Super Bowl LVIII Preview
It’s finally here. It is that time of year that every football fan eagerly anticipates. The Super Bowl. While only the fans of two teams will go into the game with an exuberant amount of excitement, anyone who enjoys watching football will be sitting down with their fried food, chips and dip, and refreshments to see who comes out on top. This year’s game is not the game many people wanted. When the conference championships were held there were a lot of Ravens and Lions fans who had not been before, all in the hopes that we would see a game made up of teams that don’t have a history of making it to the ultimate stage. But that was not meant to be and here we are, with the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs heading to the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, to face off head-to-head in an attempt to be the team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy when the game clock hits 00:00.
Chiefs’ Path to the Super Bowl
Kansas City is no stranger to the postseason, having made the playoffs in 10 of Andy Reid’s 11 seasons as the head coach. They have also made it to the Super Bowl four of the last five years. The team is led by two-time NFL QB Patrick Mahomes who has, in Travis Kelce, a future Hall of Fame tight end to target. This connection has paid huge dividends. When Mahomes hit Kelce for a TD in their AFC Championship game win over the Baltimore Ravens, it was their 17th touchdown connection in the playoffs, setting a record. Still, the way they got into the playoffs this year was different than in the past. Just looking at their 11-6 record, it would be easy to say “Nothing to see here,” and assume the Chiefs were still dominating their way to an AFC West division title and another playoff berth, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. Kansas City’s offense, a unit that is typically high-powered and nearly impossible to stop, had a hard time even cracking the top-10 in total yards and ranked 15th in scoring with 21.8 points per game. Uncharacteristically, their defense was the strength of the team, boasting a unit that was second in yards allowed (289.8 per game) and second in scoring (17.3 points per game). But the inconsistent play on offense (losing games to teams like the Broncos and Raiders) led to them earning the No. 3 seed, forcing them to go on the road in the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. This caused many to question whether they could once again make it to the big game. Ultimately, Reid and Mahomes proved once again that you should not bet against them in the playoffs. But it wasn’t easy. Other than a Wild Card round matchup against the Dolphins, the Chiefs won their other two playoff games (against the Bills and the Ravens) by a total of 10 points. The Bills game was an especially back-and-forth affair with seven lead changes. Although the Chiefs never trailed against the Ravens, Baltimore had plenty of opportunities to put themselves in a position to win the game. In the end, the defending champions proved to be a little too much to handle.
49ers’ Path to the Super Bowl
The 49ers, on the other hand, at 12-5 managed to field one of the most complete and consistent teams in the NFL, with excellent play on both sides of the ball. While QB Brock Purdy had his doubters coming into the season, and let’s be honest, still has some, he played well enough to silence most of his critics. Purdy finished the year with 4,280 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. The 49ers offense finished second in the NFL in both yards per game (398.4) and points per game (28.9). Some would like to diminish Purdy’s contribution by calling him a “system QB,” but the 24-year-old QB managed to execute Shanahan’s system very well. San Francisco also boasts, arguably, the league’s most dynamic group of position players with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. But as good as the offense is, the defense can’t be overlooked. The 49ers defensive unit allowed 30+ points in just two regular-season games in 2023, and the unit’s 31 total touchdowns allowed were the second-fewest in the league. The 49ers’ defense also finished eighth in yards allowed per game (303.9). Taking a deeper look it becomes clear that the 49ers were even better than their season-ending stats. Due to a span of three weeks (weeks 6-8), where San Francisco dropped three straight to the Browns, Vikings, and Bengals, their statistical finishes could be skewed slightly. After that losing streak, though, Brock Purdy and the 49ers bounced back, winning six straight games en route to their second straight division title and their third in the last five years, while also securing the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In their two playoff contests, the 49ers counted on comebacks to fight their way to the Super Bowl. First, they held off an impressive effort from the Green Bay Packers in a much closer-than-expected 24-21 win. Then in the NFC Championship against Detroit they came back from a 24-7 halftime deficit to beat the Lions 34-31. Both games were atypical for the 49ers. We have yet to see them put all the pieces together in the playoffs, but if they do, the Chiefs could be in for a long night.
