PGA DFS Picks
Leverage the info from this article to complement your fantasy golf picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge, and take a look at our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The Charles Schwab Challenge
Recap from last week: What a historic tournament we witnessed last week with 50-year-old Phil Mickelson becoming the oldest player to win a major championship! He was only 1.5% or so owned in DFS so there weren’t too many users who were bullish on him, but he was in vintage form to win the season’s fourth major in style with a score of -6 – two strokes clear of Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen, so a huge congrats to Phil – the legend grows! It was a very exciting event to watch as it played quite difficult all week long – I enjoy watching players struggle from time to time on tough tracks to see how they deal with adversity and challenging shots. Such a beautiful course to take in too with many of the holes being right on the coastline, so the scenery was incredible to take in along with the amazing play.
Preview for the Charles Schwab Challenge: It’s sometimes a bit tough to come off a big high of a major championship the following week, but not this week as the Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitational event and features several talented players. This tournament started out in 1946 – this year marks its 75-year anniversary, and it has always been played at the same course, the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Zach Johnson has the all-time record at this event – it came in 2010 when he went off to shoot a -21 and win by three strokes over Brian Davis, that was his first of two wins at this venue as he won two years later in 2021. The past five winners of this event include Daniel Berger in 2020, Kevin Na in 2019, Justin Rose in 2018, Kevin Kisner in 2017, and Jordan Spieth in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $7.5M, the winner receives $1.35M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The Colonial Country Club is 7,209 yards long, is a par 70, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at this tournament over the past ten years ranges from -9 to -20, so the level of difficulty largely depends on how strong the Texas winds are blowing and how difficult the track is set up. Some of the key stats that you should have on your radar this week for your player selections are strokes gained: around the green, strokes gained: putting, driving accuracy, driving distance, and strokes gained: approach.
The field: We will see a smaller field than we have been used to seeing lately with 121 golfers in action this week, and the top 65 plus ties will move on to play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday. We will see a few of the world’s top-ranked golfers including Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, and others. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Lineup construction strategy this week: With a smaller field this week and more than 54% of golfers guaranteed to make the cut, you can be a bit more aggressive than last week when just under 52% of players made it through to the weekend. I’m always a big believer in the hybrid approach to mix in a good amount of win equity with a healthy dose of making the cut probability for all six of my players, but a stars and scrubs and balanced configurations should play well this week, as well. As always, pay attention to projected player ownership on Wednesday, and leave a few hundred dollars on the table too if you want unique lineups in the big GPPs.
All the best in your quest to win some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years, and add in some helpful pieces of information and stats, as well.
The $10K+ Range
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – Spieth cooled off a bit last week with a T30 at the PGA Championship, but that was from losing over two strokes putting – the rest of his stats were solid like we are used to seeing these days. He won four starts ago at the Texas Open, was T9 at the AT&T Byron Nelson two starts ago which was another Texas event that the Lone Star State star (say that 20 times fast) played well at, and he has six top 9’s in his last ten tournaments played. Plus, he has dominated at this event over the years with a win in 2016, two co-runner-ups in 2015 and 2017, and he has six top 10’s here in eight starts with his worst finish being a T32. He will most certainly be highly owned again this week, but he’s definitely worth paying up for. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T10, 2019 – T8, 2018 – T32, 2017 – T2, and 2016 – Won.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – Morikawa was very attractive as a DFS pick last week and is again this week too as he finished T8 at the PGA Championship and his best round came on Sunday when he shot a -4. He won five stroke-play events ago at a WGC event, more than a third of his finishes this season outside of match play are top 10’s, and his stats are just ridiculous in all categories except for around the green and putting. He finished runner-up here a year ago in his first look at Colonial, and he really could do one better this year and win it all. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – 2nd.
Patrick Reed (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – Reed is on a nice little run right now with a T8 at The Masters, a T6 at the Wells Fargo Championship, and he earned a T17 last week at the PGA Championship with solid weekend play where he shot five-under. The Texan hasn’t played this event a ton over the years, but did have his best result last year when he finished T7, and his worst finish in four career starts is a T46 which came eight years ago. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T7 and 2016 – T15.
The $9K Range
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Zalatoris continues to impress me pretty much every time he tees it up, and last week was no different as he finished T8 at the PGA Championship. In his last three majors, he has that T8, was runner-up at The Masters, and had a T6 at the U.S. Open last September. He gained over 12 strokes with his ball-striking last week, his only downfall was around the greens where he lost almost 3 strokes, but don’t expect that to happen again this week. It would be a great story if his first PGA Tour win came on home soil in Texas, and it wouldn’t really surprise anyone if it happens as he seems destined to win a lot in the not-so-distant future. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: None.
