Welcome to the quarterback edition of the 3 Year ADP Grade vs Final Fantasy Rank series!
Every season fantasy fanatics everywhere have cheat sheets they like to put together. Some prefer to buy them, some spend hours, days, and weeks pulling data and tweaking numbers until they get a system they are mostly happy with. This season, I decided to take my cheat sheet one step further and offer it up here at FantasyData for everyone to use. I have torn apart our historical ADP data along with our stats and season leaders tools to give a unique look at each position.
We are going to use a three-year sample size here and compare average draft positions (ADP) vs final ranks (FR) to see which players commonly under or overperform each season based on their perceived values. We’ll also look at points per game (PPG) totals and ranks to hopefully give you a completely zoomed out, unbiased look at past performances and how they relate to each player’s 2019 ADP. If you are into the value-based drafting (VBD) strategy or just prefer a more risk-averse approach on draft day, this is your dream sheet.
My goal with providing this information is also to eliminate too much forward-looking opinion and look purely at what has happened and then that gives you a jumping-off point to decide for yourself where things will go in 2019. Yearly consensus ADPs are a great indicator of popular opinion, but we will also look here at how often past ADPs have been accurate for each player. I will still give some notes on players that really stand out to me based on this info. I should also mention that since we are looking at three-year samples here, rookies and second-year players won’t be included. This is a lovechild of mine that I have spent countless hours on, I hope it helps you better prepare for fantasy drafts this season!
Quick Glossary of Primary Columns
- 2019 ADP vs 3Y ADP Diff: 2019 Average Draft Position vs Three-Year Average Draft Position Differential (column AE)
- 3Y ADP/FR Diff: Three-Year Average Draft Position vs Three-Year Average Final Rank Differential (column AF)
- 2019 ADP vs 3YAFR Diff: 2019 Average Draft Position vs Three-Year Average Final Rank Differential (column AG)
Other 3 Year ADP Grade vs. Rank Articles
2019 ADPs vs Three Year ADPs
Positive Value
First off, we are filtering column AE below here which shows 2019 ADPs vs 3Y ADPs to see which QBs have the highest positive value. This tells us which players are being drafted lower than their 3Y ADP and by exactly how much.
The best way to utilize this filter is by looking across at each player’s 3YA final rank and seeing if there is potential for them to be a QB1 or if they are just free-falling in value because they’re low-quality QB2s. The players you also want to focus mostly on are the ones who light up green across the board in all three of the last columns. These are the guys who are the most undervalued this season based on their 2019 ADP vs 3Y ADP, they have beaten out their ADP on average over the last three seasons based on their final ranks, and their 2019 ADP is lower than their 3YA final rank.
The top three in ADP value don’t give me much to get excited about. Carr, Manning, and Mariota have all been and should remain back-end QB2s. Carr has provided the most value of these three with his 15.1 3YA PPG and he’s the only one of those three who managed a QB1 (top 12) season over the last three years.
The middle of this bunch is where I get excited. It’s also where we find the guys who give us all green across the board. Stafford and Cousins are both being victims of recency bias as they’re coming off their worst single-season performance of the last three years. Both were consistent, mid-range QB1s before that though and each is a decent bounce-back candidate.
Ben Roethlisberger is an interesting case here as he has beaten out his ADP each of the last two years and is coming off a career-best QB3 finish last season. Yet his ADP in 2019 makes a four-year trend of a decline in perceived value heading into the season.
Negative Value
There are a few different categories of player situations to look at in the negative filters. Nick Foles hasn’t been drafted as a starter for the last three years because he hasn’t been one to open the season, so it makes sense for him to show up on top. Jared Goff, on the other hand, is a player who’s in the process of a positive trend so his numbers will be skewed based on the low expectations set for him a few years ago.
Like with the positive values, we want to focus more on guys here who light-up red across the board to really see who the risky picks are. Jimmy Garoppolo pops up as the first one. His 2019 ADP vs 3Y ADP makes sense to be negative since he too wasn’t drafted as a starter for a couple of years. Jimmy’s value is also sunk due to the fact that he was injured last season, making him a bust.
Deshaun Watson is a little bit of a surprise here with so much red on his board. His PPG totals are through the roof. He has the highest PPG average of all QBs in this research. His injury-shortened 2017 season is the primary contributor of all this negative value along with his lofty QB2 ADP last season.