3 Keys for a Kansas City Victory
Key No. 1: Slow down the 49ers run game
Although the Chiefs’ defense was able to emerge this season as a top unit, one place they were often vulnerable was against the run. This could encourage Kyle Shanahan to deploy more of a ground attack, especially with a 24-year-old Brock Purdy at the helm. Why wouldn’t they? The 49ers excel in the run game, not just because they have the best running back in the league in Christian McCaffrey, but also because Shanahan manages to find creative ways to get Deebo Samuel involved via jet-sweeps or reverses on the perimeter. They should combine for over 20 rushing attempts, forcing a ground-and-pound attack that the Chiefs may not be ready to defend. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have to find a way to counter this attack, possibly by blitzing relentlessly to fill all the gaps and stop the play before it gets started. This tactic could also put the type of pressure on Brock Purdy that he is unable to handle, resulting in negative plays or turnovers. If the Chiefs can handle the creativity of Shanahan’s play-calling, they will be able to control the line of scrimmage and plug the running lanes against this dynamic run game.
Key No. 2: Find a way to get Isaiah Pacheco going
There’s no reason to sugarcoat it. The Achilles heel of the San Francisco defense has been their inability to stop the run. They are a very weak unit up the middle, ranking in the bottom 10 against the run, and it is this very fact that nearly cost them their matchup against the Lions. The Chiefs’ run game may not have the pedigree of posing as much of a threat as the Lions, but Pacheco should be able to exploit their deficiency up the middle if given the chance. Isiah Pacheco is a wrecking ball of a running back who seeks out collisions, going up against a defensive unit that has had a problem stopping that type of runner. In the NFC Championship, Lions RB David Montgomery (a similar style runner) averaged over six yards per carry, finishing with 93 yards on the ground and a touchdown on 15 carries. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Pacheco needs to be the star of this game for the Chiefs to pull out a win. It would nearly be impossible to be the star on a field that includes Mahomes, Kelce, McCaffrey, and Samuel, but for them to come out victorious Pacheco will have to be involved. Pacheco averaged over three rushing yards after contact this season. If the 49ers can’t find a way to slow that down, we could, and should, see Pacheco’s number called a lot.
Key No. 3: Get Rashee Rice more involved
I know, I know. This passing game runs through Travis Kelce. But in recent weeks, including the playoffs, the Chiefs have begun to get their talented rookie more involved. Through three playoff games, Rice has 20 receptions for 223 yards and a touchdown, which includes an eight catch, 130 yards, and one score effort against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round. Compare this to Kelce’s 23 catches for 262 yards and three scores and you see the stat lines, other than the touchdowns, are pretty similar. This trend needs to continue if the Chiefs want to win this game. With Rice’s speed and route-running ability, he is very difficult to defend. It’s likely the defensive focus for the 49ers will be on stopping the run and slowing down the Kelce. This will present an opportunity for other players to step up and shoulder some of the load. Rice seems like the odds-on favorite to take on that role. Rice has already had a few breakout games so I can’t predict he’ll breakout in this one, but I do think he’ll have a big game, possibly pacing the Chiefs in receiving yards and if they win, Rice could be a big reason why.
Keys to a San Francisco Victory
Key No. 1: Stop the Mahomes/Kelce connection
Travis Kelce is coming off his best game since week 6 of the regular season. Against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Kelce accounted for 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. This can’t happen come Sunday if the 49ers want to have a chance of winning. The future Hall of Fame TE has looked like his old self during the playoffs, displaying the crafty route-running and catch radius we have come to expect from him, and that makes him a matchup nightmare for any defense. Slowing down the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce is no easy task, but to do so, Niners defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will have to play more man-to-man coverage and utilitize help over the top on Kelce. While this comes with the risk of being beaten up on the ground or Mahomes just picking you apart with his other weapons, it is a necessary risk to take. Kelce has proven time and time again that he is capable of single-handedly taking a game over, and the Chiefs are not the type of team you want to be forced to come from behind against. While rookie Rashee Rice has become more consistent as of late, other than Kelce the rest of the receiving room has been shaky all season, and forcing Mahomes to rely on them could be a winning recipe.
