Week 15 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Bye Weeks no longer exist in the final four games of the 2021 NFL season. After a tumultuous, unpredictable 14 weeks, powerhouse teams like Green Bay, Arizona, Tampa Bay, New England, and Kansas City have begun demonstrating why they always wind up competing in the playoffs. Week 14 had four teams in the playoff hunt on Bye, so expect the first full slate in two months to be jam-packed with action and fourth-quarter drama.
Eight divisional games comprise half of the slate in Week 15, including two matchups on Saturday, so expect certain players to be eliminated due to opposing defensive strategies. Talented players who cannot perform create additional opportunities for the player second or third in the positional pecking order. It becomes increasingly important to maintain a balance between acknowledging how a player performed with specific personnel on the field while understanding the current state of a team’s depth chart and the vulnerability of the opposing defense. For example, starting Michael Pittman Jr. as a WR2 against the New England Patriots defense is expecting too much based on his previous WR17 finish against the Houston Texans. Identifying which players could be in line for a big day after a return from injury, like Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny in Week 14, makes the difference between winning and losing a fantasy championship.
I’ve collected roughly a dozen players who teeter on the edge of lineup territory and will assess whether each one is worthy of earning a start during a pivotal Week 15 in the National Football League.
Start ‘EM
Darrel Williams (RB) Kansas City Chiefs
Darrel Williams did not fade away upon the return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Williams has morphed into one of three running backs that Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid relies upon, as he caught all three of his targets for 31 yards and a receiving touchdown in a blowout win over the Las Vegas Raiders during Week 14. You aren’t starting the fourth-year running back for his carries, which have bounced between two and five across the last three games. Instead, you’re starting Williams for his receiving ability out of the backfield in an offense with one of the best passers in the league in Patrick Mahomes. His baseline is three targets per game, and he’s highly efficient on these touches, which will make him a lethal asset to start against the Los Angeles Chargers defense.
Darrel Williams leaps in for the @Chiefs TD! #ChiefsKingdom
📺: #LVvsKC on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/KRDfP9OdJp— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2021
The Chargers rank fifth-worst against fantasy running backs this year, and Williams could also usurp a couple of goal-line carries, depending on the playcalling. He’s a trusted target in the offense and has proven he can return significant value as a receiver. That is why Williams is an RB3 despite seeing limited volume. A short week playing in a divisional primetime road game means teams will not be at full strength, exposing the Chargers’ run defense woes. Expect a high-scoring game that likely won’t have Derrick Gore get nine carries again, as a blowout is much more unlikely against Justin Herbet at SoFi Stadium. This means Williams could see more touches in a plus-matchup, so keep him inserted as an RB3 with RB2 upside again in Week 15.
Devonta Freeman (RB) Baltimore Ravens
D’Onta Foreman (RB) Tennessee Titans
D’Onta Foreman has bounced around the AFC South division since joining the league in 2017 but has found a role in the Tennessee Titans backfield as of late. Since Derrick Henry’s injury, the bruising fourth-year running back has been a mainstay for the Titans, handling double-digit carries three times and adding a smattering of receptions during these six weeks. Foreman saw 32.4 percent of snaps in Week 14 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, behind Jeremy McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard, but still converted a five-yard rush into the end zone. Julio Jones’ return adds value to Foreman based on the defense adjusting to the best athlete on the Titans offense. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, Foreman can be treated as a solid RB3 with RB2 upside dependent upon his ability to find the end zone again. The Steelers have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in six consecutive weeks, meaning Foreman holds value even with limited work as a pass-catcher. It’s an excellent spot to roll Foreman into lineups, as Pittsburgh is playing without several members of its defense.
Julio Jones (WR) Tennessee Titans
Staying with the Tennessee Titans, I like Julio Jones to return a lot more value and generate markedly more production than he managed in his first game back from IR. Week 14 saw Jones play on only 45 percent of snaps, as Mike Vrabel and the Titans coaching staff eased him back into the game plan. To his credit, Jones caught four of six targets but fell under the 40-yard threshold for the fourth time in seven games this season. He matches up much better against Pittsburgh’s secondary, injured and has a lengthy laundry list of poor play against opposing wideouts all season long, resulting in a 13th-ranked matchup for Jones to recapture the 6-128 stat line he posted against Seattle back in Week 2. In addition, Ryan Tannehill has been in a passing slump, failing to record 200 passing yards in two consecutive games. He has also not been able to deliver over one passing touchdown since Week 8, which is cause for concern. Yet, the Steelers aren’t the dreaded defense of old. They are a favorable matchup for any skilled position player this season. Jones needs to get the offense going if they want to remain atop the AFC South down the stretch. It’s just as good of a matchup that Jacksonville presented a week ago, and Jones was productive despite playing less than half the snaps. A full week of practice and the adjustment to game speed should allow Jones to see more opportunity against a Steelers team in the death throes of its season. We all know the talent Jones possesses. It’s bound to show itself again soon, especially against a leaky Pittsburgh secondary. Jones is a low-end WR3 who could burst onto the scene and produce fringe WR1 numbers at Heinz Field this weekend.
