Bold NFL Predictions for Week 7
It was mostly an off-week for my Week 6 bold predictions. Logan Thomas did not finish as a top 3 tight end. In fact, he might have been a bottom 3 tight end after finishing with one catch for two yards. I was also wrong about Ja’Marr Chase having a big day. He had a meager six catches for 80 yards. I was close with my Dak Prescott prediction. I predicted he would throw for his first 300 yard game of the year, but he fell 28 yards shy of the mark. And my process was right with Alexander Mattison. He was two carries short of the 20 I predicted, but he only managed 44 yards on those attempts, well below the 100 yards I believed he would get. Lastly, I was correct about the NY Jets upsetting the undefeated Eagles, whose luck finally ran out.
This week, I have five more bold predictions that I believe have at least a 35% chance of happening. If they have a higher chance of happening, I don’t believe they would fit the description of a bold prediction. These are all in the range of outcomes, albeit on the low end. They can be useful for fantasy football purposes if you’re looking for a player with upside or a player to leave on the bench, depending on the prediction.
No Touchdowns for You
This week, the Indianapolis Colts host the Cleveland Browns. The Colts have played well and have exceeded expectations, but they will be without Anthony Richardson. Gardner Minshew takes over as the Colts starting quarterback and is capable enough to keep them competitive most weeks. However, the offense is not as explosive with Minshew at the helm. Last week, he threw three interceptions in a loss to Jacksonville and the offense finished 29th in DVOA. This week, they face the top defense in the league. The Colts’ strength has been running the ball, but part of the reason they have been so successful at it is because of Richardson. With Minshew taking over, defenses won’t have to focus on the quarterback taking off downfield on a designed run. The Colts managed only 44 rushing yards against the Jaguars and I don’t see that improving against Cleveland. The Browns are only allowing 79 rushing yards per game and a league-low 3.6 rushing first downs per game. It’s hard to sustain drives against Cleveland. Opposing teams are only getting off 52.4 plays per game against them, 11 fewer than the league average. The Browns defense is legit and I don’t think Minshew will be able to have much success against it. I don’t think the Colts will score an offensive touchdown in this game. Does that mean I would sit Zach Moss or Jonathan Taylor in my fantasy leagues? Probably so, if I had a decent alternative on my bench.
Luke Musgrave-digger Buries Broncos
Every opposing team’s offense’s eyes light up when they see they’re playing the Denver Broncos. The Packers got the lucky draw this week and get to face the worst defense in the league. The news is even better for Luke Musgrave as the Broncos give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Musgrave has had a pretty pedestrian rookie season so far, but he is getting about 15% of the team’s targets and he’s second among tight ends in deep ball targets. I have the Green Bay offense projected for 357 yards, 76 more than their average, and I think Musgrave could get a nice chunk of that extra yardage. I feel a blow-up game coming for the rookie and it’s entirely within the range of outcomes for him to finish as a top three TE this week.
The Kupp Runneth Over
Since returning to the Rams lineup, Cooper Kupp has returned to form, catching 15 passes for 266 yards and a touchdown in two games. Both of those games were plus matchups for Kupp, but none as plum as their Week 7 game against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. They’re also allowing opposing teams to run a league-high 70 plays per game. I think Kupp will see at least 15 targets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him catch two touchdowns, as well. Kupp should dominate this week and finish as the overall WR-1.
Dolphins Flounder Against Eagles
No offense has been more prolific in the NFL this year than the Dolphins. They’re number one in passing and rushing yards and have looked pretty much unstoppable. I don’t want to take anything away from the greatness of their achievements thus far, but I will point out their soft schedule up to this point. They have had wins against the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers, arguably the four worst teams in the league. They won a close game against the Chargers and lost to the Bills. One could argue they haven’t been tested much and when they were tested against the Bills, they lost convincingly. This week, they play another one of the top teams in the league. Philadelphia is coming off their first loss of the season, but it wasn’t due to their defense. Turnovers, and a strong Jets defense, contributed to the loss. The Eagles run defense has been outstanding, allowing only 65 rushing yards per game, second best in the league. The Dolphins offensive line is expected to be without two of their best players, Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, so they will be weakened against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. I don’t think Miami will be able to get their ground game going this week. They can win the game through the air with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to throw to, but it will be a tougher task. The Dolphins are averaging 181 rushing yards per game, by far the best mark in the league, but I think Philadelphia will be able to hold them under 100 rushing yards.
Mahomes Unplugged Against Chargers
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet, without question. However, he has only thrown for 300+ yards twice this season and both times were just barely over that mark. The Chiefs are running slightly more than last season, which is part of the reason why Mahomes’ yardage is down, but they also lack a clear WR1 to throw to. He’s currently sixth in passing yards after finishing first last season with over 5,000 yards for the second time in his career. I think Mahomes has some big games ahead of him this year and I think it will start this week against the Chargers, who have the league’s worst pass defense. I think this game is a perfect opportunity for the Chiefs to remind their AFC foes that Mahomes is still the alpha dog in the conference. At the end of the day, I think he will have his first 400 yard passing game of the season.
