Last week was not my finest hour. There’s no way to spin it positively. I went 0-5 in my bold predictions! I predicted Russell Wilson would be a top 5 QB. He didn’t even make the top 25. I envisioned Travis Kelce scoring three touchdowns. He only scored one, but he did gain 300,000 followers on social media, so that’s something. I said that Jahmyr Gibbs would score 25 PPR fantasy points. He scored fewer than 10. I was also wrong about Tyler Lockett scoring two touchdowns for the second consecutive week. He only caught three passes for 34 yards. However, none of these were as far off as this predicting the Arizona Cardinals would be held to under 150 total yards against the Dallas Cowboys. They gained 400 yards!! In fairness, I don’t think anyone saw that coming, but it’s still a loss for me and my goal getting at least two of my five predictions right each week.
I’m hoping as we get more data each week, more of these predictions will come to fruition. Regardless, it’s time for another serving of extra spicy bold predictions for this week.
Week 4 Bold NFL Predictions
Justin Fields Keeping it 100
After fantasy finishes of QB-15, QB-20, and QB-24 in the first three weeks, Justin Fields owners are beginning to panic. There was a lot of optimism and even some MVP talk before the season started. Now, however, the Bears appear to be just as bad as they were last season. In times like this, there’s only one cure for what ails Fields and that is the Denver Broncos. Against Miami, the Broncos gave up 350 rushing yards. However, they were a top 10 defense in rushing yards allowed after two games and actually finished in the top 10 last year, as well. But a closer look reveals Denver’s defense ranked 21st in defensive Rush DVOA in 2022, proving that rushing yards allowed only paints part of the picture.
Fields has only rushed for 109 yards in three games. The Chicago offense is struggling, as a result. They’re averaging three and a half fewer points per game compared to last season. I don’t anticipate the Bears falling behind early and having to rely on the passing game. I think the game script, and the Denver defense, presents a golden opportunity for Fields to do what he does best, which is run the ball. I think he will accomplish what he did four times last season and finish this game with at least 100 rushing yards.
Zeke Eats in Dallas
Ezekiel Elliott returns to Dallas to face his former team. Elliott was one of the more popular Cowboys players of the last decade and should receive a nice welcome from from the fans. Although Zeke was been relatively quiet since joining the Patriots, he has started to cut into Rhamondre Stevenson’s workload. Last week, Elliott carried the ball 16 times for a team high 80 yards. He was also in for 80% of short-yardage snaps.
As good as the Dallas defense has been, they are allowing teams to run the ball, giving up 130 rushing yards per game. The 5.3 yards per attempt is third worst in the league and the Cardinals used that to their advantage in their win against the Cowboys. In 2022, the Patriots ran the ball almost 58% of the time on the road. I think they will lean run-heavy when they face Dallas and I expect the trend of Elliott getting the majority of short-yardage snaps to continue. If New England gets close to the end zone, they will feed him. The Cowboys should win this game, but the Patriots will keep it close enough that they don’t have to abandon the run. Zeke will run lead the team in rushing again and score two touchdowns.
Davante Adams Super-Charged
The latest reports say the Raiders are optimistic that Jimmy Garoppolo will play against the Chargers this week. I’m assuming for the purpose of this prediction that Jimmy G will be out there for Las Vegas. The Chargers are giving up the most passing yards in the league, and while the Raiders aren’t necessarily known for airing it out, I’m projecting a significant increase in their passing yards this week. This is very good news for Davante Adams owners, who is already leading the league with a 40% target share. He’s also first in air yards share with almost 51%. Last week, he had 68% of the team’s air yards! It would only take a 300 yard passing day for Garoppolo for Adams to reach 200 yards if he kept that percentage up this week. I think Adams will be the WR1 this week with 200+ receiving yards.
The Dolphins Sink in Buffalo
Fresh off scoring 70 points and gaining 726 yards against the Broncos, the Miami Dolphins head to Buffalo to take on an actual functioning NFL team. The Bills are a bit more than just a functioning NFL team, however. They have the second ranked defense in the league and are first in defensive DVOA. In short, Buffalo’s defense is not a cake walk, unlike the Chargers and Broncos teams that Miami has faced this year. I’m not saying the Dolphins offense isn’t legit, because it definitely is. Even against New England, a top five defense, Miami gained 389 total yards. And last year, in Buffalo, they put up 405 yards! They have an elite offense, so let me be clear on that.
Having said all that, I think Buffalo is going to win this game and I think they’re going to cover the three point spread. Furthermore, I believe this game will go well under the 53.5 Vegas total. While it may not be a straight up defensive battle, I think the Bills will be able to contain the Dolphins offense and hold them to under 20 points.
Danny Dimes Delivers
The New York Giants hosts the Seattle Seahawks Monday night in what the Giants hope is a “get right” game after losing two of their first three. Two of those losses were to powerhouse teams, although the way they lost was not encouraging. This is an opportunity for New York to keep themselves from falling out of playoff contention early, and with Miami awaiting them next week, it’s practically a must win game for the G-Men.
None of this is lost on Daniel Jones. He has had to struggle with an offense that has no clear WR1 and an injured Saquon Barkley. In order to win this game, Jones will need to step up and make things happen. Seattle has the defense to accommodate that. They’re 31st in opponent’s passing yards and have the 29th ranked defense, overall. They’re allowing almost 30 points per game. Andy Dalton was QB-5 for the week against them, if that tells you the state of their defense. I think Daniel Jones will flourish in this game, both through the air and on the ground, and finish as a top 3 QB this week.
