Mark Andrews Fantasy 2023
Let’s get this out of the way. Mark Andrews is a top-two tight end. I have yet to see any fantasy tight end ranking that doesn’t have Travis Kelce as number one and Mark Andrews as number two. When approaching the tight end position the advantage in finding someone who is both consistent and has massive upside cannot be overstated. True difference makers at the position can pay huge dividends week in and week out. Only two tight ends are in good offenses, elite talents, and the number one target in their passing game – Kelce and Andrews. This makes them hot commodities come draft time. The issue isn’t their talent, productivity, or what they will mean to your fantasy team. The issue is the high price you have to pay in order to get one of them (Kelce is more expensive than Andrews) and whether passing on another wide receiver or running back (positions you have to play more than one of) is worth it. The simple answer is if any player not named Kelce is worth it, it’s Andrews, but it probably depends on how your draft plays out.
Current ADP
- ADP: #29
- TE ADP: #2
A mid-third-round pick for an elite playmaker at a difficult position to find consistency in seems fair. Just know that in drafting Andrews, you’re passing on players like Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne, and Lamar Jackson. As the second tight end off the board it’s hard to imagine his ADP rising at all between now and the end of August, but if it were to do so, the argument to draft him would be harder to make. In the middle of the third round it’s easier to justify, although just because you can understand the logic behind it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the right choice. Some swear by the advantage having one of the top tight ends provides, but the numbers don’t always support that philosophy. Where Kelce is concerned, it’s absolutely true. On a per game basis, Kelce scored about six points more than the next closest tight end in PPR formats. That’s a real, significant advantage. It’s also the reason Kelce has a first round price tag. But looking at the difference between those who finished 2-5 in fantasy points per game, there was only a difference of 1.6 points per game between the top and bottom. If you could guarantee me that by the end of the season there would only be about a two point difference on a per game basis between Andrews and Darren Waller (the current TE5), I’d wait and take Waller who is going nearly 40 picks later.
Fantasy Insight
In 2022, Andrews finished as the number four tight end in PPR formats with 190.5 points, averaging 12.7 fantasy points per game. This starkly contrasted to the previous season when he finished as the top tight end with 301.1 total points. An average of 17.7 points per game. There were several reasons for this decline. First, opposing defenses adjusted to focus on Andrews. With no other proven receiving threats Andrews experienced constant double teams. Yet, during the first six weeks of the season he still managed four games of 20+ points. But after Rashod Bateman suffered a season-ending injury, defenses were able to focus even more on Andrews. He also had the misfortune of a carousel of quarterbacks throughout the season. After Jackson missed the final five games due to injury and Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown took over as his quarterbacks, it all proved to be too much to overcome, ultimately tanking his production and any promise provided by the first third of the season. That promise has returned with a healthy Jackson, Bateman, and Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers additions to the receiver room. This could lead to a more balanced offense and a more prolific passing game. A passing game that Andrews should still be at the center of, but inevitably there will be more mouths to feed, and how this will impact Andrews’ overall production remains to be seen. It could lead to a smaller piece of the pie and an underwhelming season, but with the trust and chemistry Andrews and Jackson have developed over the last few years it’s hard to imagine that being the case. Or, because opposing defenses have to account for an improved passing attack, things could open even more for Andrews resulting in him once again finishing as the TE1. Clearly, if you draft him, you hope it’s the latter.
Fantasy Value
Whether or not you see value where Andrews is going in drafts depends on where you see him finishing the season, and what you think the overall fantasy landscape will be at the tight end position this year. There is no doubt that Andrews is a dynamic playmaker and a go to target for Jackson. Even though more competition for targets could lead to a few down games, it will take time for those other receivers to become consistent contributors. Andrews should remain the lead dog in the passing game. If you believe he can again reach his 2021 level then he just might be worth the early round pick. His ability to line up all over the field makes him a versatile weapon in this offense, and despite his size he possesses a rare agility and open field awareness that allows him to gain significant yards after the catch. I would prefer him closer to the 3/4 turn than early or mid third round, but either way there are few people in this range that are as sure of a bet as Andrews, and if tight end is the route you want to go, it’s hard to argue too hard against it.
Dynasty Value
At just 27 years old, Mark Andrews is still in what should be the prime years of his career, with many years of productive play ahead. In dynasty leagues, having a player who can contribute for several seasons is a coveted asset. His youth, quarterback connection, position scarcity, offensive system, and long-term consistency all contribute to his significant and enduring value. Acquiring Andrews in dynasty leagues can set your team up for years of competitive success, so if you were able to buy him it would be worth it to do so. The only issue is the cost would be steep. You’d probably have to give up a high rookie pick and player of significant value at another position. But if the Andrews owner feels he is starting to lose his shine after a down year in 2022 and more competition in 2023, and you are able to buy low on him, I would do that in a heartbeat. On the other hand, if you have another tight end on your roster you feel good about starting every week and you’d like to turn Andrews into a significant return, I’m not opposed to that either. It may be worth it if you can get a young wide receiver or running back and a pick, depending on the rest of your team. But don’t just give him away, and honestly, he’s more like the type of player you build a roster around than the kind you try to move on from.
Bold Prediction
The dominoes for Andrews will fall into place as the offense becomes more pass heavy with him being the biggest benefactor, putting it all together in service of a truly remarkable season. His receptions and yards will surpass his 2021 numbers as he also scores the most touchdowns of his career. 115 receptions, 1500 yards, and 14 touchdowns finishing as the TE1.
