2022 NFL STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
The Los Angeles Rams took home the Lombardi Trophy at the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season. And, like a fantasy football champion commonly holding the last first-round pick the following season, the Rams will enter the 2022 NFL season with the most difficult strength of schedule (SOS), at least on paper.
Part of the reason for that is something that should be very exciting to watch in 2022. The AFC West and NFC West, the two toughest divisions in the NFL (not counting the Seahawks) are matched up this season in their out-of-conference slate. This creates a relatively brutal schedule for most of the teams in both divisions. On the flip side, the NFC East has what looks to be the easiest schedule of all the divisions.
There are a variety of angles from which to speculate and project strength of schedule, the most common being the combined winning percentage of a team’s opponents the previous season. This is a simple and widely used method when forecasting the difficulty of future opponents. But you can find that anywhere.
I decided to look a little deeper for this article. Previous season opponent winning percentage is part of the equation, but that looks at a historical result. I also wanted to factor in future predictions. I created a strength of schedule scoring system based on the following information:
- 2022 Record (Vegas odds)
- Opponents’ 2021 winning percentage
- 2022 Power Rankings
- Opponents’ 2021 point differential (average points scored minus average points against)
I applied a weighting system in the order listed above, with 2022 projected record based on current Vegas odds receiving the most weight and point differential (2021) receiving the least. The Power Rankings represent an average of 10 sets of rankings from around the industry. I will start with the Rams at the most difficult SOS score and go through each team, from hardest to easiest SOS, presenting the following information:
- SOS Score
- 2021 Record
- 2022 Projected Wins
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%
At the conclusion of the article is the full NFL schedule, with each team’s opponents, color-coded based on the individual team score and showing the SOS scores for each team’s full schedule.
1 – Los Angeles Rams
- SOS Score: 0.83
- 2021 Record: 12-5
- 2022 Projected Wins: 10.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.510
2 – Kansas City Chiefs
- SOS Score: 1.83
- 2021 Record: 12-5
- 2022 Projected Wins: 10.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.533
3 – Las Vegas Raiders
- SOS Score: 5.40
- 2021 Record: 10-7
- 2022 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.528
4 – Arizona Cardinals
- SOS Score: 6.14
- 2021 Record: 11-6
- 2022 Projected Wins: 9.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.543
5 – Seattle Seahawks
- SOS Score: 9.25
- 2021 Record: 7-10
- 2022 Projected Wins: 5.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.517
6 – Los Angeles Chargers
- SOS Score: 10.34
- 2021 Record: 9-8
- 2022 Projected Wins: 10.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.519
7 – Pittsburgh Steelers
- SOS Score: 10.52
- 2021 Record: 9-7-1
- 2022 Projected Wins: 7.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.512
8 – Atlanta Falcons
- SOS Score: 11.00
- 2021 Record: 7-10
- 2022 Projected Wins: 4.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.524
9 – Denver Broncos
- SOS Score: 11.40
- 2021 Record: 7-10
- 2022 Projected Wins: 10.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.509
10 – San Francisco 49ers
- SOS Score: 12.45
- 2021 Record: 10-7
- 2022 Projected Wins: 9.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.533
11 – Carolina Panthers
- SOS Score: 12.80
- 2021 Record: 5-12
- 2022 Projected Wins: 5.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.512
12 – Cincinnati Bengals
- SOS Score: 13.20
- 2021 Record: 10-7
- 2022 Projected Wins: 9.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.536
13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- SOS Score: 13.22
- 2021 Record: 13-4
- 2022 Projected Wins: 11.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.535
14 – New Orleans Saints
- SOS Score: 13.22
- 2021 Record: 9-8
- 2022 Projected Wins: 7.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.528
15 – Miami Dolphins
- SOS Score: 15.50
- 2021 Record: 9-8
- 2022 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.481
16 – New England Patriots
- SOS Score: 16.15
- 2021 Record: 11-6
- 2022 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.498
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17 – New York Jets
- SOS Score: 16.19
- 2021 Record: 4-13
- 2022 Projected Wins: 5.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.495
18 – Cleveland Browns
- SOS Score: 16.87
- 2021 Record: 8-9
- 2022 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.495
19 – Baltimore Ravens
- SOS Score: 17.38
- 2021 Record: 8-9
- 2022 Projected Wins: 9.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.474
20 – Tennessee Titans
- SOS Score: 17.79
- 2021 Record: 12-5
- 2022 Projected Wins: 9.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.471
21 – Buffalo Bills
- SOS Score: 18.31
- 2021 Record: 11-6
- 2022 Projected Wins: 11.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.512
22 – Houston Texans
- SOS Score: 21.24
- 2021 Record: 4-13
- 2022 Projected Wins: 4.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.488
23 – Jacksonville Jaguars
- SOS Score: 23.09
- 2021 Record: 3-14
- 2022 Projected Wins: 6.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.469
24 – Indianapolis Colts
- SOS Score: 26.75
- 2021 Record: 9-8
- 2022 Projected Wins: 9.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.469
25 – Green Bay Packers
- SOS Score: 26.76
- 2021 Record: 13-4
- 2022 Projected Wins: 11.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.478
26 – Minnesota Vikings
- SOS Score: 26.97
- 2021 Record: 8-9
- 2022 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.484
27 – Chicago Bears
- SOS Score: 28.07
- 2021 Record: 6-11
- 2022 Projected Wins: 6.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.471
28 – Dallas Cowboys
- SOS Score: 29.22
- 2021 Record: 12-5
- 2022 Projected Wins: 10.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.462
29 – Detroit Lions
- SOS Score: 29.79
- 2021 Record: 3-13-1
- 2022 Projected Wins: 6.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.467
30 – Washington Commanders
- SOS Score: 30.48
- 2021 Record: 7-10
- 2022 Projected Wins: 7.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.462
31 – Philadelphia Eagles
- SOS Score: 33.56
- 2021 Record: 9-8
- 2022 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.464
32 – New York Giants
- SOS Score: 33.63
- 2021 Record: 4-13
- 2022 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Opponents’ 2021 Win%: 0.465
The following are the averaged industry Power Rankings that were used for the scoring system:
As promised, I’ll leave you with the entire 2022 NFL schedule, with each team’s opponents color-coded based on the SOS score. This allows you to better visualize a team’s projected SOS across each week of the season. The full season SOS scores are also included for each team, and the teams are sorted in the same order as presented in this article, from hardest to easiest SOS.
