Does the Zero RB Strategy Work in 2019?

By Eric Moody | June 3, 2019

Zero RB Strategy 2019

Have you ever heard of the Zero Running Back strategy? It was created by Rotoviz writer and 2013 NFFC Primetime Champion Shawn Siegele. He has used the strategy and others in hundreds of high stakes fantasy football leagues. The biggest misconception of the strategy is how it is executed in an actual fantasy draft. This article will provide insight into the origins of the Zero RB strategy, which players to target when executing it, and a mock draft showing you what your team could look like. 

Antifragile

Zero RB Strategy

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a scholar, statistician, former trader, and risk analyst whose work focuses on problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. He described the word Antifragile in his 2012 best seller as: 

Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure. Yet in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.

Let’s breakdown one of the most popular strategies used in fantasy football drafts. 

Value Based Drafting is Flawed

The theory of antifragility resonated with Siegele. It also resonated with me in multiple aspects of my life. You have to take risks in order to be successful whether it be personally, professionally, and even in fantasy football. It doesn’t feel comfortable operating outside of the herd. Siegele discusses value-based drafting and its flaws in his groundbreaking article:

One of the key issues in VBD focuses on creating replacement baselines. In his groundbreaking 2012 Rotoworld article, RotoViz creator Frank DuPont demonstrates how most analyses generate inaccurate and misleading baselines. The essential issue in fantasy football deals with running backs and their relative scarcity. FD demonstrates how the injury problem with running backs pushes their baseline even lower than traditionally understood and demonstrates the necessity for having even more redundancy at the position than you might otherwise think.

Taleb divides things into three groups: fragile, resilient/robust, and antifragile. The Value-Based Drafting fantasy diehards fall into the fragile group according to Siegele. He considers these rosters fragile for two reasons: 

  1. They are overwhelmingly fragile in the face of prediction errors
  2. They are overwhelmingly fragile in the face of injuries.

While the Resilient/Robust are those fantasy players drafting running backs early and often. The central idea behind these types of lineups, according to Siegele, is that not all of your predictions will come true and some players will sustain an injury. The Antifragile group are those implementing a Zero RB strategy. 

Implementation

You can implement a Zero RB strategy by not drafting a running back in the high leverage rounds according to Siegele. He would consider drafting one upside running back in the fourth or fifth round depending on the flow of the fantasy draft. Your preferred lineup after five rounds should be to roster four wide receivers and one tight end. You should now focus on drafting potential breakout players, the receiving back in committees, and backups in good offenses. 

The randomness throughout an NFL season benefits your team. If a starting running back gets hurt your lineup improves because you already roster the backup or have an opportunity to acquire the backup on the waiver wire. I echo the following excerpt from Siegele’s article:

A quick note about ethics: It’s easy to see the above paragraph as parasitic, but I don’t believe it is. I’m not causing anyone to get injured, and in fact I’m expressly not rooting for it. I own Kendall Hunter in a lot of leagues and believe he would immediately be a Top 10 back if Frank Gore were injured. I am not rooting for this. I’m a big believer in karma. (I believe it’s a good concept whether or not it’s a true concept.) I tend to think of this in the following terms: if I root for someone to get injured, it’s more likely one of my foundational players will be injured instead. These are real people with real careers that are far more important than my fantasy results. I’m rooting for Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch to get stuffed at the goal line each week, but I am not rooting for them to get hurt.

Running backs have a very high injury probability according to websites such as Inside Injuries and Sports Injury Predictor. This is the knowledge you should leverage when executing any draft strategy. Let me share with you what your Zero RB team could look like this summer.  

Zero RB Mock Draft

The most predictable wide receiver and tight end stats from one season to the next are targets and air yards per game. Rushing attempts, rushing yards, and targets per game are the most predictable for running backs. I will be drafting from the 1.05 in this 12-team PPR mock. The starting lineup will consist of a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, DST, and K. 

