Super Bowl Player Props
Super Bowl 58 is upon us, and we are looking at a rematch of Super Bowl 54. There are many storylines attached to this Super Bowl, but not one bigger than the potential start – or continuation? – of a dynasty featuring the Kansas City Chiefs. There are many, many lines to bet on when it comes to the Super Bowl, from what the coin toss result will be to whether Taylor Swift and Jason Kelce will kiss on live broadcast (current odds are at -120).
It’s always a fun time for the betting community, but we are seeing so many more bets coming in with the recent legalization of it across the U.S. The AGA (American Gambling Association) projects that a record 67.8 million people will place a bet for the Super Bowl. Not all these bettors will be winners, but utilizing the picks below will help your chances at being one of the lucky few.
Rashee Rice UNDER 66.5 receiving yards (-115 @ Hard Rock)
The dynasty darling for the fantasy community has been nothing short of spectacular for a lackluster Chiefs receiving corp. Saying KC nailed their 2nd round pick this year would be a complete disservice to Rashee Rice as he was tied with a myriad of other rookie receivers for receiving TDs (7) and trailed only Puka Nacua in receiving yards and receptions amongst rookies. He averaged just under 5 receptions and 60 yards per game. Just this alone should be enough to take the under, right? I’ll do you one better.
San Francisco was a defense that had the 3rd most pass attempts against them throughout the season. This was in part because they allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards on the season, but also because their offense caused other teams to play from behind. San Francisco allowed only 6.4 yards per pass attempt (good for 5th on the year). In fact, San Francisco allowed a receiver to eclipse 67 yards or more only 13 times all season (15 if you include the playoffs). Long story short, this defense is STOUT and Rice could find his receiving total diminished because of it.
Brock Purdy UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 @ Hard Rock)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, slot in the obligatory “you hate Purdy because he doesn’t have draft capital” or “he’s a game manager.” These are wrong. Brock Purdy is one of the better QBs in the NFL, and the guy can absolutely ball out. This has nothing to do with the talent of Purdy, but more to do with both the Chiefs defense and the 49ers likely offensive gameplan. Purdy has thrown for 2 or more touchdowns nine times this season (none in the playoffs) which means that this under hits roughly 44% of the time this season. Not a very promising number.
The Chiefs defense has allowed the 4th fewest passing yards, 3rd fewest yards per passing attempt, and 4th fewest passing touchdowns all season. Repeating what I said above, this defense is STOUT. However, the Chiefs defense has allowed 4.5 yards per carry which is tied for 4th most in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey averages 91 yards a game which likely means the 49ers are going to utilize him and the run game a lot. It’s likely that the 49ers score the majority of their points on the ground in this one.
Justin Watson UNDER 1.5 receptions
What more can we say about this Chiefs’ passing game that hasn’t already been said all season? An abysmal 10.4 yards per reception, a league-leading number of dropped passes, and what seems to be one of the most penalized offensive teams in the league just sent this Chiefs offense into disarray. That’s not to say they haven’t turned things on of late, but we have seen that happen by utilizing Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire more in the pass game. Let’s not forget that McKinnon is slated to return for the Super Bowl as well. Kelce is magnificent and Rice will get his targets which leaves crumbs to be had between MVS, Watson, James, Toney, and Gray.
Justin Watson seemed to be the lone bright spot early for this Chiefs offense. He was familiar with the scheme and Mahomes trusted him to come down with catches. All of this switched after a season high 5 receptions against the Eagles on that week 11 Thursday night. Since that game, Watson has had 2 or more receptions just twice. You read that right. In the final 7 weeks of the regular season and the 3 playoff games the Chiefs have played, Watson has had 2 or more receptions just 20% of the time. I’m banking on him continuing the trend here.