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – Ancer really caught everyone’s attention last week with his -7 in the final round to finish T8. He now has three straight top 8’s and came close to winning at the Wells Fargo Championship two starts ago. He has finished no worse than T26 in his last eight tournaments, and I also like that he had a top 15 here a year ago. Everything is working for him right now – as long as his around the green play is average this week, then he should be in the mix for another top 10 and his first PGA Tour win isn’t out of the question either. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T14, 2019 – T58, and 2018 – T52.
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – If you’re a regular reader of mine here, you know that I’m huge on Conners as his stats are incredible on a consistent basis, the results have been strong all season, and I grew up 20 minutes from him, so I have slight hometown bias towards him. I was thrilled to see him leading the pack last week at the PGA Championship after round 1, and his T17 finish wasn’t too bad at all. I think another PGA Tour win is coming for him soon, and I’m not going to miss out on it. He has four top 8’s in his last eight starts, and another three top 21’s. He has good course history here too, so that certainly doesn’t hurt either. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T19, 2019 – T31, and 2018 – T8.
The $8K Range
Charley Hoffman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – Hoffman has been playing solid golf since February – three top 10’s, another four top 18’s, and he has made nine straight cut lines. With his withdraws behind him and his stats looking very sound, he’s an automatic start every week – especially in cash games. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T13, 2018 – T52, 2017 – T24, and 2016 – T42.
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – I was a bit surprised to see Harman miss the cut line last week, but it was only because his around the green game and putting were off, and that doesn’t happen too often with the veteran. He had made eleven straight cuts prior to last week with three top 8’s, three top 18’s, and lots of other good finishes during that stretch, as well. He has made the cut here seven straight years, has two top 10’s, and finished no worse than T31 – plug him back into your lineups! Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T23, 2019 – T31, 2018 – T14, 2017 – T7, and 2016 – T25.
Matt Wallace (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – Wallace has made five straight cut lines, he finished T3 at the Texas Open last month, and two starts ago he had a T6 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He also had two twenty-something finishes at the match play events, so he’s playing well and his stats back that up too as his off-the-tee, approach, ball striking, and around the green play have been consistently strong since March. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut.
The $7K Range
Brandt Snedeker (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Snedeker has been righting the ship since early last month when he had a T6 at the Texas Open, he had a 4th with his partner at the Zurich Classic, then a T11 at the Valspar Championship, followed by a T17 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. His stats aren’t sexy at all, but he is finding a way to collect nice finishes, and that should continue this week as well since he has a good history here including his co-runner-up finish in 2015. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T19, 2018 – T42, 2017 – T48, and 2016 – T17.
Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Grillo isn’t money every week as he tends to miss cuts every once in a while, but I do like that he has two top 6’s in his last six starts, a T14, and he was T38 last week at the PGA Championship. He’s a great iron player, and his strong approach ability will certainly play well this week. He has three top 24’s here in the last four years, capped off by his T3 three years ago. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T19, 2018 – T3, 2017 – T24, and 2016 – T55.
Branden Grace (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Grace won in late February and has decent finishes since then with just one missed cut coming at THE PLAYERS Championship – two if you count the Zurich Classic team match-play event, but I don’t for obvious reasons. His stats aren’t overly easy on the eyes, but I do like that he’s been solid around the green and on the greens, which is what you want in players this week. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T19 and 2019 – T53.
The $6K Range
Vincent Whaley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.2K) – Every week there are a few players that you look at, see their pricing, and wonder what DraftKings was thinking. This week I was caught off guard by Whaley at just $6.2K as he has made the cut in eight straight events that he’s participated in, and seven of those he finished in the range of T15 to T36. I’ve been riding him for the last couple of months, and that won’t change until I see some regression. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: None.
Richy Werenski (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – These next two players in the $6K range don’t really get me too excited to play them, but they aren’t terrible picks. I think I’ll mostly be sticking to the $7K range and above this week, but Werenski interests me a bit. He is coming off a T38 at the PGA Championship last week, he was T37 in his previous start at the Wells Fargo Championship, and did have a T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T58, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – T74.
Brian Stuard (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Finding a third player in this range took me a few minutes, but I finally settled on Stuard. I like that he has two consecutive thirty-something finishes, and has only missed one cut here since 2013 with three top 32’s. Don’t make him a core play this week, but it likely wouldn’t hurt using him in a lineup or two if you’re playing at least 20 of them in GPPs. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T43, 2019 – T64, 2018 – T32, and 2017 – T24.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s PGA Championship
The 10K+ Range
- Jordan Spieth – T30
- Rory McIlroy – T49
- Bryson DeChambeau – T38
The $9K Range
- Viktor Hovland – T30
- Collin Morikawa – T8
- Patrick Reed – T17
The $8K Range
- Louis Oosthuizen – T2
- Will Zalatoris – T8
- Cameron Smith – T59
The $7K Range
- Corey Conners – T17
- Sam Burns – Withdrew in round 1
- Paul Casey – T4
The $6K Range
- Stewart Cink – T30
- Ryan Palmer – Cut
- Charl Schwartzel – Cut