Michael Gallup (WR) Dallas Cowboys
Michael Gallup out-snapped CeeDee Lamb in a huge Week 14 road win over the Washington Football Team. The fourth-year wideout has been heavily involved in the Dallas Cowboys offense since Week 11, drawing at least eight targets in every single game during this stretch. This has led to five receptions in four straight games. The Cowboys’ offense still relies on Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliot as it’s three-headed attack but Gallup quietly absorbs volume as a consistent high-end WR3 with WR2 upside. Two of his past four games have hit at least 60 receiving yards, including his first touchdown of the season against New Orleans in Week 13. Gallup finds himself in a plus-matchup on the road against the New York Giants, who are surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Historically, Dak Prescott has fared very well against the Giants, so lock Gallup into lineups as a fringe WR2 who should hit double-digit PPR points for the fourth straight week.
Jerry Jeudy (WR) Denver Broncos
Denver remains a competitive team in the AFC playoff hunt thanks to a strong running game and talented defensive personnel. Second-year wideout Jerry Jeudy is a phenomenal player and the Broncos’ WR1 but Teddy Bridgewater has been a liability for his development this season. Jeudy has not recorded a game in 2021 with double-digit targets through 14 weeks but he gets a good opportunity to display his route running prowess against the Cincinnati Bengals at home in Week 15.
Bridgewater finds Jeudy in stride on 4th and 3. pic.twitter.com/BLXXXzeEt1
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) December 12, 2021
The Bengals just allowed 39.1 PPR points to San Francisco 49ers wide receivers, who are a similar team to Denver in regards to their run-centric playcalling. Jeudy has drawn six targets in back-to-back outings and is becoming more of an intermediate target for Bridgewater to find, which allows for higher percentage throws and more opportunities to generate yards after a reception. Jeudy plays in an offense with few explosive passes but he is talented and involved enough to remain a viable WR3 against the Bengals in Week 15.
Zach Ertz (TE) Arizona Cardinals
The acquisition of Zach Ertz from the Philadelphia Eagles has added talent to an already elite core of players in Arizona. Kyler Murray and Ertz have only played in four games together but his dud against Chicago is nothing to fret over considering the weather. Kyler Murray targeted Ertz five times in their first game together against Houston and it turned into a 3-66-1 stat line for the Cardinals’ tight end. The matchup is favorable against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 14th against fantasy tight ends. Weather won’t be a factor and Murray is back under center. This means Ertz should see more usage than rookie speedster Rondale Moore and Christian Kirk but less run than A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, and James Conner. Ertz found the end zone twice with Colt McCoy filling in for Murray in Seattle back in Week 11. It’s good to know that he’s scored recently and benefits from a plus-matchup against the Lions, where he will seek his fifth touchdown in a Cardinals uniform.
Ryan Tannehill (QB) Tennessee Titans
There’s no sugarcoating it. Ryan Tannehill has been highly ineffective as a passer for long stretches this season. What the veteran quarterback has lacked in passing yards he has compensated for with his mobility, scoring a rushing touchdown in three of his last five games. The Tennessee Titans are currently atop the AFC South but will need to maintain a functional offense for the next month to remain in a good playoff position. Fortunately for Tannehill, he will face the Pittsburgh Steelers defense on the road in Week 15. The Steelers have surrendered 36-plus points in three of their last four games, while getting torched on the ground. Tannehill may not finish with more than 220 passing yards but a touchdown through the air and on the ground is highly probable, considering Pittsburgh’s injuries on the defensive side of the football. Their vulnerability to defending the run will be valuable when the Titans are in goal-to-go situations, as Tannehill often pulls the ball and beats a defender to the edge with his speed and elusiveness. He’s a low-floor, high-ceiling prospect that can turn his play around in a plus matchup. Normally, Tannehill is off the table for me but the return of Julio Jones helps provide much-needed support in the passing game to unlock Tannehill’s upside. Start him as a fringe QB1 due to the matchup and the 20-30 yard rushing cushion that Tannehill adds.
