PGA DFS Picks
Decide on the information you value from this article to elevate your fantasy golf picks for the Valspar Championship, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The Valspar Championship
Recap from last week: We get stroke-play back this week after taking in team match-play a week ago for the Zurich Classic – congrats to the dynamic duo of Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman for winning in a playoff against Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel. I always enjoy seeing match-play events because they are rare and different, and I was profitable last week playing DFS, but my much-preferred setup is traditional stroke-play tournaments that feature large fields and have cut lines, much like this week, really.
Preview for the Valspar Championship: The Valspar Championship was canceled in 2020 due to the pandemic, but we get it back this year and 20% of fans will be able to take it in live. This event dates back to the year 2000 when it was originally named the Tampa Bay Classic and was won by John Huston with a score of -13. From the beginning, this tournament has been played on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida, just north of Tampa Bay, and this year’s edition will maintain that tradition. Paul Casey has won the last two Valspar Championships, and K.J. Choi and Retief Goosen are two other players who have won this tournament more than once. Casey won by a single stroke in 2019 over Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen, with a final score of just -8. The past five winners of this event including the aforementioned Paul Casey in 2019 and in 2018, Adam Hadwin in 2017, Charl Schwartzel in 2016, and Jordan Spieth in 2015.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $6.9M, the winner receives $1.242M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is 7,340 yards, it’s a par 71, and the greens are Bermuda – typical on Florida tracks. The winning score over the past ten installments of this tournament ranges from -7 to -14, so as you can see, the course is fairly challenging and also one of the more popular courses on the PGA Tour according to the golfers themselves. Some of the key stats that you should be focused on for this week are strokes gained: around the green, strokes gained: approach, driving accuracy, strokes gained: off-the-tee, and strokes gained: tee-to-green. Note that none of the key stats for this week are super-polarizing.
The field: We will see 156 players in action this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 on Friday will get to play the weekend rounds 3 and 4 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. The fields here are usually pretty solid, and this year is shaping up good so far with the world’s top-ranked player, Dustin Johnson teeing it up, PLAYERS Champion Justin Thomas will be here, two-time defending champ Paul Casey is in action, along with Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, and many other talented players will be competing this week, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Lineup construction strategy this week: There will be lots of opportunities to build great-looking lineups this week, but with a full field and a cut line, you will want to focus on value players who regularly make cut lines and have upside. My usual preferred lineup configuration is hybrid style for my core builds, but I also throw in several stars and scrubs and balanced lineups for good measure, and this week will be no different. If you want lineups that are fairly original in GPPs, then be sure to leave money on the table and keep your total ownership for each lineup in the 60%-80% range with at least one player at 5% or under based on projected ownership numbers.
All the best in your journey to win some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years, and add in some helpful pieces of information and stats, as well.
The $10K+ Range
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $11.5K) – Thomas can be counted on for consistent top 10 results and one to three wins per season. He won THE PLAYERS Championship three starts ago, has three other top 4’s including a runner-up finish at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, and is coming off a T21 at The Masters. JT is also having his best putting season to date, and we know every other club in his bag is solid, so he’s a constant threat to win on any given week. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2017- Cut and 2016 – T18.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – Casey is the man to beat this week as he has won the last two times this tournament was played, and comes in playing quite well. He was on a huge run there from late January to mid-March where he won on the European Tour and finished no worse than T12 in six starts, but he did miss the cut in his most recent start which was at the RBC Heritage – don’t fault him for it though. He should be fully rested now as he didn’t play in the team match-play last week, and will be hungry to three-peat this week. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Won and 2018 – Won.
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – World numero uno, Johnson, had a tough recent four-tournament stretch where his best finish was a T28 and he actually missed the cut at The Masters. He showed signs of life in his most recent start though at the RBC Heritage where he gained strokes in all major stat categories except for approach and around the green, and finished T13. Let’s also not forget that he won The Masters last November and has five top 11’s on the season. This week will tell us a lot regarding if he’s truly back to super-elite form again or not, but regardless, I do expect to see a top 10 out of DJ this week as he gets his game back to where it needs to be for the PGA Championship next month. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T6.
