Do you find yourself drowning in trade offers from other general managers in your fantasy football league? Things are heating up as the trade deadline is quickly approaching and managers are positioning their teams for the fantasy playoffs. This article will shine the spotlight on our Advanced Metrics and highlight two players you should not trade away and one you should trade for.
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Untouchable: Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook is currently the RB2 in PPR formats behind Christian McCaffrey. He’s averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game with seven top-12 finishes while playing only 70 percent of the Vikings offensive snaps. Cook has touched the football or has been targeted on 52 percent of his offensive snaps. Very few running backs, outside of McCaffrey, have that high of a snap share and utilization percentage. Cook leads all running backs in rushing attempts (177) and is tied with David Johnson and Saquon Barkley for the eighth-most targets (41). Did you know that 91.5 percent of his rushing attempts have come when the quarterback is under center? Cook’s seeing seven defenders in the box on 44.1 percent of his rushing attempts. He’s only seeing eight or more defenders on 25 percent of his rushing attempts. The success the Vikings have had throwing the football indirectly benefits Cook and the running game. He’s also very effective with the opportunity share he’s been provided.
NFL leading rusher Dalvin Cook on going against Ezekiel Elliott: “He’s a good back. I’m trying to out-rush him and I know he’s trying to do the same thing. This game is going to be won in the trenches. My offensive line against their def. line and it’s the same thing with him.”
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 6, 2019
Cook ranks fourth with 18.8 expected points per game. Barkley (19), Leonard Fournette (19.9), and McCaffrey (22.2) are the top three in this metric. Cook is averaging 4.6 fantasy points per game more than expected. The only running back with higher fantasy points over expectation is McCaffrey (8.6). Cook ranks second in evaded tackles (59) behind Chris Carson (64). He also ranks second in yards created (379). This metric measures all yards above and beyond what was blocked. Yards created are generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. Cook and McCaffrey are both tied for the most breakaway runs (10). These are rushing attempts of 15 yards or more. Cook is averaging 0.96 fantasy points per opportunity. The Vikings offensive line ranks fifth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.82) and Open Field Yards (1.25) according to Football Outsiders. The Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the length of the run. Open Field Yards are yards in which the team’s running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries. A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards, but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards, but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on it’s running back breaking long runs to make the running game work. The Vikings running game is the perfect blend of both heavily influenced by assistant head coach and offensive adviser Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme. It has been difficult to find reliable running backs this season. Cook is averaging 24.2 opportunities per game and has a very favorable rest of season schedule. The Vikings face the Seahawks, Lions, Chargers, and Packers from Week 13 to 16.
Untouchable: Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb is currently the RB6 in PPR formats. He’s averaging 23.2 opportunities, 120.5 total yards, 19 fantasy points per game, and 0.81 fantasy points per opportunity. Many fantasy players are worried about Chubb’s rest of season outlook due to the return of Kareem Hunt. Chubb has been the only bright spot offensively for the Browns this season. First-year head coach Freddie Kitchens suddenly finds himself on the hot seat in Cleveland. It does not make any sense for him to take opportunities away from Chubb. He’s has a snap share of 77.4 percent and the fifth-highest opportunity share (83%) among running backs this season. Chubb is tied for the fifth most breakaway runs with eight so far this season. He is also ranked ninth in our Juke Rate metric. It isolates a running back’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches.
Working toward Sunday 💪@NickChubb21 | #BUFvsCLE pic.twitter.com/ICQxXE5B6I
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 6, 2019
Chubb and Kareem Hunt can co-exist in the Browns backfield. Given the erratic play of quarterback Baker Mayfield, it would be wise for Cleveland to lean heavily on the running game. Now is also a great time to acquire Chubb in a trade from a panicking general manager. The Browns have a favorable schedule for running backs during the fantasy playoffs with games against the Bengals, Cardinals, and Ravens.
Trade For: David Montgomery
David Montgomery has played 73 of the Bears offensive snaps over the last two games. He’s averaged 25 opportunities per game. Montgomery’s accumulated 223 total yards and three touchdowns. The Bears offense has looked serviceable when they’ve based it around the rookie running back. Montgomery ranks 15th in Juke Rate among running backs and is averaging 0.73 fantasy points per opportunity for the season.
In a competent offense, David Montgomery is going to EAT. Dude is so good. #Bears
— Aaron Leming (@AaronLemingNFL) November 3, 2019
The Bears finally have continuity on the offensive line and it has had a positive effect on the running game. Montgomery is averaging 1.5 fantasy points per game more than expected over the last two games. It’s not a coincidence that with some of these changes that he’s finished in the top-12 at the running back position in two consecutive weeks. Montgomery and the Bears have a very favorable schedule for the rest of the season beginning with the Lions this week. From Week 11 to 16 Chicago has matchups against the Giants, Lions, Packers, and Chiefs. It would wise to acquire Montgomery before your league’s trade deadline.
Quick Hits
- A.J. Brown currently ranks 12th with 2.7 yards per pass route. He’s accumulated 60 receiving yards or more in two out of three of the Titans last three games. Brown has a great rapport with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and is on the precipice of taking his game to the next level.
- Cole Beasley is currently ranked ninth in target separation (1.98). He has the trust of quarterback Josh Allen and will be leaned on even more in the near future considering the cornerbacks John Brown will be facing.
- Alex Erickson is tied for the eighth-highest 17.8% Hog Rate and has a snap Share of 41.4 percent. The Hog rate metric captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. It helps to identify wide receivers and with limited route trees that may have a low snap count and target share, but when they are on the field, they are a focal point of the passing offense. A.J. Green’s setback will keep the door open for Erickson to contribute even more especially with Ryan Finley under center.
Conclusion
FantasyData has a wealth of statistical information available to you at your fingertips. Do you ever wonder how to weave all of the information together in order to make informed decisions for your fantasy football team? That’s the purpose behind the Advanced Metrics series that Jody Smith and I are writing this season. One way to approach any decision in fantasy football is to analyze two things. The first one revolves around the narrative. What are NFL Insiders, beat writers, and coaches saying. The second one revolves around the statistics, metrics, and other data. Take a moment to think of a piano. You can play music with one hand, but once you use both hands the music is even better. You should have the same mindset when it comes to managing your fantasy football team.
Please read my Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em column to help get ready for Week 10. If you have additional questions you can also refer to my fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
