Fantasy Football Advanced Metrics: Red Zone Targets (Tight Ends)

The Top 10

Cameron Brate (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Cameron Brate was even more involved than OJ Howard, corralling eight of his dozen red-zone looks and securing six RZ touchdown grabs, which ranked fourth among all tight ends. While that looks good in perspective, Brate did most of his damage beginning in Week 12, after Howard was placed on IR with an ankle injury. Before that, Howard had out-snapped Brate by roughly a 2-to-1 ratio. Considering Bruce Arians has not utilized tight ends in his offense and has little history of employing ’12’ sets, Brate is in for a significant decline. 

Austin Hooper (Atlanta Falcons) – Atlanta’s banged-up defense probably helped Austin Hooper post-career-best numbers across the board. The Falcons were forced to try to win shootout type of games, which led to Hooper seeing 13 red-zone targets. All four of Hooper’s touchdowns came from inside the 10-yard line during games in which he had 5-plus grabs. He also had five games with fewer than six fantasy points, so despite the impressive red-zone showing, Hooper still isn’t a consistent week-to-week starter. Undoubtedly, he’ll be drafted as one, but fantasy owners should prioritize a strong TE2. 

Jeff Heuerman (Denver Broncos) – Hueurman securing the eighth-most red-zone targets among all NFL tight ends was one of the most surprising nuggets to come from this analysis. That didn’t necessarily help in fantasy last season. Heurerman’s 13 targets tied Autin Hooper for eighth, but Heuerman finished as the TE34 in overall scoring. Heuerman only managed to catch four of those passes and one-third of his season-total scoring came in one game. With No. 20 overall pick Noah Fant now expected to take over as Denver’s starter, Heuerman has zero value in any format. 

Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota Vikings) – Rudolph improved his catch and yardage totals off of a disappointing 2017 campaign but his touchdown totals dipped from eight to four. Two of those four scores came on play-action goal-line looks, so considering the Vikings want to establish the run, we could see some positive regression in that area. The Vikings just re-signed Rudolph to a four-year, $36 million deal, so his starting spot looks secure but don’t discount talented second-round rookie Irv Smith.

Trey Burton (Chicago Bears) – After signing a four-year deal with the Bears, Burton posted career-best numbers across the board and had top-10 overall tight end numbers. Burton’s 78.6% red-zone catch rate led all tight ends and his 11 grabs trailed only “the big three.” Five of his six touchdowns also came inside the 20. Burton is one of the sneakiest top-10 tight ends out there in most fantasy drafts and is usually available well into double-digit rounds of most drafts. 

Jared Cook (New Orleans Saints) – Cook had the best season of his career, topping 100 targets for the first time and finishing the season as the overall TE5. Cook’s success carried over into the red-zone as he caught 10 out of his 15 targets and had more TD grabs than he’d produced in the previous four seasons. While moving to New Orleans looks like a huge upgrade, let’s remember how deflating Ben Watson’s 2018 season was with the Saints. Drew Brees has a lot of mouths to feed and is adept at finding throwing lanes regardless of coverage. Cook looks like a lock to post top-10 fantasy numbers but he’ll have a difficult time repeating last year’s production, even in the Big Easy.

George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) – Only 13.9% of George Kittle’s targets came inside the 20, which was one of the lowest figures charted. When you factor in just how important a role Kittle played in San Fransico’s overall offense, that lowly figure looks like an anomaly. With Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida forming a solid one-two punch to set up play-action opportunities and QB Jimmy Garoppolo healthy, Kittle should play a much bigger role and looks like a good candidate to get closer to 7-9 touchdowns. 

Eric Ebron (Indianapolis Colts) – Don’t overpay for Ebron’s unsustainable touchdown rate. The Colts added Devin Funchess to take some of those red-zone looks and intriguing second-round rookie wideout Parris Campbell has looked like an intriguing weapon throughout the summer. Perhaps the biggest detriment to Ebron’s usage is fellow tight end Jack Doyle, who out-snapped Ebron in all five games in which both players were healthy. Ebron will still play a role in the red zone, but he’s going to be an erratic weekly producer who is more likely to be a TD-or-bust option than a consistent starter. 

Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) – Kelce has improved his target totals in each of his five pro seasons, culminated by an overall TE1 finish in 2019 after posting a 103/1336/10 campaign. Kelce led all tight ends in targets inside the 10 (12/7/32/5) and inside the five (6/4/10/3) and with 17 receptions. Kelce’s 135 RZ receiving yards also tied Eric Ebron for the most in the league. It’s hard to envision Kelce actually improving on what was one of the greatest tight end seasons in NFL history, but he’s still a lock to be the top player at his position in nearly every fantasy football draft that is held outside of the city of Philadelphia. 

Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles) – While we’re talking about Philly, Eagles’ superstar tight end Zach Ertz led his position with 27 red-zone targets and scored seven of his eight touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. Ertz has become QB Carson Wentz‘s go-to target in and around the goal line. Ertz has a whopping 156 targets to lead the position and his 116 receptions were second in the entire NFL, including wide receivers. Ertz has produced eight touchdowns in back-to-back seasons and his heavy usage indicates that he’s a good candidate to approach that total again in 2019.