NFL Pick’em Super Bowl LV

Super Bowl LV Preview

We are in for a Grand Finale to what has been a wild NFL season. Tom Brady continues to rewrite the history books by leading the Bucs to the Super Bowl. This is the first time in NFL history that the home team hosting the Super Bowl has ever made it to the big game. The Chiefs are looking to become a part of history as well by winning a Super Bowl in back-to-back years. Even their accomplishment, though, would be a “been there, done that” moment for Brady as the last team to repeat as Super Bowl Champions were the Patriots in 2003 and 2004 when Brady was picking up his second and third rings. Fun fact, he lets his kids use those rings as fishing lures now.

If you’ve been following our weekly pick’em column all season, you’ll know we had a pretty successful year. We went 170-86 (66%) on straight-up picks and 132-123 (52%) against the spread. Our over/under picks was the only thing that didn’t make the 50% mark, but just barely at a record of 124-130 (49%). Overall, this was great accuracy against the industry and ranked top 15 at Tallysight among 780 industry experts. We’re bringing the same process that brought us success throughout the regular season and through the playoffs to the Super Bowl to help provide you picks for the big game. We have a lot to look over for the biggest betting event of the year, so let’s get to it.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 56.5)

• The Chiefs are averaging 29.6 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
• The Bucs have allowed 22.3 PPG this season.
• The Bucs are averaging 30.7 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
• The Chiefs have allowed 22.4 PPG overall this season and 26.3 PPG over their last three games.
• The Bucs are 11-8 ATS this season.
• The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. the Chiefs.
• Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS in the Super Bowl.
• The Chiefs are 8-10 ATS this season.
• No team with a sub-.500 ATS record on the season has ever won a Super Bowl.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games.
• The favorite is 3-1 ATS in the last four Super Bowls.
• The favorite is 36-18 straight-up all-time in the Super Bowl.
• The OVER is 11-8 for the Bucs this season.
• The OVER is 3-1 in the last four games for the Bucs.
• The OVER is 9-9 for the Chiefs this season.
• The UNDER has hit in the last two Super Bowls.
• Vegas has an implied total of 29.8-26.8 in favor of the Chiefs.
• The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the under hitting.

What a battle we have on our hands here. These teams faced each other in Week 12 of the regular season, and with that being a solid recent sample, that’s the first thing we want to turn our attention to. The Chiefs won that matchup, 27-24. The Chiefs jumped out to a huge lead early on, winning 17-0 after the first quarter thanks to two Tyreek Hill TDs. The Bucs were actually held to just 10 points in that game up until the fourth quarter, where they managed to make things interesting with two Mike Evans TDs. Here is how that game shook out statistically, per Pro Football Reference.

From this, we see a few big takeaways. The Chiefs simply moved the ball better. They put up 543 total yards, which was the most the Bucs had allowed to any team all season. The Bucs only allowed more than 400 total yards to their opponent three other times on the season. The Chiefs also dominated in time of possession, which is a huge key to winning games and winning the Super Bowl, and covering ATS. Teams that have won the time of possession battle in the Super Bowl are 38-13-3 ATS all-time. Lastly, the Chiefs won the turnover battle by coughing it up just once compared to twice for the Bucs. Unsurprisingly, this is always a big key in winning games and covering ATS in the Super Bowl. Teams that have lost the turnover battle in the Super Bowl are just 8-35-8 ATS all-time. This is worth noting as well, considering Tom Brady threw three picks against the Packers in the Conference Championship despite the Bucs winning. All-in-all, this was a solid win for the Chiefs on the road, and you can’t really poke a lot of holes in it.

For a larger sample of how these teams compare, let’s explore their full-season stats a bit. When it comes to offensive points per game, the Bucs hold the edge here, ranking second-most in the league. Despite that, the Chiefs accumulated the most total yards on offense this season and secured more first downs than any other team in the league. The Chiefs also have the fourth-fewest turnovers in the league this season, which is better than the Bucs. Neither team has been dominant overall when it comes to their time of possession, but the Chiefs have the advantage there. When it comes to efficiency, the Chiefs have been better at converting third downs, but the Bucs have been more efficient in the red zone, having converted 64.9% of red-zone drives into a score. This is where the Chiefs may run into a problem, as their defense allowed opponents to score on 74% of RZ drives, which was the worst in the league.

We see more advantages in favor of the Bucs when we look at defensive ranks. While both defenses rank top-10 overall in points allowed to their opponents, the Bucs were more stingy all season. They had the best rushing defense in the league and ranked top five in fewest first downs allowed and most turnovers forced. While the Chiefs ranked 10th in fewest points allowed to their opponents, they were mostly average across all measures. Even in their Week 12 matchup against the Bucs, the Chiefs allowed 342 passing yards, which was the second-most they allowed to an opponent all season.

When you boil everything down, we have an obviously close matchup on our hands here. The better record on the season and the head-to-head win are the key factors driving the Chiefs towards being the favorite. While those are solid factors to consider, you cannot compare the career postseason experience Tom Brady brings to the table and the Super Bowl experience and the success he has in his career. The Bucs have been underdogs in each of the last two games in the playoffs and overcame the odds. I would bet on them doing it again and making history here on Sunday.

Final Prediction: Buccaneers win 27-23

Picks: Bucs +3, Under 56.5