As draft season draws near, it’s a good time to look at the potential of second-year wide receivers who could emerge as breakout stars. I’m looking at players who exhibited glimpses of brilliance in their rookie seasons, positioning themselves as promising candidates for WR1 or WR2 status. I’ve singled out seven such receivers who possess the skills and work ethic to make a significant impact this year. Among them are Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, whose rookie seasons have set the table for huge fantasy football success. Now, with the added advantage of upgraded quarterbacks, their potential is even more enticing.
Aside from those two, who appear to be locks to finish as a top 24 receiver, at least, I looked at five other receivers I feel have the best chance to break out this year. I used a variety of advanced stats from their rookie seasons, as well as their offensive systems, to identify who among those have the best odds of achieving WR1 and WR2 status.
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The table below shows my second-year breakout candidates at wide receiver and some advanced stats that can help predict breakout potential. The numbers highlighted in green show the player finished among the top 12 in those categories. Yellow indicates they finished among the top 24. The last two columns indicate the player’s potential to finish as a WR1 or WR2. Green means there’s a very good chance, and yellow means there’s a better than 50% chance.
- 2022 Finish Among WR in PPR
- 2023 FFC Draft Ranking
- PFF Grade
- Yards Per Route Run
- Target Share
- Targets Per Routes Run
- Average Target Distance
- Offensive System (4-point scale, 4 is the highest)
Ready to Breakout
Drake London, Falcons
Drake London had an impressive performance last season, finishing as the WR31 in PPR scoring. As he enters his second year, he’s now ranked as the WR32 in our FFC Draft Rankings. Among all rookies, London led the pack and ranked fifth in the league for target share. It’s worth noting that Kyle Pitts missing seven games contributed to some of this success. During that time, London’s target share increased to 35%, and even with Pitts in the lineup, he still managed to get 30% of the targets. However, with the addition of Bijan Robinson, who is expected to receive a significant number of targets from the backfield, it’s unlikely that London will maintain such a high target share this season.
Regarding talent, London stands out among the second-year receivers I’ve analyzed, boasting the highest PFF grade. He unquestionably has the ability to become one of the top wide receivers in the game. Yet, his biggest obstacle lies in the Falcons’ offense, which ranked 31st in passing yards and attempts last year. The team’s decision to draft a running back in the first round suggests that the passing game might not see a significant improvement. Considering London’s 22nd position in total targets last year, it’s realistic to expect that he won’t receive enough volume to be considered a WR1.
The main factor that could hinder London from becoming a solid WR2 this season is the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback situation. It remains unclear how much of an upgrade Desmond Ridder will be over Marcus Mariota. However, if Ridder can improve on Mariota’s deep ball completion percentage, which ranked 33rd in the league, it would bode well for London. An improved deep ball accuracy would positively impact London’s aDOT (average depth of target), potentially elevating his ceiling significantly. London is a steal in the fifth round of fantasy drafts.
Chris Olave, Saints
Chris Olave’s breakout potential in 2023 is very high. He finished as WR-25 last season, technically considered a WR3. However, this season, we project him to reach WR-14. According to my model, he has the highest potential to become a WR1. Although his PFF grade falls slightly below the mark for a WR1, he compensates for it by being the only player in the group to have WR1-level rankings in every statistical category I tracked.
Olave finished 4th in deep targets and 3rd in air yards share last season. He also ranked in the top 10 in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) and Average Depth of Target (aDOT). His ability to stretch the field makes him an attractive target for the new Saints quarterback, Derek Carr. Last year, Carr targeted Davante Adams 32.6% of the time, the most in the NFL. I believe he will similarly target Olave in a comparable manner, possibly increasing his 26.7% target share.
Olave is being drafted a full round behind Garrett Wilson in fantasy drafts, making him a tremendous value. This also gives you the option of starting your draft with a combination of RB/TE in the first two rounds and still getting a potential WR1 with your third pick.
Garrett Wilson, Jets
Having finished as a WR2 in 2022, it almost feels like cheating to put Wilson on this list. What’s particularly impressive is that he achieved this despite Zach Wilson starting nine games for the Jets last season. With Aaron Rodgers behind center this year, Wilson will undoubtedly benefit from a significant upgrade in quarterback play, positively affecting the entire offense.
However, Wilson is likely to face increased competition for targets this year. Allen Lazard, who held a 21% target share, was Rodgers’ top receiver on the Packers, and now he’s also on the Jets, creating some familiarity in the receiving corps. As a result, Wilson’s target share might decrease slightly.
Currently ranked as the WR10, we remain optimistic about Wilson’s chances of finishing as a WR1. He certainly ranks among the top 12 wide receivers, according to PFF player grades. There’s no denying his talent, and there’s every reason to believe his aDOT and YPRR will improve with Rodgers throwing the ball. However, we could see a drop in opportunity. The Jets have significantly improved, which means they may not face as many negative game scripts as they did last year, leading to a higher rushing share and fewer passes. Perhaps the offensive efficiency will make up for it, but it’s enough of a concern for me to rank him slightly behind Olave as a potential WR1 this year.
Christian Watson, Packers
Christian Watson had a strong second half of his rookie season, with impressive stats such as 35.6% Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), 3.58 Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), and 11 Red Zone Targets. He ranked 10th in fantasy points from week 10 through week 18, with only 6.5 targets per game.
These numbers indicate a breakout season coming for Watson. However, with Jordan Love now behind center in Green Bay, it’s hard to know what to expect from the offense. The Packers passing game certainly wasn’t spectacular last season, so perhaps there will only be a modest decline in their numbers. Even so, Watson will require a much larger target share to achieve a top 24 finish. He will also need to improve his drop rate, which was in the bottom quadrant of eligible WRs.
Watson would undoubtedly have a higher ADP if Aaron Rodgers were still in Green Bay. However, I think his ADP is fair as the 24st WR off the board, which indicates a low-end WR2. If he’s able to get more opportunities this year, Watson could outperform his ADP significantly.
On the Brink
George Pickens, Steelers
George Pickens possesses star potential but currently finds himself as the third option in the pecking order behind Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. For Pickens to have enough opportunities and become a WR2, the Steelers’ offense would require significant improvement from their 24th-ranked passing offense. While he presents a fantastic option in dynasty leagues with the potential to shine as a future star in the league, I don’t foresee him surpassing WR3 territory in the upcoming season.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders
Dotson earned his spot on this list due to his impressive aDot and Average Target Distance. He finished sixth in fantasy points per target. However, he holds the second-lowest PFF grade among the receivers mentioned in this article and finds himself in a below-average offensive, playing for a below-average team.
While Dotson’s talent and skill-set have the potential to lead him to a breakout star status in the future, I don’t see a WR2 finish in the cards for him this season.
Treylon Burks, Titans
Treylon Burks missed six games in his rookie season, but showed plenty of promise. He posted above-average TPRR and average target distance numbers. With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, Burks isn’t likely to see his target share go up, which is concerning, considering the Titans have a run-heavy offense. Although Burks is a talented receiver (boasting a higher PFF grade than George Pickens and Jahan Dotson), Burks may not truly breakout until Tennessee moves on from Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. I’m avoiding him at his 7th round ADP.
