Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy
Coming into the NFL there was not a lot of hype surrounding Rhamondre Stevenson. After being drafted 120th overall by the Patriots in the 4th round most “experts” weren’t entirely sure how to gauge his potential as an NFL-caliber running back, and playing behind Damien Harris no one knew how much opportunity he would get. But in the seven games (as a rookie) where Stevenson got 10 or more carries he averaged 5.89 yards per carry. Then last season he saw more opportunities in both the run game and passing game finishing with 1040 yards on 210 attempts, averaging 5 yards a carry. He also contributed 69 receptions for another 421 yards, and six total TDs. That’s 16 touches on a per-game basis by a running back that proved extremely efficient with those touches. Now (as of this writing) he sits atop the depth chart, with very little competition for touches, and based on what we’ve seen his first two seasons he should produce for any squad lucky enough to draft him.
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Current ADP
- ADP: #24
- RB ADP: #10
Sitting as the 24th player taken off the board and the 10th running back feels about right. In 2022, Stevenson finished as a top 15 running back in all formats (#14 in non-PPR, #11 in half PPR, and #7 in full PPR.) All this while splitting work with Harris for 3/4 of the season. In fact, I believe the main reason he’s sitting at the back end of the second round and not the middle or front end is because of the looming fear that the Patriots still might sign one of the remaining free agent running backs. There have been reports that they are one of three potential landing spots for either Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette. If this were to happen, Stevenson’s ADP would drop based on the assumption that the new acquisition would eat into his workload (Cook more so than Fournette), but even then I would only expect it to drop a few spots. But if the Patriots pass on both of these veterans and Stevenson does in deed have the job to himself he could easily end up with a top 6-8 ADP, which would be closer to the beginning of the second round than the end of it.
Fantasy Insight
In 2022, the run game of the Patriots had a far greater impact than their passing game, and Stevenson was a major part of it. The jury is still out on Mac Jones’ future as an NFL quarterback, but you could argue that his lack of success (he finished 23rd at the position) was largely due to a lack of overall talent surrounding him. The issue is the Patriots haven’t really done much to improve upon it. They did add Juju Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker. While they provide a veteran presence that could aide in developing a young quarterback they aren’t exactly the type of receivers that strike fear in their opponents. The Patriots have also failed to add any running backs of note. As I mentioned they could be in a bidding war for either Cook or Fournette. Cook was productive last season with nearly 1500 total yards and 10 total TDs, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. He would be the greater threat to playing time for Stevenson. Fournette was far less efficient on the ground, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, totaling just under 700 yards. But he did add over 70 receptions for over 500 yards. So his impact would most likely be felt in the passing game. As the cheaper option, Fournette makes more sense if they were to sign one of these two. I don’t see a reality where they sign a player like Cook when they already have a potential three-down back in Stevenson. There simply is no need to sign anyone to be a lead back in this offense. They already have one, and they should run the offense through him.
Fantasy Value
If his ADP stays where it is then he should be targeted in all formats, but even if it rises to the middle or beginning of the second round, his top five upside would still make his selection worth it. Yes, you read that right, top five (especially in PPR.) When talking value you want to look at the player’s past production, current opportunity, and where they are going in drafts. So how does Stevenson stand up to this type of scrutiny? A 1000 yard rusher who catches passes and has recently finished as an RB1 in both half and full PPR. That’s production. Lack of competition for touches. That’s opportunity. Being drafted toward the end of the second round, sometimes even sneaking into the top of the third. Add it all up and it screams value.
Dynasty Value
In Dynasty, Stevenson is even more appealing. Although he is the 13th ranked dynasty running back, at just 25 years of age and now with a potential bell cow role, Stevenson is a top 10 dynasty running back, in my view, with the chance to rise even higher. He’s still on his rookie contract and only has fourth-round draft capital so there is very little risk to the Patriots if he doesn’t work out, but by their moves (or lack of moves) this offseason and through the draft, it’s clear they believe they’ve found a potential gem and will give him every opportunity to succeed. If you’re looking to win now you could try to sell Stevenson while his value is that of a dynasty running back right outside the top 12. I have seen him go for a player like Ekeler and another small piece, and if you’re trying to win now and want someone who is a bit more proven and trustworthy I could see a trade like that being worth it. But on a rebuild team, I would hold onto Stevenson. There is some risk, mostly in the form of any future running back they may sign, but if that were to happen I see that as more of an issue in redraft than in dynasty. In Dynasty, he’s much more of a buy or hold than a sell.
Bold Prediction
Going into his third year I’d be lying if I didn’t admit there are a variety of ways things could play out for Stevenson. I’m probably a bit more bullish on him than many, because I just don’t see the team adding anyone to challenge him. The most likely scenario is that his stiffest competition comes from second year running back Pierre Strong, Jr. But their skill sets are very different and Stevenson is a bigger back who is more capable of filling the three down role. Strong may take some of his pass catching duties away, but even if those opportunities dip slightly his rushing attempts should go up with no Harris there to compete with, leading to close to 20 touches a game. In 2022 he went over 1400 total yards and 6 TDs on 16 touches a game, making him the RB7 in PPR. Another year in the system where he is “the guy” should only lead to greater production. I predict 1600 total yards, 55 catches, and 13 TDs, finishing as the RB5.