Key No. 2: Get the most out of Brock Purdy
It’s not often that the Kansas City Chiefs defense gets the credit for the team’s success, but in 2023 it was Steve Spagnuolo’s defense that carried the team more often than not. Never was it more apparent than in Kansas City’s 17-10 win over Baltimore in the AFC championship, in what was a master class of defensive play calling. Typically, when Lamar Jackson is the QB on the other side of the ball, scoring 17 points is not going to be enough to secure the victory, but with Spagnuolo’s defense making Jackson’s life miserable that’s exactly what they did, and it wasn’t the first time Spagnuolo has limited the damage of an elite QB, and although he has been solid and fits the system well, Purdy is not elite. But if the 49ers are going to win San Francisco has to find a way to keep Purdy upright and put him in a position to find offensive success. This 49ers defense just isn’t made to withstand three and out after three and out, or a turnover-riddled game by Purdy and the offense, especially not when Mahomes and the Chiefs are on the other team. The responsibility of making sure his offense succeeds will fall squarely on the creative shoulders of Kyle Shanahan. He will have to create a game plan that limits the Chiefs’ ability to force Purdy into mistakes while also opening up the run game, something Todd Monken and the Ravens were not able to do. But if Shanahan can put his offense in the position to play with a lead and consistently keep them in third and short situations, the 49ers can win this game. But it all starts with a fast-paced game plan, relying on the run game, and getting the ball out of Purdy’s hands quickly.
Key No. 3: Force the Chiefs to be One-Dimensional
As I mentioned earlier, the Chiefs will need to get Isaiah Pacheco involved to put themselves in the best position to win this game. The flip side of that is that the 49ers have to find a way to improve where they have often faltered in 2023. In their last two matchups, San Francisco allowed 318 yards on the ground with Aaron Jones and David Montgomery accounting for over 200 of that total. Pacheco isn’t the type of running back that instills fear in his opponents, but San Francisco would be wise not to take what Pacheco brings to the table for granted. Plus, Pacheco has looked very good in the playoffs, with over 65 yards and a touchdown in three straight games. On paper, Pacheco looks like he should be able to find holes in what has been a weak defensive line, but if the 49ers want to win this game they need to find a way to collapse those holes quickly. Forcing the Chiefs to do anything is always a tall order with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes running things, but if San Francisco can manage to minimize the damage on the ground and funnel the passing game to all non-Kelce options, they could end up with their first Super Bowl win since Super Bow XXIX in 1995.
Prediction
Picking a winner in this one is difficult because it should be a very evenly matched game and no matter which team you choose you have a decent chance of being wrong. It’s hard to overlook the advantage of it being easier for 49ers fans to get to Las Vegas than for fans of the Chiefs. Still, I don’t think that’s going to prevent dedicated Kansas City fans from getting to the game, mitigating any perceived “home-field” advantage. Both teams have talent all over the field. Both teams have great head coaches. The 49ers arguably have better skill position players. The combination of McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle are a bit more inspiring than Kelce, Rice, Pacheco, and…you see my point. The difference for me comes down to Mahomes vs. Purdy. After the regular season, very few people saw the Chiefs getting to this point, but they have proven once again that they are not a team to underestimate in the postseason. So I am not going to start doing it now. Until Reid, Mahomes, and Co. fail to prove their skeptics wrong, I’m going to continue to bet on them doing enough to pull through.
31-21 Chiefs
