8 Interesting Advanced NFL Fantasy Metric Stats For Week 15

Written by Eric Moody
December 13, 2019
1,264 views

Advanced Fantasy Metrics

This article will focus on the running back position and tell you about eight must-read advanced stats you should know about as we approach Sunday's Week 15 slate of NFL action. The advanced metrics that FantasyData provides our subscribers are not the end all be all. They are very useful at helping you better understand matchups and make the best possible lineup decision.

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Christian McCaffrey has averaged 27.2 opportunities per game over his last six games

McCaffrey's averaging 1.06 fantasy points per opportunity this season. Max Henson wrote an article that mentioned he already has 1,220 rushing yards and is only 274 away from 1,000 receiving yards with three games remaining. Could McCaffrey become the third member of the 1,000-1,000 club?

According to Pro Football Reference, the only members are Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk. McCaffrey faces a Seahawks defense in Week 15 that has allowed an average of 17.4 touches and 83.6 total yards per game to top running back scorers over its last five. He will likely exceed those statistical numbers with another RB1 finish. 

Joe Mixon has the second most opportunities per game (23.8) over his last six games

The only other running back with more opportunities per game over that time frame is McCaffrey. Mixon had trouble getting past the line of scrimmage on many of his rushing attempts earlier this season due to Cincinnati's offensive line play. He's bounced back once the Bengals redesigned their running game during the bye week. Mixon's picked up 469 yards over the last five games which ranks third in the NFL. He also leads all running backs with 105 rushing attempts.

Mixon ran for a career-high 146 yards last week in a loss to the Browns. He ranks fourth in our Juke Rate metric. It isolates a running back's on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches. Mixon also ranks 10th in Yards Created. This metric measures all yards above and beyond what was blocked. Yards Created are generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. Mixon's matchup against the stout Patriots run defense is less than ideal. He can be viewed as a volume-based RB2. 

Devin Singletary (33.3%) ranks third in Juke Rate 

The only other running backs who rank higher in this advanced metric are Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Singletary's averaged 20.2 opportunities per game over his last six with positive total fantasy points over expectation. He ranks second in Yards Created per attempt and tied for the fifth most breakaway runs (11) with Dalvin Cook. This metric tracks rushing attempts of 15 yards or more.

Singletary's averaged 0.87 fantasy points per opportunity this season. He has a difficult matchup against a Steelers defense in Week 15 that has allowed only 11.5 PPR fantasy points per game to running back scorers over its last five. Singletary has enough athleticism to transcend this matchup. He can be viewed as a solid RB2. 

Raheem Mostert's Number of Breakaway Runs (10)

Mostert has averaged 16.5 opportunities per game over his last two. He's tied with Chris Carson and Marlon Mack for the 10th most breakaway runs this season. Mostert's averaged 1.03 fantasy points per opportunity this season. He's looking like a potential league winner. Here is what I wrote about Mostert in my Start 'Em Sit 'Em column this week. 

Mostert rushed 10 times for 69 yards and a touchdown while catching all two of his targets for 40 yards and a second touchdown in the 49ers win over the Saints. He's never started a game in his NFL career, but Mostert is currently leading San Francisco in rushing with 608 yards and four touchdowns on 102 rushing attempts. He played 40 of the 49ers 67 offensive snaps against the Saints while Tevin Coleman (11) and Matt Breida (12) were barely on the field. Mostert is leaving the 49ers coaching staff with no choice but to play him and head coach Kyle Shanahan's comments suggest they'll continue to feed him as long as the production is there. He's averaging 3.6 total fantasy points per game more than expected this season which leads the 49ers backfield. Mostert can be viewed as a high-end RB2 against the Falcons. Atlanta's defense has allowed a per game average of 17.8 touches, 110.2 total yards, 0.2 touchdowns, and 19.6 PPR fantasy points per game to top running back scorers over its last five. 

