4 Reasons Why Lamar Miller Will Improve Your Fantasy Team

Lamar Miller Fantasy

What thoughts enter your mind when you hear the name of Lamar Miller? Does the word mediocre come to mind? How about terrible or overrated? Many feel the Houston Texans running back has burned them and their fantasy football team. Others have added Miller to their “Do Not Draft” list. These people are convinced that history will repeat itself when projecting his 2019 fantasy production. Are you one of them? Recency bias is very simple. We are disposed to use our recent experience as a baseline for what will happen in the future. This mindset can be detrimental to your fantasy football team. It’s important to look at certain players from multiple angles.    

“Lamar Miller sucks!” – #FantasyFootball Twitter

Reality…

Career Yards From Scrimmage:
Michael Turner 7866
Deuce McAllister 7816
Larry Johnson 7596
Dez Bryant 7456
Lamar Miller 7429 (still just 27)
Mike Alstott 7372

— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) February 17, 2019

This article will share with you four reasons you shouldn’t ignore Miller in fantasy football drafts this summer. 

1. Average Draft Position Matters

Miller is currently being selected in 12-team PPR formats as the RB30. Fantasy players are in a never-ending search for players with upside. They are mesmerized in there quest for players with the potential to outperform their average draft position (ADP). The irony is that many of these players ignore the obvious. We all know the familiar narratives. The second string RB who’s in a position to play a high number of offensive snaps if the starter suffers an injury. The highly touted rookie RB that is guaranteed to own the backfield by midseason. 

All of the other RBs being selected near Miller’s ADP have roadblocks that prevent them from seeing a high number of touches per game. Our very own Jody Smith provided a breakdown the San Francisco 49ers backfield back in May. This RB by committee is a quagmire for fantasy football players that includes Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Jerick McKinnon, and Raheem Mostert.

Never forget that Samaje Perine was the running back taken between James Conner and Tarik Cohen.

— Jackson Didlake (@diidlake) July 12, 2019

Chicago Bears RB Tarik Cohen will never be asked to carry the load because of his frame. The 179 pound back’s value is tied to his ability as a receiver. The Bears have a tougher schedule in 2019 and could find themselves a high number of games with a negative game script. This bodes well for Cohen but doesn’t change the fact that the team acquired two additional RBs in the offseason. Mike Davis was signed during free agency. The Bears also used their limited draft capital to select Iowa State RB David Montgomery in the third round of the NFL Draft. Derek Brown, a fantasy football writer at FantasyData, provides our readers insight into how Montgomery fits into the Bears backfield this season in a recent article. 

Sean McVay shares another update on Todd Gurley: ‘I know he’s ready to go’ https://t.co/9oky1k5lI4

— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) July 19, 2019

Many expect the Los Angeles Rams to reduce RB Todd Gurley’s number of touches per game because of arthritis in his knee. He held an opportunity share of 86 percent which was the second-highest in the NFL last season. The Rams drafted Memphis RB Darrell Henderson in the third round of the NFL Draft. Many expect Henderson to have a role in 2019. My expectation is that he’ll operate more as a change of pace instead of forcing an even split. Gurley will have to miss significant time with an injury for Henderson to become fantasy relevant. The offseason news around his knee and the drafting of Henderson have made him a massive value in fantasy football drafts this summer. 

Most rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line in 2018

1. Todd Gurley – 36
2. Alvin Kamara – 34
3. Saquon Barkley – 30
4. Christian McCaffrey – 29
5. Chris Carson – 28
6. Sony Michel – 27
T7. James Conner – 23
T7. Peyton Barber – 23

T9. D. Henry, M. Mack, K. Hunt, E. Elliott- 22

— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) July 18, 2019

Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson, not 2018 first-round draft pick Rashaad Penny, took control of the team’s backfield in training camp and never looked back. He averaged 17.6 rushing attempts and 82 rushing yards per game in 2018. Carson will likely open the season as the starter and see a similar workload. Will Penny’s workload increase as the season progresses? Hope isn’t always a viable strategy in fantasy football. 

Do you remember heading into the 2018 NFL Draft when Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice were touted as the top two running backs in the class? Rumors around Guice’s character affected his draft stock and the LSU RB fell to the back end of the second round. The stroke of bad luck continued as a  torn ACL in the preseason prematurely ended his rookie year. Guice has recently suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable for the start of training camp. He hasn’t practiced since tearing his ACL. All signs are pointing to Adrian Peterson leading the Redskins backfield again in 2019. 

All of RBs being drafted around Miller’s ADP have threats to their workload. The only threat to Miller’s workhorse role in Houston has is D’Onta Foreman. An RB who ruptured his Achilles during the 2017 season on a touchdown run against the Arizona Cardinals. Foreman spent most of 2018 rehabbing the injury. According to LER Magazine, only two-thirds of NFL players ever come back from a ruptured Achilles and those who do make it back on the field find their performance significantly affected. 