Matt Ryan has been the most polarizing QB when it comes to ADPs vs final ranks. His consistent yo-yo effect of up one year, down the next will hopefully end this season. Based on the dramatic peaks and valley’s he has seen, there probably isn’t a safe enough amount of risk built into his 2019 ADP which is why he shows up red here.
Three Year ADPs vs Final Ranks
We are going to scoot over to the next column for filtering now which is my favorite for looking back and seeing who has been a value. In column AF we look at three-year average draft positions vs final ranks, which basically tells us who has under or overperformed in the past and by how much.
Positive Value
Seeing Keenum and Fitzpatrick at the top here isn’t too surprising. It’s not hard to beat out your ADP when you aren’t being drafted as a starting QB. Doing this exercise though did make me feel a little better about Keenum as a potential QB2 in two QB/superflex leagues. His PPG rank in 2017 was higher than the likes of Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, and even Matt Ryan to name a few.
Dak Prescott shows up as one of the ultimate sleepers of our time in this study. He is undervalued every season and beats out his ADP at the end of the year. He’s poised to do so again this season. His ADP has climbed ever so slightly over the last couple of months as he was all green when I first started this sheet.
Mitch Trubsiky is an interesting name here. He has beaten out his ADP each of the last two years and hasn’t really seen a hike in his ADP for 2019. There was a particular stretch last season between Weeks 4-12 where Trubisky was actually the overall QB1 in PPG as Jason Katz pointed out in this article over at FantasyPros.
Negative Value
The top of this list is a pretty star-studded affair. Is it possible that Aaron Rodgers is no longer in the elite tier for fantasy football? He hasn’t paid off the last two seasons as the consensus QB1 and his PPG rank hasn’t even registered in the top five in those seasons either. He is riskier than most like to admit early in fantasy drafts and another point towards the wait on QB draft method.
Tom Brady may be the GOAT in real life, but he has been a BUST the last three years in fantasy when it comes to ADP vs final ranks. Ok, maybe calling him a bust isn’t entirely fair, he was third and sixth in PPG ranks in 2016 and 2017 respectively, but there isn’t as much excitement about having him as your QB in fantasy anymore.
Whether it be due to suspensions or just poor all-around play, Jameis Winston hasn’t been a great value in fantasy either looking at his ADPs vs final ranks. Even if you use PPG as a best-case scenario for a potential final rank, his 2019 ADP is going to require a career year and offers little room for error.
2019 ADP vs Three Year Average Final Ranks
The last and most forward-looking part of this research is where we analyze 2019 ADPs vs three-year average final ranks. This tells us whose 2019 ADP is safe or not based on their past performances.
Positive Value
Again we find Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins sitting at the top of the positive value plays. These guys are being drafted 10-11 spots lower than their average final ranks this season and lower than their final ranks last season. I just don’t see a trend that dramatic continuing for either and they make for two of the best wait at QB targets in drafts this season. Dak Prescott again is another, though his value has slightly climbed recently.
Russell Wilson is the only one on this list who has managed to finish a season as the overall QB1 in the last three years. Many are down on him with the low volume passing attack the Seahawks have opted for recently. If Wilson falls to you anywhere passed QB8 he becomes a positive value pick.
Philip Rivers is easily the safest QB to draft this season. All three of the categories we looked at here he checks out pretty much on par with. He’s more of a low ceiling/high floor type but at least he won’t really cost you your season. He’s also looking for a new contract next season.
Negative Value
Here is our last bunch of negative value plays to check out. You’ll start to notice some trends here now with the same guys showing up. These players 2019 ADP is higher than their three-year average final rank by the exact value as shown in column AG here.
Carson Wentz is a new name who pops up that we haven’t really touched on yet. His average is sunk by injuries and a down year last season, but he has also shown us the ability to be one of the best QBs in fantasy as evidenced by his QB2 PPG rank back in 2017. So, if you get that 2017 version of Wentz back, you’re golden. But if the other guy shows up, you’re in trouble and the Eagles are in even more trouble without Foles there anymore to back him up. With so much value later in drafts and the PPG totals from Wentz really not being all that much better than guys you can get later, there is probably more risk evident than what is built into his ADP.
This concludes the QB edition! I hope you guys have some interesting takeaways from this research as I have. Take some time to look all the numbers over, there is a lot to soak in from all of this data and the more time you spend with it the more it talks to you. Good luck this season!
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