Chris Carson Fantasy.jpg

Chris Carson ranks third in Yards Created Per Game (35.5)

Dalvin Cook (38.2) and Derrick Henry (41.4) are the only running backs who average more Yards Created per game than Carson. He's also tied for the third-most evaded tackles with McCaffrey (77). Carson's averaged 20.6 opportunities per game over his last five. 

The Seahawks will move forward with Carson as their bell cow with C.J. Prosise operating in a change-of-pace role since Rashaad Penny is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. He faces a Panthers defense that has allowed an average of 13.6 touches, 88.2 total yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 20.2 PPR fantasy points per game to top running back scorers over its last five. Carson can be viewed as an RB1 for the rest of the season. 

Austin Ekeler leads all running backs in fantasy points per opportunity (1.36)

Ekeler rushed eight times for 101 yards in the Chargers win over the Jaguars last week. He also had four receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown. Ekeler is the second player in Chargers franchise history with 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in the same game according to ESPN Stats and Info. He joins Lionel James who accomplished the feat on September 22nd against the Bengals back in 1985. 

Ekeler has averaged 12.8 opportunities per game since Melvin Gordon returned back in Week 5. Ekeler's averaged 3.8 fantasy points per game more than expected over the Chargers' last nine games. He can still provide fantasy players with RB2 production despite the limited number of opportunities per game. The Chargers take on the Vikings in Week 15. Minnesota's defense has allowed an average of 18.6 touches, 88.6 total yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game to top running back scorers over its last five.  

Todd Gurley has averaged 21 opportunities per game over his last four games

The Rams' management of Gurley's workload earlier this season was a detriment to the team. Los Angeles' season was on the verge of collapsing before the team's star running back was unleashed against the Bears. Gurley had a season-high 28 touches and led the Rams to a win. The team's record has been 3-1 since and quarterback Jared Goff has played much better.

Gurley's averaged 0.79 fantasy points per opportunity this season. He's peaking at the right times for fantasy players who drafted him this summer. Gurley has averaged 2.3 fantasy points per game more than expected over his last four games. He can be viewed as a low-end RB1 in Week 15 against the Cowboys. Dallas' defense has allowed an average of 18.6 touches, 91 total yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 16 PPR fantasy points per game to top running back scorers over its last five. 

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Miles Sanders has averaged 0.83 fantasy points per opportunity 

Sanders rushed 15 times for 45 yards and caught four of five targets for 24 yards in the Eagles win over the Giants. He's averaged 17.4 opportunities per game over Philadephia's last five. Jordan Howard's shoulder injury has allowed Sanders to thrive.

The Eagles backfield will continue to be a committee. Boston Scott had 16 touches in last week's game. Sanders, in my opinion, will continue to be the touch favorite. The Eagles face the Redskins in Week 15. Washington's defense has allowed an average of 20.8 touches, 125 total yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 19.7 PPR fantasy points per game to top running back scorers over its last five. Sanders can be viewed as a low-end RB2. 

Conclusion

FantasyData has a wealth of statistical information available to you at your fingertips. Do you ever wonder how to weave all of the information together in order to make informed decisions for your fantasy football team? That's the purpose behind the Advanced Metrics series that Jody Smith and I are writing this season. One way to approach any decision in fantasy football is to analyze two things. The first one revolves around the narrative. What are NFL Insiders, beat writers, and coaches saying. The second one revolves around the statistics, metrics, and other data. Take a moment to think of a piano. You can play music with one hand, but once you use both hands the music is even better. You should have the same mindset when it comes to managing your fantasy football team. 

Please read my Start 'Em Sit 'Em column to help get ready for Week 15. If you have additional questions you can also refer to my fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium


Eric Moody

Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). His writing has been featured at FantasyPros, Gridiron Experts, RotoViz, and TwoQBs. He has a lifelong passion for the game and even played at the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level. When Eric provides advice, he uses game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. He enjoys time with his family, Netflix, music, bass guitar, and coffee