Miller is a great target for those executing a Zero RB strategy in fantasy drafts this summer. And now, you’re thinking that he has never put together a truly exceptional season. Miller’s range of outcomes has always been a high PPR point floor and low ceiling. He is projected to see a high number of opportunities per game this season with Texans. There are also some additional reasons to be excited about his breakout potential in 2019.

2. A Heavy Workload is a Valuable Commodity

Were you aware that Miller ranks ninth in rushing attempts per game since joining the Texans back in 2016? The RBs ahead of him are Chris Carson, Jordan Howard, Kareem Hunt, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott. Here is what things look like once you incorporate targets per game to better under Miller’s opportunities per game. 

Are you aware that fantasy points are the one thing that separates Miller from the other RBs on this list? He’s averaged a low 0.67 fantasy points per opportunity according to Player Profiler over the last three seasons. This metric measures running back fantasy points in the context of the player’s overall usage and playmaking prowess. It’s calculated the combined total of a running back’s carries and targets. Miller hasn’t capitalized on the volume he’s been given. The Texans have averaged nearly 25 rushing attempts per game since 2016, but only 0.4 rushing touchdowns. Miller’s average of 13 PPR fantasy points over that time frame is not going to help you win matchups. One reason for optimism is quarterback Deshaun Watson. Did you know in 21 games with him under center, Miller has averaged nearly 84 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game? Another reason to be optimistic is the improved Texans offensive line. 

3. Improved Offensive Line Play

The quality of offensive line play on a team’s offense is really important. It’s the foundation on which everything else is built. The Texans OL hasn’t blocked for a 1,000 yards rusher since Miller’s first season in Houston. The team’s offensive line play was very inconsistent during the 2016 season. The unit ranked 18th that season according to Pro Football Focus. The Texans OL line play hit rock bottom in 2017. The unit ranked 32nd according to PFF despite the RBs averaging 1.59 yards before contact (more than the NFL average) that season. The Texans OL saw minimal improvement according to PFF at the end of last season. The unit ranked 23rd.

The Texans OL also ranked low in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards over the last three seasons. 

This metric takes all the RB carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line. The Texans drafted Tytus Howard and Max Scharping in the first two rounds of the 2019 NFL Draft. The return of Seantrel Henderson will also help the OL this season. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien is well aware that the quality of OL play has to improve in 2019 in order to return to the playoffs for a second straight season. Here is what he had to say about the OL back in June according to transcripts from the team’s website:

They’ve improved in their knowledge, they’ve improved in their technique. It’s a very good group of guys, they work hard, they’re in early, they stay late, they do a lot of things together off the field. I think Nick Martin does a great job leading that group. I think he’s a great leader. I think they’ve improved. Again, when we go to full pads let’s see how that improvement takes shape with full pads on.

It is unclear how all of this will translate onto the football field. Improved OL play will raise Miller’s ceiling in 2019. The 28-year old RB could still set career highs in multiple statistical categories this season.

4. Physical Prime 

Did you know Miller is currently ranked seventh in touches with 1,563 among active players since entering the NFL as a 21-year old? He’s still in his physical prime, but the potential to have a monster season is dwindling with every snap. The top-12 RBs last season averaged 297 PPR fantasy points. Saquon Barkley was the RB1 with 381.2 fantasy points and Kareem Hunt was the RB12 with 229. There have been 218 RBs since the year 2000 who have had a peak season with 230 or more PPR fantasy points.    

A high percentage of those peak seasons have taken place when an RB is between the ages of 23 to 28. Here is a visual of the RBs since 2000 who have scored 230 or more PPR points during their age 28 season. 

Miller will have an opportunity to be added to list if he puts together a career season. 

Bringing It All Together

Imagine drafting Miller as your third or fourth RB on your roster at his current average draft position. Picture him finishing 2019 in the top-12 at his position. Conjure up an image of Miller seeing an increase in yards per carry, touchdowns per game, and fantasy points per opportunity. Imagine him becoming a difference-maker for your fantasy football team this season.

#Texans RB Lamar Miller does all the little things
*Processes defensive structure
*Uses his eyes to hold LBs
*Uses eyes and angles to set up blocks
*Nice burst
*Lowers pads on contact for extra yardage
Avg. 3.23 yds after contact (7th best), ahead of Gurley + Elliot. Gore 6th pic.twitter.com/7lEyzQhJ1P

— Cover 1 (@Cover_1_) July 14, 2019

The Texans have an improved OL. Watson is now two seasons removed from his ACL injury. The Texans didn’t add much in RB depth this offseason. MIller’s number of opportunities per game in 2019 should resemble his averages over the last three seasons. Everyone is convinced that Foreman will take over the Texans backfield. He’s had 93 touches in 11 career games. Miller is entering a contract and is looking to capitalize on his physical prime to put together one magical season that will result in a massive payday in 2020.

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• Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData and Player Profiler