It never fails. Every year as the fantasy season approaches, everyone makes their bold predictions and projections only to have them demolished by what plays out on the field. Whether due to forgotten players getting additional opportunities because of injuries, or because players we thought would take that next step fail to do so, instead disappointing everyone who took a chance on them, we are reminded just how unpredictable and random fantasy football can be. I’m still a believer in the “play your studs” mentality and that over an entire season, talent ultimately wins out, but through three weeks we have been met with some surprising developments. Developments that, if we’re being honest, would’ve been nearly impossible to predict just a month ago, and that ultimately make fantasy football so much fun.
8 Surprising Fantasy Stats Heading Into Week 4
Kirk Cousins (QB)
*Leads all QBs in yards and TDs
Prior to the 2023 season, Kirk Cousins was ranked just outside the top 12 at the position. So what has he done through three weeks? He’s thrown for more yards (1075) and more TDs (9) than any other QB. This has led to finishes as the QB9, QB2, and QB4, making him the QB1 overall on the season. Some of this is due to volume since he has attempted more passes per game than any QB as well, but he has also looked good doing it. While it may be surprising just how productive he has been, it should surprise no one that Cousins is once again rewarding fantasy managers. Cousins finished 2022 as the QB7 overall. He is constantly overlooked and underrated in fantasy circles. Perhaps with what he is doing in 2023 people will start to take him seriously and see the value he provides at the position. If you have him, there’s a chance he is your second QB. If that’s the case and you feel good about your starter I would try to trade Cousins to a team with a struggling QB like Fields or Lawrence and see what you can get in return.
Joshua Dobbs (QB)
*Better completion % than Justin Fields
In reality, Dobbs has a better completion % than several high-profile QBs, but players like Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kirk Cousins are throwing at a much higher rate than Dobbs, whereas Fields’s and Dobbs’s attempts per game are nearly identical. Fields is only attempting two more passes per game and yet Dobbs’s completion % is 72% compared to 58% for Fields. This is not something anyone could’ve or would’ve predicted before the season, especially looking at the weapons for both teams and the natural ability of both QBs. You would expect the statistical data to be flipped. Fields is more athletic, has a better arm, has much more upside, and has a better WR1, WR2, and arguably TE to rely on, and yet Dobbs has been much more productive over the last two weeks. Do I believe Dobbs will finish the season ahead of Fields? No, I do not. I still believe that Fields can turn things around, but that starts with getting Moore additional targets and allowing Fields to play his style by calling more designed runs and getting him out of the pocket. But right now, at this point, there is an argument to be made that Dobbs helps your fantasy team more than Fields does.
Miles Sanders (RB)
*Leads all running backs in targets
This is exactly what everyone predicted, right? Through three weeks Mile Sanders leads all running backs with 20 targets. Not McCaffrey, or Gibbs, or Stevenson, or Pollard. He is also averaging nearly 14 carries a game. With a struggling rookie QB in Bryce Young leading the way, it might be somewhat understandable that Sanders would see his share of targets due to dump offs and passing out of pressure, but while he saw six and five targets in his first two games, when Young got hurt and Andy Dalton drew the start in week three, Sanders saw more targets with nine. This was with WRs Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark seeing a combined 25 targets in that game. Sanders as a pass-catcher is clearly part of the Panthers’ game plan, and while his production has yet to light the fantasy community on fire, with the running back landscape as it is, any player getting this type of usage will continue to have value.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
*Fewer yards per carry than any RB with at least 30 carries
Leading into this season there was some trepidation where Jacobs was concerned. He was unhappy with his situation and as contract disputes and rumors mounted the fear of a holdout became more and more real. But then it was reported that he would start team activities and be ready to go for week one. All of a sudden his ADP skyrocketed and managers were excited to land the 2022 fantasy MVP (at least at the running back position) on their team, but through the first three weeks, Jacobs has been a disappointment, averaging fewer yards per carry (2.4) than any other running back with at least 30 attempts. Perhaps it was unrealistic to expect a player, even one of Jacobs’ caliber, who had missed most of camp and preseason to step on the field and duplicate what he did in 2022, but it’s reasonable to have hoped he could do more with his 15 carries per game than 2.4 yards per attempt. Jacobs is too good to not expect him to right the ship sooner rather than later, but with a QB in Garoppolo who tends not to throw the ball downfield, Jacobs could find it to be tougher sledding in 2023 as he faces more stacked boxes.
Puka Nacua (WR)
*Leads all players in targets
Nacua’s fantasy value may never be higher all season. A popular pre-season pick in dynasty leagues, no one expected much from Nacua in his first NFL season, but through three weeks he leads all players with 42 targets. He also has enjoyed a robust 34.7% target share, but there are reasons for concern, making this the perfect time to try to trade him. I’m not saying that Nacua won’t be able to retain value throughout the season, but after receiving 35 targets through the first two weeks Nacua showed signs of being human, only receiving seven targets in week three. He has also benefited from the absence of Matthew Stafford’s breakfast buddy Cooper Kupp. When Kupp does return (which sounds like it could happen as early as week five) Nacua’s share in this offense will go down, and if Kupp returns to form and demands double-digit targets per game Nacua’s opportunities could crater. If you can package Nacua with another player to get an underperforming wide receiver like Calvin Ridley or Jaylen Waddle I would do that in a heartbeat.
D.J. Moore (WR)
*15 targets through three games
Coming into the 2023 season fantasy managers and pundits everywhere were excited for the potential development of Justin Fields as a passer and what that would mean for Moore. The common sentiment was that the Bears would not go out and trade for a player of Moore’s caliber and not use him, but through three weeks Moore has only seen 15 targets. That is ridiculously low for a true WR1, even for a team that has historically leaned more heavily on the run than the pass. Some of this is due to Fields and the entire Bears offense looking dazed and confused every time they take the field, but for a player that went toward the end of the fourth round in most drafts, you hope for more volume than he’s gotten up to this point. Yet, this might be a good time to buy low on Moore. In the next several weeks he should see softer secondaries leading to more success. I still believe in Moore the player and as long as Fields can just be competent (something we haven’t seen in 2023 yet) he should provide WR2 value moving forward.
Zach Ertz (TE)
*Highest target share among TEs
If someone had asked you who, after three weeks, would lead all tight ends with a 25% target share, I’m not sure Zach Ertz would’ve been the name you guessed, and yet, that’s how things stand. On the one hand, it’s a reasonable development. Behind WR Marquise Brown and RB James Conner there are not a lot of proven weapons on this team, and with journeyman QB Joshua Dobbs leading the way, it makes sense that the TE position would be heavily relied upon. Still, 20 of 82 total targets is a massive share that no one could’ve predicted. That usage hasn’t translated to great fantasy production, but in a TE landscape that gets murky after the top-tier guys, managers could do worse than a guy who is averaging nearly seven targets a game.
Jake Ferguson (TE)
*Most red zone targets among TEs
With players like Kelce, Andrews, and Hockenson out there, I was surprised to learn that it is Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson who leads all TEs in red zone targets with nine. Historically Dak Prescott enjoys throwing to his TE and that has once again proven true, especially in the red zone with half of Ferguson’s targets coming in that area of the field. Touchdowns are always impossible to predict, but once you get beyond the surefire TEs that see enough volume to be weekly set-it-and-forget-it starters, relying on a player who is seeing more targets near the end zone than any other TE is not a bad place to start.
