7 Overhyped Players I Am Avoiding in 2023

It happens every year. Certain players see themselves go into the fantasy season with a lot of buzz. Experts and enthusiasts alike get excited for what might be. Rankings get made. Tiers get reorganized. ADPs rise. But as certain as death and taxes, some, if not most, of these players will end up disappointing their owners and fail to live up to the hype and expectations their ADP would suggest. It’s never easy to claim with any type of certainty who will succeed and who won’t, but if you’re paying attention, sometimes there are clues as to who will take off and who will stall. Here are seven players I think are being overhyped this fantasy season, and as such, I will be avoiding.

Quick Links

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott’s been a solid fantasy QB in the past. There have been moments when it looked as if he would take the necessary step to leap into the upper echelon at the position. But I’m afraid if he hasn’t done it by now, this season won’t be the year he does. The main reason? Mike McCarthy. With the departure of offensive coordinator Kellan Moore, McCarthy will be calling plays for the Cowboys in 2023. During his time in Green Bay, McCarthy relied heavily on his running backs in an attempt to control pace and game flow, and this was with a future Hall of Famer at the helm. Dallas also has one of the better defenses in the league should mean less need to air it out, leading to fewer pass attempts, fewer big plays downfield, and most likely fewer scoring opportunities. When investing a top 10 QB, you are hoping for a slightly higher ceiling, not a low one. If you wait on QB and are staring down players like Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, or Aaron Rodgers, let someone else take a chance on Prescott while adding a bit more upside to your roster.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans

When on the field Hopkins has proven to be one of most consistent and productive fantasy commodities. In nine games last year, Hopkins had 64 receptions, 717 yards, and three touchdowns, scoring nearly 17 points per game in PPR formats. Those are solid numbers. But he was also the third most targeted WR on a per game basis with 10.7 targets a game. Now Hopkins finds himself on a team that has ranked 30th or lower in pass attempts per game in each of the last three seasons. Combine that with his age and recent injury issues; there is far more risk than reward here. Hopkins is currently going as the WR20, before players like D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, and Christian Watson. All are younger with a higher ceiling and a clearer path to a high volume. Give me all of them before Hopkins.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Coming into the NFL, there was a lot of excitement surrounding the Alabama running back. He seemed to possess the talent and, in Pittsburgh, the opportunity to shine right out of the gate. But after two seasons Harris has yet to really show off that electric big play potential he flashed in college. While the workload has been there, the efficiency has not. Harris has yet to surpass 4.0 yards per attempt over the course of any one season, paving the way for more reps for UDFA Jaylen Warren. Warren has taken those opportunities and run with them (pun intended.) If Warren even handles a quarter of the backfield touches it will greatly cap Harris’ upside. If Warren actually outperforms Harris with those touches, at some point we could see a pretty even split. For a player that needs to maintain a heavy workload of 20+ touches in order to produce, that would not be ideal, and is not what you hope for when you draft someone in the top 12 at their position. Count me out.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

Let’s get this out of the way. Breece Hall is a very talented running back on what should be a much more improved team with the additions of Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook. But the Cook signing, which was arguably the biggest signing on the running back market, could drastically cap Hall’s upside. There are those that hold the belief that signing Cook was done more out of necessity (due to Hall’s injury in 2022) and less about the player himself. But those people are clearly forgetting how consistently good Cook has been, with at least 1,135 rushing yards in four straight years. During that same span he’s averaging over 40 catches and 350 receiving yards. Cook is going to get work in this offense. That’s not great for a player who already has the red flag of an ACL tear. When Hall is healthy he will be involved, and is still the future at the position for this franchise. But anyone who thinks he will just take back complete control of this backfield once he’s full strength, leaving Cook on the trash heap of irrelevance, is fooling themselves.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

No one doubts Pitts’ talent. He is an athletic freak who is a matchup nightmare for anyone playing against him. What is uncertain is just how good Desmond Ridder can be, and how much volume he will provide. Last season, the Falcons were second in the league in rushing attempts per game, and with the addition of generational talent Bijan Robinson, there’s no reason for that philosophy to change. So the volume may not be there, and when it is, the quality of those targets are in question with a young, inexperienced quarterback under center. Even if Ridder is better than expected, Pitts isn’t the only talented pass catcher on the team. Drake London is still there to soak up targets and Robinson is a talented pass catcher in his own right. This could once again set the stage for a disappointing fantasy season. Pitts could be a difference-maker at the position. A player with elite talent who already had a 1000-yard season in his rookie year. He is still very young, at just 22, and in dynasty I’d be holding him and trying to acquire him because, eventually, things should get better. It’s just hard to see that happening in 2023.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

I actually love the way McLaurin plays football. He’s a talented receiver hitting his prime, but there are several things on this Commander’s offense that could end up working against him. First, we have no idea how good Sam Howell is. He has looked good this preseason, but it’s still just preseason. Secondly, Jahan Dotson is rightfully gaining a lot of buzz. He is an exciting young WR prospect and arguably the best WR McLaurin has ever had playing beside him. While he’s used to being on a below-average offense, McLaurin has still been able to produce due to his commanding target share. If that drops substantially because Dotson finds himself in the midst of a breakout season, or they choose to utilize Antonio Gibson in the passing game, or Curtis Samuel refuses to go away (or worse, all three) then McLaurin could be the source of much frustration for his fantasy owners. He’s being drafted as the WR22 overall, around the 4/5 turn. That’s too expensive considering the other players being drafted in that range.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

Last year, T.J. Hockenson proved just how good he could be as a pass catcher in what ended up being a career year. Often after being traded mid-season it can take time for players, even talented ones, to acclimate themselves to the new system and start to produce. But he didn’t miss a beat when Hockenson was traded from Detroit to Minnesota. In 10 games with Minnesota, he averaged nearly nine targets and 52 yards per game, tacking on three touchdowns. So why am I avoiding him? Three letters. ADP. Not as the TE3 off the board. I can understand that rationale. After Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are gone, Hockenson provides as much potential upside as anyone else at the position. But his ADP as a fourth round pick is just too high. In Hockenson, you have a player who has never reached 1,000 yards receiving or more than six touchdowns in a single season. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but on a team that features Justin Jefferson and new rookie Jordan Addison, it’s not something I’m willing to bet on.