1.05 DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins has averaged 10.8 targets, 6.3 receptions, 85.9 receiving yards, and 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game over the last three seasons. He has also led the Texans in air yards over that time frame. Hopkins has quarterback Deshaun Watson under center who has exceeded expectations up to this point in his career. FantasyData has Hopkins projected to finish this season as the WR2 in PPR formats.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider: Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones

2.08 Antonio Brown

Brown’s average draft position or ADP hasn’t been this low since 2013. He’s averaged 11.1 targets, 7.5 receptions, 99 receiving yards, and 22 PPR fantasy points per game over his last 92 games. He’s led the Steelers in air yards over that time frame. Brown and Raiders quarterback Derek Carr are both criminally underrated heading into fantasy drafts this summer. FantasyData has Brown projected to finish this season as the WR7 in PPR formats.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider: Mike Evans, Keenan Allen

3.05 George Kittle

Kittle broke last season in San Francisco in spite of the quarterback situation. He averaged 8.4 targets, 5.5 receptions, 86.1 receiving yards, and 16 PPR fantasy points per game. Kittle led the 49ers in air yards. A healthy Jimmy Garoppolo bodes well for his 2019 outlook. FantasyData has Kittle projected to finish this season as the TE3 in PPR formats. He may or may not be available in the third round of fantasy drafts. If Kittle is unavailable I’d another wide receiver in this round such as Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs and wait on the tight end position. If you find yourself waiting on tight end I recommend targeting Evan Engram or O.J Howard in the fifth round. 

4.08 Brandin Cooks

Were you aware that this is the first time in three seasons that Cooks doesn’t have to learn a new offensive scheme? He finished as a WR2 or better in 53 percent of his games last season averaging 7.7 targets, 5.3 receptions, 80.3 receiving yards, and 16.2 PPR fantasy points per game. Cooks biggest target share was in Super Bowl LIII. This will continue during the upcoming season. FantasyData has Cooks projected to finish this season as the WR13 in PPR formats.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Julian Edelman

5.05 Chris Godwin

Godwin finished last season with positive receiving fantasy points over expectation. He averaged 5.9 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 52.6 receiving yards per game last season. The departure of DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries opens the door for Godwin to see a higher number of targets per game in new head coach Bruce Arians’ vertical passing game. FantasyData has Godwin projected to finish this season as the WR20 in PPR formats. I believe he has the potential to finish higher in 2019. 

Other Wide Receivers to Consider: Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley, Jarvis Landry

6.08 Mark Ingram

Since the 2014 season, Ingram has averaged 17 touches, 87 total yards, and 15.5 PPR fantasy points per game over the last 69 games with positive rushing and receiving fantasy points over expectation. He missed four games last season in New Orleans due to a suspension. Ingram is in a position to have the highest number of opportunities per game in his entire in Baltimore this season. Ravens Greg Roman has five full seasons on his resume as an offensive coordinator. His teams have never finished lower than 8th in rushing. FantasyData has Ingram projected to finish this season as the RB27 in PPR formats. I believe he can exceed that projection. 

Other Running Backs to Consider: Phillip Lindsay, Kenyan Drake

7.05 Tarik Cohen

Cohen averaged 12 opportunities, 73 total yards, and 15 PPR fantasy points per game last season. The Bears have a challenging schedule in 2019. Did you know that they will face six teams that reached the playoffs in 2018? Cohen will have negative game flow in his favor which should lead to him seeing a high number of opportunities per game. 

Other Running Backs to Consider: Derrius Guice, James White, Tevin Coleman

8.08 Lamar Miller

Miller only averaged 12.5 PPR fantasy points per game during 2018, but did average 17.6 opportunities per game. It is rare to find a running back at this stage of any fantasy draft being given this number of opportunities. Miller’s biggest competition is D’Onta Foreman who is returning from an Achilles injury. The Texans offensive line struggled last season. It has been overhauled heading into this season which bodes well for Miller’s fantasy prospects. 