Sit ‘EM
Chuba Hubbard (RB) Carolina Panthers
Carolina is in a state of disarray. After a fast 3-0 start, things have taken a turn for the worse for the Panthers, firing OC Joe Brady during their Bye Week and proceeding to mishandle a carousel of Cam Newton and P.J. Walker in a stinging loss to the Atlanta Falcons at home in Week 14. Rookie running back Chuba Hubbard is mired in chaos and won’t be able to replicate the type of production we’ve seen Christian McCaffery handle in the past. Hubbard was held without a target in a favorable matchup against the Falcons defense last week and preserved his finish with a 17-yard rushing touchdown. Despite handling nine more carries, Hubbard only finished with 33 rushing yards. Ameer Abdullah is the passing-down back in the offense, so Hubbard will need to overcome the odds of Newton or Abdullah usurping valuable goal-line touches. Simply put, Hubbard is a high-risk player with a low floor that gets a bad matchup against Buffalo in Week 15. The Bills have allowed the seventh-fewest points to fantasy running backs this season and Hubbard’s lack of involvement as a receiver makes him a low-end RB3 reliant upon a rushing touchdown. Sit Hubbard and pivot to options like Darrel Williams, D’Onta Foreman, or Rhamondre Stevenson.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars
Marvin Jones Jr. played 98 percent of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offensive snaps in a 20-0 shutout against the Tennessee Titans in Week 14. Playing virtually every snap, the veteran wideout finished with six receptions for 70 yards, leading the Jaguars wide receiving corps in receptions and yards. It was certainly an improvement from his previous six-game stretch that saw him eclipse 50 receiving yards only once. The Titans are a vulnerable passing defense and a fantastic matchup for wide receivers, so don’t expect this type of production to continue when Jacksonville hosts the Houston Texans in Week 15. On the season, the Texans are actually ranked 16th against opposing fantasy wide receivers, which means Jones is due for regression. Trevor Lawrence also has locked into targeting Laquon Treadwell, distributing at least five targets or more to the journeyman wideout since Week 12. Laviska Shenault Jr. and Tavon Austin also steal work in one of the league’s most inept offenses. The pressure is too high on Jones to perform well and the Texans aren’t a soft matchup for wide receivers. Keep him benched and look at players like Russell Gage, Robby Anderson, or K.J. Osborn as improved and viable WR3 prospects.
Tyler Boyd (WR) Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati has a strong wide receiving corps and a strong running game, allowing Joe Burrow to dial-up big throws in clutch moments that allows the offense to be fully unlocked. A side effect of the improved collective is the downgraded role of slot wideout Tyler Boyd. Boyd has been a consistent WR3 in years past but the addition of rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has altered Boyd’s role within the offense. His targets fluctuate and the presence of Chase and Tee Higgins means most of the valuable downfield targets are being funneled elsewhere. The sixth-year wide receiver has not scored a touchdown since Week 8 and only has one game with 100-plus receiving yards. 12 targets across the last two weeks means Boyd is trending in the right direction but the Denver Broncos are a difficult matchup for wide receivers this season. The Broncos are the eighth-best team at limiting fantasy wide receivers. Expect a heavy dose of Joe Mixon in the running game and a few downfield targets to Burrow’s favorite targets, Chase and Higgins. This is not a game to target Boyd, who is capable of generating WR3 production if everything goes right. This game will be settled in the trenches on both sides, so keep Boyd out of lineups in Week 15.
Tyler Conklin (TE) Minnesota Vikings
Tyler Conklin seems to perform well in bad matchups and lays an egg when expected to perform in plus-matchups. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14, Conklin only saw two targets, dropping down from nine in Week 13. He becomes a quality streaming option any time he sees seven-plus targets but Kirk Cousins has shown that Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are his preferred targets when Adam Thielen is out of the lineup. This isn’t to say that Conklin is a bad receiving option. He’s got sure hands and runs good routes, while drawing 14 red zone targets, including seven in the end zone this season. It’s just how difficult it is to gauge Cousins’ preferences leading into a game. Factor in that the matchup will be played in primetime at Soldier Field against the Chicago Bears, who rank seventh-best against fantasy tight ends, makes me want to fade Conklin hard in Week 15. Starting a tight end always feels like a crap shoot if you don’t have a top-five stud, so feel free to take your chance on players like Gerald Everett, C.J. Uzomah, or Jared Cook.
Derek Carr (QB) Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr has fallen into the fringe of starting territory seemingly every week this season. The Las Vegas Raiders are a pass-centric offense that funnel targets to Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller when he’s healthy. Despite the high volume and opportunity to deliver huge production, Carr has not thrown two touchdowns since Week 10 and has yet to record three total touchdowns in any of the 13 games he’s played. Josh Jacobs is leaned on to generate touchdowns in an offense that has aired it out at least 38 times in their last three games. Even if Waller is cleared to return from a knee injury sustained against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Carr will have his hands full against the Cleveland Browns pass rush. Led by Myles Garrett and featuring other veteran edge rushers like Jadeveon Clowney, Carr will likely continue to commit turnovers and fail to find the end zone. Spare yourself the disappointment and pivot off of Carr to prospects like Ryan Tannehill, Tua Tagovailoa, or Ben Roethlisberger who all have better matchups with higher-upside in Week 15.