The $9K Range
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – Conners adjusted his putting approach and it’s starting to pay huge dividends as he has five straight top 14’s outside of match-play, four of those were top 8’s, and I can smell a win coming for him soon. He lost almost 3.5 strokes in his short game at The Masters, and still placed T8. A Canadian (Adam Hadwin) won here four years ago, and another one could very well win this year – Conners just needs his around the green play to be decent and he should be in contention come Sunday. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T16.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – If we are looking closely at strong around the green players this week, then Scheffler should be firmly on our radars as he is fantastic with gaining strokes in that department – he only has one negative over his last 12 starts. He has two top 7’s in his last six starts, two other top 20’s during that stretch, was runner-up at the WGC match-play event, and is coming off a T8 last week at the Zurich Classic where he was partnered up with Bubba Watson. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – Henley is an approach and ball-striking monster, and comes into this week on fire with a T9 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage despite losing almost 3 strokes putting, he was T3 at The Honda Classic, and has four top 9’s on the campaign in 13 starts. If his extremely impressive and consistent irons hold true again this week, then he should net himself another top 10. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T42, 2017 – T9, 2016 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Chris Kirk (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – When I come across a hot player, I like to stay on the bandwagon until I see a fall-off. Kirk is riding high right now with back-to-back top 7’s outside of last week, he was T8 five starts ago, had a runner-up at the Sony Open earlier this year, and just keeps piling up top 25’s and playing weekend golf. He’s my favorite mid-tier value play for the week, and I think he’s under-priced by a few hundred dollars – jump on him. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T49, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T42.
Charley Hoffman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – When Hoffman isn’t withdrawing from tournaments he tends to do pretty well, especially as of late as he was runner-up two starts ago at the Texas Open, he has four top 18’s in his last seven starts, and was T11 last week at the team match-play event. He’s been striping it so well this season and his flat stick has been very solid lately too – only losing strokes to the field once over his past eight events (potentially nine as we don’t have shot link data from the Corales event). Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T18, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T11.
Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – I had some degree of difficulty picking my third favorite golfer in this range as I like Kirk and Hoffman by a landslide, but I don’t mind Grillo, as well. His off-the-tee and approach stats immediately jump out at me, plus he’s been a net gainer in the ball-striking department for 16 straight events and it’s likely actually 18 but there are two events in that stretch with no shot link data to draw from. He was runner-up at the RBC Heritage in his most recent appearance, he was T6 at the Corales, and had two other top 21’s in his last five events played. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
The $7K Range
Keegan Bradley (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Bradley is feeling pretty good about himself right about now as he and Brendan Steele are coming off a T4 at the Zurich Classic last week, and he has five top 30’s in his last six starts including a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If his putter is working this week then he will have another good result, because his irons and wedges are spot on week after week. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T31, 2017 – T58, and 2016 – Cut.
Peter Uihlein (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – It appears as though Uihlein has found something lately, because since mid last month he has a win and a runner-up finish on the Korn Ferry Tour, and he and Richy Werenski combined to finish solo 3rd last week at the team event. I’m not sure that we can fully trust him this week, but I do like how he’s trending over the last month or so, and he has made four straight cuts on the PGA Tour, five if you count last week. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T65.
Doug Ghim (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – I really like Ghim’s approach play, his ball-striking, and his tee-to-green play, he just needs to be better around and on the greens really to pop for top 10’s more often. He and Justin Suh were 11th last week, he has four top 44’s over his last five starts, and don’t forget that he was right in contention at THE PLAYERS last month before imploding in round 4 with a 78. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
The $6K Range
Chase Seiffert (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – Seiffert is perhaps the only $6K golfer that I actually somewhat trust to make the cut for me this week – the field is very mid and top-heavy, in my opinion. He has made five straight cuts and seven of his last eight (outside of last week’s team match-play), he was T3 at The Honda Classic and has three other top 18’s during this stretch. If he can ever figure out a way to fix his mediocre putting, then we would see him on leaderboards more regularly as he’s very dialed in with his long irons and wedges on a regular basis. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
James Hahn (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Hahn is a decent value play as he has four top 10’s this season, so he pops from time to time, and that’s something I really value in a low-tier player. He has also only missed four cuts in 14 starts this season, so he’s relatively safe compared to a lot of the other names in the $6K range. Don’t make him a core play by any means this week, but feel free to toss him into one or two GPP lineups. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2017 – T41 and 2016 – Cut.
Tom Lewis (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Lewis and Thomas Pieters collaborated to finish T8 last week, he’s coming off a T25 at the RBC Heritage and has made four consecutive cut lines in addition to last week. He has also been consistent with his birdies made over those four events with exactly 15 in each one of them. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Results of the 15 players I picked for the previous PGA Tour stroke-play event – the RBC Heritage
The 10K+ Range
- Webb Simpson – T9
- Collin Morikawa – T7
- Patrick Cantlay – Cut
The $9K Range
- Will Zalatoris – T42
- Matthew Fitzpatrick – T4
- Corey Conners – T4
The $8K Range
- Brian Harman – T13
- Abraham Ancer – T18
- Harris English – Cut
The $7K Range
- Charley Hoffman – T18
- Chris Kirk – T7
- Michael Thompson – T42
The $6K Range
- Doug Ghim – T33
- Chase Seiffert – T42
- Patton Kizzire – Cut