Other Running Back to Consider: Latavius Murray

9.05 Rashaad Penny

The Seahawks ranked second in rushing attempts per game with 33 and first in rushing yards per game with 155 last season. Penny was selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. The stellar play of undrafted free agent Chris Carson limited Penny’s upside. He will continue to see touches this season and has the potential to be a league winner if Carson misses an extended amount of time. 

Other Running Back to Consider: Kareem Hunt

10.08 Ronald Jones

Jones had a rookie season that was forgettable. It is not uncommon for first-year players to progress in their second season after their first offseason as an NFL player. All reports suggest this is happening with Jones. Buccaneers running back Peyton Barber signed a one-year contract and does not have a stranglehold on the starting running back position. This a battle to monitor during training camp and the preseason. 

11.05 Michael Gallup

Gallup was targeted nine times in the Cowboys’ playoff game against the Rams. He finished with six receptions for 119 receiving yards. The Cowboys will throw the football more this season than many anticipate. Quarterback Dak Prescott is currently negotiating a new contract and he was more productive as a passer once the team acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper. Gallup can be viewed as a high end WR3 with WR2 upside. 

12.08 Robert Foster

Foster played well at the end of the 2018 season with at least 12 PPR fantasy points in three of his final four games. He ranked 23rd out of 107 qualifying wideouts in yards per route run last season. Foster also developed a great rapport with Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He should continue to see a high number of air yards per game along with new addition John Brown. 

13.05 Ito Smith

Smith and the other Falcons running back did not take advantage of the Devonta Freeman injury. The entire offense struggled in Steve Sarkisian’s last season in Atlanta as the offensive coordinator. Smith was productive enough as a rookie to solidify his role as the Falcons No. 2 running back. He has very good play speed, agility, and was very productive at the University of Southern Mississippi. The Falcons did not draft a running back until the sixth rounds and have made additions to strengthen their offensive line. Smith will have a role in the team’s offense and has the potential with Dirk Koetter back as the offensive coordinator to be a league winner if starter Devonta Freeman were ever to miss time. 

14.08 Dak Prescott

Prescott is one of only three quarterbacks to finish as in the top-10 at the position in each of the last three seasons. He has averaged 31 passing attempts, 226 passing yards, 20 rushing yards, and 20 fantasy points per game. Were you aware that only Panthers Cam Newton has more rushing touchdowns (28) than Prescott (18) during their first three seasons of a quarterbacks career in NFL history? The Cowboys addition of Cooper solidifies Prescott’s outlook as a high-end QB1. 

Final Roster
  • QB: Dak Prescott
  • RBs: Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen, Lamar Miller, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, Ito Smith
  • WRs: DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Chris Godwin, Michael Gallup, Robert Foster
  • TE: George Kittle
  • DST: Browns
  • K: Jake Elliott 

Conclusion

You are able to accumulate talent at wide receiver when you select four in the first five rounds of a draft. Hopkins and Brown should stockpile 100 or more receptions and lead their teams in targets. Cooks and Godwin are also expected to see significant opportunities this season. The running backs I selected do carry risks, but all are expected to contribute as part of a committee. Ingram and Miller could average 15 or more opportunities per game. Cohen, Jones, and Smith continue to be undervalued in fantasy drafts. 

I have implemented the Zero RB strategy in industry and high stakes leagues with great success. I’ve even written a series at Rotoviz chronicling one of my FFPC teams from the draft all the way to winning the championship. I mention this not to boast or brag, but for you to know that I’m very familiar with executing Siegele’s strategy.


It is uncomfortable executing in a live fantasy draft. You see all of these elite running backs be taken off of the board, but implementing the strategy will cause panic and confusion in many of your league mates. This is the type of chaos this type of draft strategy thrives in.   

Eric Moody
Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). His writing has been featured at FantasyPros, Gridiron Experts, RotoViz, and TwoQBs. He has a lifelong passion for the game and even played at the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level. When Eric provides advice, he uses game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. He enjoys time with his family, Netflix, music, bass guitar, and coffee
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