Advanced Fantasy Metrics
This article will tell you about seven must-read advanced stats you should know about as we approach Sunday’s Week 7 slate of NFL action. The advanced metrics that FantasyData provides our subscribers are not the end all be all. They are very useful at helping you better understand matchups and make the best possible lineup decision.
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Kyler Murray’s Deep Ball Passing Attempts (32) and Completion Percentage (53.1%)
Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns in the Cardinals win over the Falcons in Week 6 while rushing for 32 yards. The rookie quarterback adds nuances to his game every week. One that has been exciting to watch is Murray’s downfield pass attempts. He’s currently the QB7 and averaging 39.7 pass attempts, 277.3 passing yards, 299.2 air yards, 1.2 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game.
Kyler’s really been dropping dimes all season 😤😤 @K1 @AZCardinals @OU_Football pic.twitter.com/xbvNBK2Xvy
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 16, 2019
Murray has a plus matchup against the Giants secondary this week. New York’s defense is allowing an average of 20.61 fantasy points to quarterbacks per game this season. Our projections have Murray finishing as the QB5 this week with 19.9 fantasy points. There is a great chance that he exceeds that projection.
Matt Ryan True Passer Rating (113.9)
Ryan completed 30 of 36 passes for 356 yards and four touchdowns in the Falcons loss to the Cardinals. He’s averaged 43 pass attempts, 335.2 passing yards, 367.3 air yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 1.2 interceptions per game. Ryan’s currently the QB5 and has been benefited from the Falcons trailing in a high percentage of their games so far this season. Atlanta’s receivers have been averaging 2.06 yards of separation per target according to our advanced metrics. Ryan’s true passer rating ranks fourth among quarterbacks. This metric factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes.
Fewest games to 40,000 passing yards, NFL history
1. Matt Ryan – 151*
2. Drew Brees – 152
3. Dan Marino – 153
4. Peyton Manning – 154
4. Aaron Rodgers – 154
6. Philip Rivers – 160
6. Carson Palmer – 160
8. Tom Brady – 162*Matthew Stafford (39,919) should get there in Game 147.
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) October 17, 2019
Ryan will be a QB1 against the Rams at home in Week 7. We have him projected to finish as the QB6. There is a very good chance that Ryan exceeds that projection considering the game against the Falcons and Rams has the highest Vegas point total of Week 7.
Alexander Mattison’s Breakaway Run Rate (12.5)
This is another gentle reminder to acquire Mattison if he’s still available in your fantasy league or trade for him. He rushed 14 times for 63 yards in the Vikings win over the Eagles in Week 6. Mattison leads all running backs in his percentage of breakaway runs. He’s averaging 4.3 fantasy points per game more than expected this season while averaging 8.2 opportunities per game.
Nice run by #Vikings rookie Alexander Mattison.pic.twitter.com/2to4vcbsGQ
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 13, 2019
Mattison can be viewed as a weekly RB3 in deeper formats.
David Johnson’s Fantasy Points Per Opportunity (1.04)
Johnson was dealing with a back injury leading up to the Cardinals Week 6 matchup against the Falcons. He rushed 12 times for 34 yards and one touchdown. Johnson was also very active as a receiver finishing with six receptions and a receiving touchdown. He’s currently the RB5 in PPR formats averaging 20.2 points per game. Johnson has negative rushing fantasy points over expectation, but positive receiving fantasy points over expectation. He can thrive in the Cardinals offense considering the passing volume. Johnson’s fantasy points per opportunity rank third behind Austin Ekeler (1.24) and Christian McCaffrey (1.05) who have averaged a similar number of opportunities per game.
Since 2015, only Alvin Kamara (6) and Christian McCaffrey (6) have more games with both a rushing and receiving TD than David Johnson (5). pic.twitter.com/XmxriZptjA
— Arizona Cardinals ⋈ (@AZCardinals) October 16, 2019
Johnson is an intriguing buy-low candidate right now. His floor and ceiling continue to rise along with the play of Murray. Johnson can be viewed as a high-end RB1 against the Giants. New York’s defense is allowing an average of 26.63 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs this season. We have Johnson projected to finish this week as the RB3 in PPR formats.
Tyler Lockett’s Target Separation (2.26)
Lockett caught five of five targets for 75 receiving yards in the Seahawks win over the Browns in Week 6. The WR11 in PPR formats is in the midst of a breakout season. He’s averaging 6.8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 75.7 receiving yards, 76.8 air yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game this season. Lockett is averaging 16.3 PPR fantasy points per game and has a true catch rate of 87.5 percent. This metric divides total receptions by total catchable targets. Lockett currently leads all receivers with 40 or more targets with an average of 2.26 yards of separation per target.
Russell Wilson on Tyler Lockett:
“I think he’s one of the best receivers in the National Football League. I’d fight anybody on that.”
— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) October 10, 2019
The season-ending injury to tight end Will Dissly is likely to create additional targets for Lockett. He can be viewed as a WR1 in Week 7 against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense an average of 36.45 PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season.
A.J. Brown’s Yards Per Pass Route Run
Brown’s week to week production has been erratic. The rookie’s only averaging 3.8 targets per game this season in a Titans offense that ranks 27th with an average of 290 yards per game. The good news is that Brown has averaged 2.6 fantasy points per game more than expected. There may be light at the end of the tunnel with Ryan Tannehill now under center replacing Marcus Mariota. Brown ranks ninth in yards per pass route among receivers with 20 or more targets.
A.J. Brown after the catch >>> pic.twitter.com/DXrujTTCM4
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 15, 2019
The Titans offense looked serviceable with Tannehill under center. Brown is someone to acquire or trade for prior to Sunday’s slate of games. He has the potential to be a difference-maker for fantasy players during the second half of the season.
Will Fuller’s Number of Drops (5)
Fuller was also close to another historic game against the Chiefs. He caught five of nine targets for 44 yards. Fuller’s three drops could have led to three long touchdowns. He is known for having a low floor and a high ceiling. Fuller’s five drops are concerning, but he has a reasonable matchup against the Colts this week which should be high scoring.
Rough day for Houston Texans WR Will Fuller #HOUvsKC pic.twitter.com/JfUNmXeLl6
— Kevin Boilard (@247KevinBoilard) October 13, 2019
Fuller currently has a 10.4 percent drop rate which is the highest among wide receivers with 40 or more targets this season. The only other wide receivers with five or more drops this season is Odell Beckham and John Ross. The best way to view Fuller on a weekly basis is as a high-end WR3.
Conclusion
FantasyData has a wealth of statistical information available to you at your fingertips. Do you ever wonder how to weave all of the information together in order to make informed decisions for your fantasy football team? That’s the purpose behind the Advanced Metrics series that Jody Smith and I are writing this season. One way to approach any decision in fantasy football is to analyze two things. The first one revolves around the narrative. What are NFL Insiders, beat writers, and coaches saying. The second one revolves around the statistics, metrics, and other data. Take a moment to think of a piano. You can play music with one hand, but once you use both hands the music is even better. You should have the same mindset when it comes to managing your fantasy football team.
Please read my Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em column to help get ready for Week 7. If you have additional questions you can also refer to my fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
