PGA DFS Picks
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Discover information from this article to enhance your fantasy golf picks for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more insightful player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
Recap from last week: Brooks Koepka had missed three straight cuts, so it was a bit of a surprise when he won last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open thanks to his closing-round six under. It was the site of his first PGA Tour win though, so perhaps it was a soft landing spot for him at a place that likely brings back fond memories that kick-started his career. It was looking like Schauffele was going to get his first win in a long time but he faltered in the final round to only shoot even par and lost to Koepka by a single stroke. It was nice to hear some fans cheering last week as the venue had 5,000 fans per day, but that, unfortunately, won’t be the case this week with no fans allowed as per COVID-19 health guidelines.
Preview for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: The PGA Tour heads back to California after spending one week in Arizona for an event that has been active since 1937. Brandt Snedeker has the all-time tournament record when he shot -22 in 2015, but perhaps the likes of Dustin Johnson or Patrick Cantlay will top that this year. The past five winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am include Nick Taylor in 2020, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter Jr. in 2018, Jordan Spieth in 2017, and Vaughn Taylor in 2016.
Enjoy more success in PGA DFS contests: Increase your odds to do better in DFS golf contests by leveraging these insightful data tools and analytics.
Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $7M, the winner receives $1.26M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Courses and key stats: We typically see a three-course rotation with a 54-hole cut line here, but this year will be different due to the global pandemic. The 2021 edition will drop the Monterey Peninsula course to play Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, with the cuts being made after round 2 on Friday. Pebble Beach is a 7,051-yard track and Spyglass Hill is 7,041 yards – both feature par 72’s and poa annua grass for the greens. The winning score over the past ten years at this event ranges from -11 to -22, so we should again see a score in this range despite the Monterey Peninsula course not being used this year. Some of the key player stats to research this week are strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: approach, birdies or better gained, and strokes gained on both par 4s and 5s.
The field: We get back a full 156-player field this week after last week’s 132 players that were in action, with the top 65 players plus ties getting to play the weekend rounds on Saturday and Sunday at the Pebble Beach course. We will see a few players who have won multiple times at this event including 5-time winner Phil Mickelson, 2-time winner Dustin Johnson, and 2-time winner Brandt Snedeker. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C+.
Notable storylines: No amateur/celebrity golfers will be playing this year due to COVID-19 restrictions, so expect rounds to move along quicker which should also offer a better television presentation as well. 2017 winner, Jordan Spieth, finally broke out of his years-long funk last week finishing T4 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open – will look to keep the momentum going, and win this event for the second time in four years. Jason Day has yet to win this tournament but has six top 6s – he will be one player to keep an eye on this week. Americans normally win this event, and in fact, just four international players have won here including last year’s winner, Nick Taylor.
Lineup construction strategy this week: Going back to the full-field of players means that getting 5 or 6 players from each lineup into the weekend will be challenging. For cash lineups, you will likely want to keep your builds in the $7K to $9K range, but for GPP contests you might want to get more adventurous by using players from each range – try to avoid using more than one $6K player on any given lineup though as the range is total crap this week. Keep an eye on ownership projections come Wednesday, and leave a few hundred dollars on the table to better your chances of creating unique configurations and winning GPPs outright.
All the best for mustering up some contest wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $11.3K) – Cantlay plays great golf pretty much every time he tees it up – he won four starts ago at the ZOZO Championship, is coming off a solo 2nd at The American Express with 29 birdies, was T8 at the Shriners, T17 at the Masters, and has finished no worse than T43 this season which came at the U.S. Open. The Cali-kid plays superb at most courses but especially in his home state, so expect another elite finish for him this week. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T11 and 2018 – T35.
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $12.0K) – I originally had Dustin Johnson here but since he has withdrawn I’m forced to use Daniel Berger here which isn’t so bad, even with him burning me last week by missing the cut on the number. Berger was on a good roll with back-to-back top 10’s and finishing no worse than T34 in six starts prior to last week’s blunder. He should be motivated to rebound this week and did have a top 5 here last year so he’s perfectly comfortable on these tracks. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T5.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – Casey has been excellent so far in 2021 as he opened with a T8 at The American Express, won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic on the European Tour, and was T12 last week at the Saudi International in a quality field. His season got off to a slow start but it looks like he’s gearing up for a big year. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2019 – 2nd and 2018 – T8.
