2024 Home Run Derby Preview
The Home Run Derby is set for Monday, July 15 at 8 PM ET in Arlington Texas. Eight sluggers are ready to face off, but the format is slightly different compared to years past. The first major change you will notice is that it is no longer an 8-man single-elimination bracket to determine the winner. There will be no more unlucky draws due to seeding, as all eight players will take their turn, with the top four advancing to the next round. Once the final four are determined, they will go back to the head-to-head format in a four-man bracket to determine the winner. While previously each round was based solely on a time limit, this year they are making sure no one sees significantly more pitches. A batter’s round will end after three minutes or 40 total pitches, whichever comes first. The finals will be slightly shorter, with the limit being two minutes or 27 pitches. The final major change is that they are attempting to capture some of the magic of the old home run derby format by reintroducing the concept of outs. Instead of getting bonus time like in previous years, they will now be given three bonus outs (and a fourth bonus out if they hit two home runs farther than 440 feet). These aren’t timed, so they can take as many pitches as they want to wait for that perfect swing. With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the eight participants.
Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
2024 Home Runs: 24 | Odds (DK): +340
Pete Alonso is the odds-on favorite, not only because of his massive power but also for his experience with the derby. It’s essentially an extremely fast-paced batting practice in a sold-out stadium on national television, and that environment is something that can’t be replicated or practiced. Alonso has competed in the event four times and won it twice, so nerves will be the last thing on his mind. It is worth noting that he got bounced in the first round last year and hasn’t hit more than 23 in a round since 2021. While I think his experience will lead to a solid performance, I’m not confident enough in a victory to want to bet on him as the favorite.
Marcell Ozuna, DH, Braves
2024 Home Runs: 24 | Odds (DK): +380
Marcell Ozuna is one of the premier sluggers in the league, boasting a .636 xSLG, a 93.2 mph average exit velocity, and a 55.4% hard-hit rate that all rank in the top five percent of the league or better. He hits the ball harder than most, so he’ll have no problem getting balls out of the park quickly to keep the pitches coming in. If he can adjust to the environment as a derby first-timer, he has as good of a shot to win as anyone.
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
2024 Home Runs: 27 | Odds (DK): +475
Gunnar Henderson isn’t just one of the best home run hitters, but one of the best players overall. He looks like he has a real chance to win the AL MVP Award, as he’s currently slashing .288/.377/.588 and has the most home runs out of anyone participating in the derby. His 57.9% hard-hit rate ranks in the top one percent of the league, and no situation is too much for the young superstar to handle. I think he is right up there with Alonso and Ozuna in his potential to win it all, but you can bet on him at a much more appealing +475.
Adolis Garcia, OF, Rangers
2024 Home Runs: 17 | Odds (DK): +500
Adolis Garcia is representing the hometown Rangers in the derby, and this will be the second straight season that he is competing in it. His raw power is up there with the best of them, with his 116.1 mph exit velocity ranking in the top two percent of the league, despite having a down year with a .215 batting average. His previous derby experience and having the Texas crowd behind him should give him a boost, although he did get eliminated in the first round last year with only 17 home runs. He definitely has the potential to win it all, but I wouldn’t consider him in the same tier as the top three guys.
Bobby Witt Jr, SS, Royals
2024 Home Runs: 15 | Odds (DK): +550
The other guy in the running for AL MVP, Bobby Witt Jr., has been sensational this season. Although a speedy shortstop isn’t the typical prototype for the home run derby, Witt Jr. is clearly deserving of the spot. His max exit velocity this season actually ranks in the top one percent of the league, topping out at 116.9 mph. His .598 xSLG and 49.2% hard-hit rate show that he has no problem hitting the ball hard and out of the ballpark. He’s not as physically big as many of the other participants, which adds the risk of fatigue affecting him the farther he advances, but he’s too good of a player to completely disregard.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Dodgers
2024 Home Runs: 19 | Odds (DK): +1000
The one thing that Teoscar Hernandez has always excelled at throughout his career is hitting the ball hard. This year is no exception, with his 14.8% barrel rate leading him to a bounceback season in his first year with the Dodgers. He already has 19 home runs at the break, only 6 shy of the 26 he hit last year, and putting him on pace to set a new career-high in the stat. Teoscar is a very similar player to a guy like Adolis Garcia, so it’s a little surprising to see his odds at +1000. He is my second favorite bet, behind Gunnar Henderson.
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Guardians
2024 Home Runs: 23 | Odds (DK): +1300
Jose Ramirez is another returning participant, hitting 17 and being eliminated in the first round in 2022. He may have a better shot this year though, as he has found a new power stroke for the 2024 season. After hitting 24 last year, he already has 23 bombs this year, also setting himself up for a personal best in homers. He has a 116.6 mph max exit velocity, although doesn’t do it as consistently as some of his competition, with his average exit velocity being only 89.6 mph. I think he can improve on his previous performance, but don’t see him taking home the trophy.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies
2024 Home Runs: 11 | Odds (DK): +1600
Alec Bohm is having a true breakout season for the Phillies this year, although his inclusion in the derby is surprising, considering he only has 11 home runs. His 110 mph max exit velocity, 45.2% hard-hit rate, and 90.4 mph average exit velocity are all good but not great numbers. He is more of a line-drive hitter which has worked great for him over his career, but the home run derby is an entirely different game. Line-drive hitters have struggled in the past, being less likely to hit the long home runs that earn them bonus time and leaving a lot of balls falling just short on the warning track. I’ll be rooting for Bohm and maybe he can make it out of the first round but don’t imagine a path for him winning the whole thing.
