Joe Mixon Fantasy 2023
Since coming into the NFL, Joe Mixon has been an undervalued fantasy commodity year in and year out despite the fact that he has been fairly productive at the position. While lacking true receiving upside he has still managed to finish as a top 15 PPR running back in four of six seasons (three of which were top 10, including a top-five season just two years ago.) Still, he has continued to be saddled with the label “solid but unexciting” every single year. This has led to him being drafted later than you would expect for someone who has finished as an RB1 more often than not. Which would be understandable if there were still serious questions regarding his contract and role on the team, but he recently restructured his contract putting any doubt about his status with the Bengals for 2023 (and potentially beyond) behind him. Perhaps the lack of faith surrounding him is because there is some fear he could face suspension for a misdemeanor aggravated menacing charge after allegedly pointing a gun at a woman, but legal issues often take time and it is more likely that he will either face no discipline at all or that we won’t feel the repercussions of any punishment until 2024. Whatever the reason, it is clear there is very little excitement surrounding Mixon, and this is something that savvy fantasy players should take advantage of.
Current ADP
- ADP: #35
- WR ADP: #15
While Mixon’s ADP has risen from the fourth round to the end of the third after the news broke about his restructured contract, it still feels a little low to me. There are unproven players like Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard going a round to a round a half higher than him, and Bijan Robinson (a rookie who has yet to take a single NFL snap) has an ADP of seventh overall. Then there are players like Najee Harris, Travis Etienne Jr., and Kenneth Walker going ahead of him this year. But if any perceived question marks surrounding Mixon are going to be held against him then they also need to be included in evaluating these other players. First, I understand the hype surrounding Pollard and Stevenson. They were great last year and now have the job to themselves. They deserve to be going ahead of Mixon. I can even get on board, somewhat, with Robinson (although I think the first round is too high), because he is considered a generational talent and has landed in a wonderful spot for him to have an opportunity to produce. But Harris lacked efficiency last year and plays on an offense that everyone acknowledges will have some growing pains in 2023, whereas Mixon plays on one of the best offenses in football. Etienne has had durability issues and has a new teammate in Tank Bigsby, and the Seahawks used a second-round draft pick on Zach Charbonnet. Although he is currently out with a shoulder injury, when healthy, Charbonnet will have a role in that offense. Plus, Walker is currently out with an injury of his own (groin.) The fact that a player who has finished as the RB34 (rookie season), RB10, RB13, RB49 (only played six games), RB4, and RB10 is going behind those players seems illogical. Mixon will be in a three down role and with Samaje Perine gone he will have a larger piece of the pass-catching pie. This could lead to one of the best seasons of his career and his ADP should reflect that potential upside. I rank him closer to RB10 and would draft him around the 2-3 turn.
Fantasy Insight
As one of the few true workhorse backs left in the NFL, Mixon has often held one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in football. This puts him in a great spot for fantasy success, and yet Mixon hasn’t always delivered on that promise. While it’s true that he is not what anyone would call an elite talent at the position, there have been other reasons for the occasional down season, including a poor offensive line and an overall offensive roster that pales in comparison to their current team. However, when discussing the running back position, situation, role, and opportunity can make up for any shortcomings, and often have where Mixon is concerned. Volume, specifically, is one aspect of the game that has always helped lead to fantasy production for Mixon, but in 2022 his volume actually improved. First off, his role in the passing game increased, seeing a 14.2% target share (ninth highest among running backs) and more receptions (60) than he had targets in any other season. In fact, his 75 targets were the sixth most in the league, and while Perine also recorded 51 targets, with him gone Mixon’s only competition is Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans, and Chase Brown: two sixth-round picks and a fifth-round pick respectively. They are not a threat to Mixon’s playing time, and should not scare anyone away from drafting him.
Fantasy Value
Despite poor efficiency, Mixon finished as the RB10 in PPR leagues last year and in 2021 he was RB4 (a season that saw him score 16 TDs.) In 2023, with similar work in the run game and more work in the passing game his numbers could easily be closer to the RB4 range than the RB 10-15. Right now he is being drafted as the RB15, which means if he does see an increased workload on a high-flying offense he could end up being a tremendous value. In 2022, Mixon had 270 touches with 46 of them coming in the red zone. His red zone touches were actually sixth most in the league, despite missing two games. If his red zone production would’ve included just two more touchdowns he would’ve finished as the RB7. Assuming his opportunities increase, a fair assumption to be sure, I would expect his trips to the end zone to also increase, which means you could be getting an RB1 who flirts with a top 5-7 finish at the back end of the third. That is something any lover of fantasy can get behind.
Dynasty Value
In dynasty, it’s a bit more difficult to evaluate Mixon’s value. At 27 years old and only guaranteed to be with the Bengals for this season, it is much harder to make the case that he should be held in dynasty. The issue with trying to sell him at this point is the way he is valued in dynasty circles may be the lowest it’s been in years. Running backs often start to decline at the age of 27-28, and then sharply decline at 29. That means that in holding him you find yourself with an aging back who (at best) most likely has one or two strong seasons left. Then there’s the chance of him playing somewhere else in 2024 and being in a much less fantasy-friendly role, plus his lingering legal issues that could lead to some sort of suspension at a time when he’s closer to the end of his career than the beginning of it. Your best bet is to identify those teams in your league that are in win now mode and offer them a trade for a younger piece and a pick. If you could trade him for a player like Bigsby and a second round rookie pick or Roschon Johnson and a third round rookie pick, I would do it. Or you could target a young, sleeper wide receiver and a draft pick as well, based on team need. Either way I would shop Mixon around and try to unload him while he still has some value. You could wait until he plays a few weeks, in the hopes that his role and production do increase, and then trade him to a team looking for that player that will put them over the edge this season, but that does come with some risk. The only caveat to this is if you are the team trying to win now. In that case, I can see some logic in holding him, but then you could find yourself saddled with him until he retires.
Bold Prediction
With the departure of Perine, I actually really like Mixon this year in redraft. With a three down role, an increased role in the passing game, and a depressed market for him in fantasy, I think he will have his best statistical season, in both real and fantasy football and outperform his ADP as the RB15. He will (once again) find the top 10 at the position, finishing as RB7, with 1400 total yards, 75 receptions, and 11 TDs.