The $9K Range
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Zalatoris’ stock just keeps rising as he’s coming off a T17 last week thanks to his 64 in round three, he was T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open two starts ago, and between the Korn Ferry Tour and the PGA Tour he has been top 10 in almost 60% of his last 24 starts. He’s a threat to become a multiple-major winner on the PGA Tour – he’s that talented, so try to be ahead of the curve and keeping rolling the young Californian into your lineups on a weekly basis. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2018 – T68.
Cameron Davis (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – Davis is 7 for 8 this season, was solo 3rd two starts ago at The American Express, had a T6 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and has finished no worse than T32 this year. The 25-year-old Aussie can bomb it off the tee, makes lots of eagles and birdies, and I’m fairly bullish on his short and long-term future. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T38, 2019 – T59, 2018 – Cut.
Francesco Molinari (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – Molinari has moved his family to California full time and is starting to settle in – case in point, he has back to back top 10’s and is poised for another this week. His stats are looking really nice now too as he’s top 17 in strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: around the green, strokes gained: tee to green, and strokes gained: total. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: none.
The $8K Range
Kevin Streelman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – If you’re wondering why Streelman’s salary number is so high this week it’s likely because of his incredible finishes at this event over the past five years finishing anywhere from runner-up to T17, wow! He’s coming off a T22 last week in Arizona, has only missed one cut in his last five starts, and appears ready to have another top 20 at this tournament. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – 2nd, 2019 – T7, 2018 – 6th, 2017 – T14, and 2016 – T17.
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – Harman is one of the safest plays this week as he has only missed one cut in 11 starts this season, was T8 two starts ago at The American Express, and has 9 top 38’s to boot. He also has four straight events where he’s made at least one eagle which is a positive indicator as well. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: none.
Matt Jones (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – Jones has put together a sound stretch of golf with eight straight cuts made and he has collected four top 30’s during that span including last week’s T30 at an event that he had been quite mediocre at. He has been quite good at this tournament, so you can feel confident using Jones as an anchor for some of your lineups, especially in cash ones. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T5, 2019 – T53, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T23, and 2016 – T11.
The $7K Range
Bo Hoag (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Hoag had a tough stretch earlier this season when he missed five straight cut lines, but has rebounded well missing only one cut in his last six starts and finishing anywhere from T16 to T36 in the tournaments he played four rounds at. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut.
Chris Kirk (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Kirk was rocking and rolling before he stumbled last week to miss the cut, but prior he had a runner-up finish at the Sony Open, had made six straight cuts, and had three top 18’s. It looks like he’s putting his addiction issues behind him and seems focused on golf again, and also looks happy and healthy which is wonderful to see. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T39.
Doug Ghim (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Ghim is a player that keeps popping up on my radar and for good reason as he’s 7 for 9 this season, had a T5 two starts ago, and has five top 25’s to date. He’s starting to play up to his potential and I will keep riding him for the foreseeable future as a result. He has been unsuccessful at this event over his first two years, but I think he breaks through this year. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – Cut.
The $6K Range
Davis Riley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – Riley won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and is looking to find his stride on the PGA Tour – the momentum may start building now after his T58 last week and he did have a 5 under round 2 so that’s a positive, as well. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: none.
Ted Potter Jr. (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – It’s very much slim pickings this week in the $6K range, so I had to dig down deep and place some faith in Potter Jr. as he won this event three years ago. He had missed his first 8 cuts this season but has made his last two and was T18 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. I sure wouldn’t put Potter Jr. on a $200 lineup, but if you are throwing in a bunch of 25 cent ones into a GPP then you could gently throw Potter into one (and only one!) of them. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – Won.
Chase Seiffert (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Seiffert has a decent mini-streak alive at the moment with just one missed cut in his last four events, and two starts ago he finished T12 at The American Express. He did make the cut here last year in his only start at this event too, so perhaps he can extend his current cuts made streak to three this week. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T50.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open
The $10K+ Range
- Xander Schauffele – T2
- Jon Rahm – T13
- Justin Thomas – T13
The $9K Range
- Daniel Berger – Cut
- Ryan Palmer – T42
- Hideki Matsuyama – T42
The $8K Range
- Brian Harman – T36
- Louis Oosthuizen – T11
- Gary Woodland – Cut
The $7K Range
- Carlos Ortiz – T4
- Patton Kizzire – T50
- Corey Conners – T17
The $6K Range
- Matt Jones – T30
- Cameron Tringale – T17
- Kyle Stanley – T36
