Over the course of his five seasons in the NFL, D.J. Moore has been the epitome of consistency. He has had seasons of 788 yards receiving (his rookie season), 1175 yards, 1193 yards, 1157 yards, and most recently 888 yards. He has done all this while dealing with a steady rotation of quarterbacks which included Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, and P.J. Walker. Other than Newton, who he only got to play with for one full season, those other names don’t really inspire confidence, and yet he found a way to surpass 1000 yards three of the last four seasons. One thing is clear: Moore is a talented receiver who can find production in any situation. While 2022 was a slight downturn, it feels more like the exception than the rule. Last year he only caught about 53% of his targets, finishing with 63 receptions: his lowest total since his rookie season. But that feels more like a product of the quality of those targets than an issue with Moore the player, and now he switches teams for a fresh start, in a new system, playing with arguably the best QB of his career.
Current ADP
- ADP: #52
- WR ADP: #21
Much of the hesitation surrounding Moore and the Chicago Bears offense as a whole is baked into Moore’s ADP, as is his consistency over the last four seasons finishing as the WR16, WR25, WR18, and WR24 in PPR formats. But what is clearly being overlooked is his obvious upside in this offense. Reports out of camp have been very positive regarding the Fields/Moore connection. Last year, Justin Fields was without a true WR1. No matter how much you may like Darnell Mooney he is clearly more comfortable (and finds more success) as the second option than the first. In Moore, the Bears and Fields have their WR1. I get it. Last year the Bears were a run first team, limiting Fields’ pass attempts. But I think that was because of the supporting cast around him. This year the Bears beefed up the offensive line and signed Robert Tonyan along with Moore. This indicates they plan on utilizing Fields’ arm more than last year, and Moore is going to be the biggest beneficiary of that change. But his ADP doesn’t reflect that fact. He’s being valued at what he’s always been; a solid (if unexciting) WR2 in the WR17-WR21 range, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon; at least not until he proves the upside we keep hoping for is more than a mirage. So if you wanted to take a chance on young guys like Jerry Jeudy and Christian Watson, or if you buy the re-emergence of Calvin Ridley, or think DeAndre Hopkins or Keenan Allen are safer bets (all of whom are going around the same place in drafts as Moore) I completely understand. But if the Bears are the team that finally finds a way to unleash Moore’s potential, he is being drafted several spots too low, and you will be sorry you passed on him.
Fantasy Insight
Many analysts, when discussing Moore and the fantasy season, start with how much they like Moore the player, while also labeling him a player to avoid in his current situation. But I don’t understand the reasoning. Right now you are drafting him as a low-end WR2 and in some drafts, I’ve seen people get him as a WR3. If you can find a perennial 1000-yard receiver that late in drafts I don’t see the risk. But the reward is great. Last season, Moore was top 12 in air yards and #1 overall in air yards share, meaning he accounted for more of his team’s air yards than any other player. He was also top 5 in deep targets and top 12 in target share at 27.7% of his team’s targets. These are all great numbers that should lead to success surpassing the last few years now that he has a better quarterback distributing the ball to him. All it will take is developing chemistry with Fields and it sounds like that is already happening. This all bodes well for Moore to have the best season (real and fantasy) of his career. There are legitimate reasons to be skeptical of how high this offense can fly in 2023, but that skepticism is already reflected in his ADP. But it wouldn’t be that out of the ordinary to see a skilled player switch teams in the prime of his career and go on to great success. While not a certainty, it is definitely within Moore’s range of outcomes, and worth the low price you’d be paying for him.
Justin Fields to D.J. Moore 😮💨
(🎥 @ChicagoBears)
pic.twitter.com/e1Orvy6qyp— PFF (@PFF) June 1, 2023
Fantasy Value
I clearly see some value in Moore. I see him as a mid to high-end WR2 with upside. Everything we’ve heard and seen so far is positive and he will easily be the best receiver Fields has ever thrown to. I know, I know. In college Fields had an embarrassment of riches at the wide receiver position with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jameson Williams, but he was throwing to them when they were elite college talents, not great NFL players. Right now Moore is going behind Wilson (WR10) and Olave (WR13) and ahead of Smith-Njigba (WR44) and Williams (WR50.) Based on all the unknowns surrounding Fields and the Bears offense I’m fine with that positioning, but if things fall right for Moore he could finish among or even ahead of them, and you’d be drafting him 2-3 rounds later.
Dynasty Value
Moore’s dynasty value all hinges on the development of Fields, but my gut tells me Moore will be much more highly regarded in dynasty circles by the end of the 2023 season than he is now. The general consensus seems to be that because he’s never finished as a WR1, he’s incapable of doing so. I think that is an extremely unimaginative way of thinking. His upside has always been capped by either the existence of offensive juggernaut Christian McCaffrey, or the existence of a journeyman quarterback. Now he takes over as the lead dog on an improving team with a young, talented QB. Another factor is the contract. In trading for Moore the Bears chose to take on a lucrative contract worth $61.88 million with $41.61 million fully guaranteed. This provides incentive to incorporate him as a centerpiece of this offense. Because the market is down on him right now I would be attempting to buy low on Moore. Right now he is ranked as the WR34 in dynasty behind players like Davante Adams and DeVonta Smith and right around players like Chris Godwin, Christian Watson, and Deebo Samuel. Whether in a rebuild, or trying to win now, I would put Moore above all of them.
Bold Prediction
With a new setting, a new quarterback, new system, and new expectations, I think Moore is going to shine in the Windy City. He has yet to go over 1200 receiving yards in a season, exceed 7 touchdowns, or crack the top 12 in fantasy at the position. I think he does all three in 2023. 85 receptions, 1300 yards, and 9 TDs.
