DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 7
The NFL Week 7 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With only six weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results on DraftKings:
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 339/6896
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 788/16303
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 388/9195
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 109/2298
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 211/4597
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up – 143/2873
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up – 289/5747
- NFL $3 Double Up – 13/229
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 278/5747
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 100%
Winning percentage in Head-to-Head – 100%
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 6:
There were a lot of viable paths to cash game success in Week 6, and most of what your lineup looked like was determined by what you did at quarterback. I seriously considered Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford before lock, and both were heavily rostered in all contests. But in the end, I felt comfortable with how much volume I thought Minshew would get, and it turns out he got plenty of it. He committed four turnovers and only threw for one touchdown, but the 300-yard bonus thanks to garbage time was what unlocked a decent score.
By biggest pivot away from the mega chalk lineups that featured Christian Kirk, Josh Downs, and Marquise Brown was to get up to both Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill. Minshew allowed for that and it pushed me near the top of all cash games. I had Logan Thomas in my lineup almost all week but then looked at the volume lately for Pitts combined with how teams are gashing Washington through the air one more time. It led to a lucky move to roster Pitts.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 7.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8,300, FD: $9,200) gets back to work once again with the highest implied team total on the slate. At just under 27 points, Patrick Mahomes should lead a funneled offense that centers around Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheo. The Chargers allow the most passing yards per game (289) and are 25th passing touchdowns allowed per game. Mahomes hasn’t exactly paid off his high salary lately, but if there is a game to get back on track, it’s this one.
Geno Smith (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,000) is another guy who hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations this year, averaging just 12.5 fantasy points at home this year after a breakout performance in 2022. But the Seahawks and their talented offensive core are projected to score over 26 points in this game and the Cardinals allow 10.4 yards per pass attempt. Tyler Lockett is banged up so that might affect Smith’s outlook, but he still has plenty of weapons to help pay off this low salary.
Sam Howell (DK: $5,500, FD: $7,400) is on a tear right now, scoring at least 18 fantasy points in four of his last five games including six touchdowns in his last three contests. He is traveling to the Giants in this Week 7 matchup, but the G-Men are 27th in opponent yards per pass attempt and 24th in opponent first downs allowed per game. For $5,500 I think Howell can easily get to 250 yards and two scores in this game and pay that off.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker (DK: $7,000, FD: $8,800) is going to check in as a top-three projected running back on a lot of sites this week. He comes in third in the FantasyData projections with over 15.5 fantasy points but he is priced as RB7 on DraftKings. Walker saw a season-high 76% of snaps last week, putting to rest any concerns that Zach Charbonnet would eat into a healthy chunk of his workload.
Josh Jacobs (DK: $7,400, FD: $8,000) has been far from efficient this year, but is finally making up for that lack of efficiency with volume. He has at least 17 rush attempts and five targets in each of his last four games where he also hasn’t had less than 80 total yards in any of them. With the Raiders down to their second or third quarterback this week, don’t be surprised if the offense rolls through Jacobs in Week 7 (despite Davante Adams’ squeaky wheel comments).
Isiah Pacheco (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,400) has seen quite the increase in playing time and touch opportunity this year. Last week, he played a season-high 63% of snaps and recorded 98 total yards on 22 touches. Pacheco and Mahomes together in a lineup doesn’t seem like a great pairing, but you can certainly choose one and hope the game flow favors who you pick. The Chargers allow 4.0 yards per carry as well as the sixth-most running back receptions this season. i
Zach Evans (DK: $4,000, FD: $4,800) is a very risky play even at the running back minimum on DraftKings of $4,000. We have no idea if the Rams will choose to feature Evans, Royce Freeman, or recently-signed Myles Gaskin. but at least he gets a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 27th in opponent yards per rush attempt allowed.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp (DK: $9,500, $FD: $9,700) is the spend-up option of the week with no Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill to consider for our rosters. Since he returned from his hamstring injury, he has been nothing short of spectacular. In those two weeks, Kupp averages 10 targets, 133 yards, and 17.7 yards per reception. In the last two weeks, Kupp is second among all wide receivers in target share and sixth in air yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK: $8,000, FD: $8,200) set career highs with 15 targets and 12 receptions last week against the Buccaneers. You can count me in the camp of people who think that with David Montgomery hurt, the Lions will rely more on the passing game and not players like Craig Reynolds or Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions already rank fourth in passing yards per game and St. Brown owns 26% of the target share in that offense. I think that number will be higher on Sunday against a Baltimore squad that is tough against the run (top-ten in rushing yards allowed per game).
Marquise Brown (DK: $5,300, FD: $6,700) came down with another double-digit target day on Sunday and is now the only player in the NFL with at least 10 targets in four of the last five weeks. Ignore the lackluster production in that game and focus on the fact that he is top-ten at the position in target share over the last three weeks and the Cardinals are big underdogs on Sunday. With no James Conner, I think we continue to see a lot of Hollywood.
Kendrick Bourne (DK: $4,400, FD: $5,800) may not score a single touchdown in 2023 considering the horrific state of the Patriots’ offense, but he is getting all the targets and yards in this passing game and his salary does not reflect it. Bourne balled out with 10 catches on 11 targets for 89 yards against the Raiders last week and now gets the Bills who gave up eight catches and 62 yards to Wan’Dale Robinson last week, a very similar player to Bourne.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (DK: $8,000, FD: $8,500) is finally back on the main slate after taking time off to date some aspiring musician, do Saturday Night Live, start a podcast, etc. Actually the Chiefs have had some primetime games lately so it’s good to see the number one tight end back on the main slate. There is not going to be anyone within five points of Kelce for projections on most sites this week, he stands out that much in this matchup. The Chargers allow 7.7 yards per pass attempt on the season, which is the second-highest number in the NFL.
Michael Mayer (DK: $2,700, FD: $4,900) broke out last week with five receptions for 75 yards and his snap rate jumped to a career-high 81%. The Bears have allowed the second-most catches and the seventh-most yards to tight ends this season, so Mayer looks to be a great value play even with Brian Hoyer under center for Las Vegas.
Trey McBride (DK: $2,600, FD: $4,600) played over Zach Ertz for the first time last week and he might be ascending to the favorite tight end target in Arizona. Both tight ends have five balls thrown their way in Week 6, but it was McBride with 62 yards to Ertz’s 22. If he keeps getting almost 60% of the snaps in Arizona, this salary will be a steal.
Defense/Special Teams
Washington DST (DK: $3,500, FD: $4,600) gets the matchup of the week for DST lining up against a mildly-injured and turnover-prone Daniel Jones and the Giants. The Giants allow the highest sack percentage in the league at 14% while Washington is 11th in the NFL with an 8.4% sack rate from their defense. They are slightly more expensive than I like to pay, but you can’t deny the upside.
Kansas City DST (DK: $2,400, FD: $4,400) has been a dominant defensive team this year, and the only reason they are priced this low is the perception that the Chargers are some offensive juggernaut. However, we saw on Monday night that Justin Herbert is prone to mistakes. His interception and sack late in the game cost his team the win. With the Chargers underdogs in this game, that should mean more drop-backs for LA, which is correlated to more opportunities for interceptions and sacks.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. These are both fairly straightforward builds that both allow for Cooper Kupp assuming you pay down at DST and tight end. I am really a fan of Travis Kelce as well this week, but it’s probably not feasible to get both into lineups.