DraftKings NFL Picks Week 10
Initial Thoughts
Before starting any research, besides glancing at the MATCH-UP CHART HERE, this appears to be a slate with a lot to cover. Lot’s of players in good spots, and there appears to be something to like in every game. This might be the first week this year I try going 20+ line-ups to get a piece of everything. With so much to like, there shouldn’t be too many high owned plays. Looking forward to diving in and doing this research to get a firmer grasp on this slate.
Review
“Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of the time of writing. Here is a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year
When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.
Process
The process I use for this article and for selecting my player pool starts with the data I collect and chart. The match-up chart and individual match-ups are the first layers of the onion. Once we have that peeled we should have a sizable player pool to work with. The next step is to reconcile that data. I use the Google sheet above to reconcile the match-up chart by looking at what the opposing teams did to allow those numbers. Who did they face to get there? What were the game environments like? I try to watch as many games as I can, but I can’t watch them all, so I do a lot of reading from my Beat Writer list to keep up with injuries, changes to the way the team is playing, and look for other general trends to consider. Using Fantasy Data’s resources helps get a snapshot on a team and player level for the offenses to see what type of numbers they are putting up. Then, it’s about identifying what the top plays are for the slate, and how heavily they will be owned. This is where we need to have some pivots in our back pocket, and if necessary some punts if we want to jam in a bunch of elite plays and have to look for a value guy to put up 10 or more points. Game theory, contest selection, and roster construction are the final challenges as we try to put it all together. This where we win or lose.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Let’s get after it…
Detroit Lions (19.5/+2.5) at Chicago Bears (22.0/-2.5) [41.5]
Matthew Stafford ($6400) continues to push the ball deep this season resulting in a league-leading 312 yards passing per game, and he is leading our Deep Ball Passing Metrics in Total Attempts and Distance per Attempt. He also leads in Air Yards per Game and Air Yards Per Attempt. Stafford is always a high upside play on any slate but going to Soldier Field with a new back injury is concerning. A derivative of Stafford’s deep ball passing places his top 2 outside receivers inside the top 10 in Air Yards per game with 59 apiece. Both Kenny Golladay ($7000) and Marvin Jones ($6200) are averaging over 17 DK points per game and will face off against a defense that plays stationary corners, so they will get to dictate the match-ups. Kenny Golladay has a hometown narrative in play, for what that’s worth, but with both guys playing so close in production and with Jones seeming to see more opportunity as of late we could play either guy based on the salary constraints of the build. Of course stacking both with Stafford would be the best way to capture the upside, however, Danny Amendola ($4700) was on a solid run for a couple of games before last week, so he is another one to include in the player pool for this week. The Lions running game is hard to like against the Bears although the Bears allow a high percentage of their targets against to go toward the RBs making JD McKissick ($4300) somewhat interesting as a value/punt play. Trubisky at QB makes the Lions DST ($2900) a viable mid-price option this week.
The Bears offense is a disaster right now which makes it hard to trust anything involving their passing game. Luckily, this game sets up well for David Montgomery ($5300) who is priced too low for a home match-up against the worst defense against running-backs in points allowed. He’ll likely be chalky due to this misprice. He’s the only piece of this offense we should be considering. Allen Robinson ($6300) has seen his production erode with Trubisky’s downward spiral and is likely to see Darius Slay in coverage. He’s only an option for MME and contrarian builds.
Baltimore Ravens (27.25/-10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (16.75/+10.5) [44]
The simple take on this game is to look at what the Ravens do best and what the Bengals are among the worst at defending. Both point to the running game for the Ravens. The Bengals have had an extra week to prepare for this juggernaut run game Greg Roman has created but they don’t have the players to stop it. Lamar Jackson ($7300) is running the ball like a running back and should capture a good amount of his fantasy points on the ground, but can still beat a defense for a couple of touchdown throws. Mark Ingram ($7100) is priced for his TD equity more than his opportunity share. It’s not ideal to pay into the $7k range for 15 carries and only a couple of targets, but if we look at this through the lens of the Ravens week one match-up against Miami, we’re now paying an extra $2k for the idea Ingram will score multiple TDs here. As good as this match-up looks on paper, It’s going to be hard to pull the trigger on Ingram unless building multiple line-ups because of how multiple this rushing attack is. Jackson and Edwards are threats to Ingram’s touchdown output and without the targets to support his less than bell-cow rushing workload, the probability of Ingram paying off his price is limited. Cincy has not been tested much through the air (only 47% of the plays they’ve faced) so rostering the passing game when strength versus weakness flows tot he running game is a contrarian way to approach this. Mark Andrews ($5200) comes in a bit too high in price to be a core play but he did score 14.9 DK points against the Bengals in week 6. The Ravens DST ($4000) against a rookie QB looks great on paper as long as they fit into your budget.
The Ravens defense has been getting better as the year has gone on. Their weakest link is Brandon Carr in the slot, which is where Tyler Boyd ($4700) lines up. Unfortunately for Boyd, AJ Green has been ruled out so he will be followed around by Marlon Humphrey again and is not in play.
Buffalo Bills (18.5/+1.5) at Cleveland Browns (21.5/-1.5) [40]
The path of least resistance for fantasy points against the Browns has been running-backs and tight-ends. Unfortunately, these are not slam-dunk options through the Bills offense. Devin Singletary ($5000) looks like he may have taken over the lead back role as of last week. Reading through beat reports doesn’t indicate this is a solidified role, and may have been more opponent specific – Washington is stronger up the middle and Singletary was used to win on the edges – and given Singletary was having success, they rode the hot hand. The Browns defensive interior is graded lower against the run (per PFF grading) which means we could see Frank Gore ($4000) vulture some opportunity away from Singletary. The Browns see a fairly low amount of targets sent out to the RBs against them, even with their top corners back in the fold. Still, Singletary’s price tag keeps him in play but he may see elevated ownership here from box-score chasers. Outside of Singletary, the opportunity is too limited through the passing game and the Browns have a good secondary so playing any pieces from here is more contrarian/MME type plays. Cole Beasley ($4100) has the best “on-paper” match-up against Carrie in the slot, but it should be noted that Isaiah McKenzie ($3000) played 27 slot snaps last week compared to Beasley’s 22, so he might be a deep punt option here. The Bills DST ($2900) is a reasonable option against a struggling offense.
The only semi-reliable play from the Browns offense this year has been Nick Chubb ($7000). He faces a defense that has given up 108 rushing yards to old man Adrian Peterson last week and a combined 170 rushing yards to Howard and Sanders the week before. The Bills signed Corey Liuget this week in recognition of this weakness, but Chubb is still a good play this week, even with Hunt looming. I’m not touching the Browns passing game until something changes there. If you’re MME’ing, then feel free to mix them in.
Atlanta Falcons (18.5/+14) at New Orleans Saints (32.5/-14) [51]
Last time we saw the Saints Drew Brees ($6700) was making his return to the lineup and threw for 373 yards against a hapless Cardinals pass defense. In his only two healthy games this year Brees has attempted 43 passes in both. In Brees’s last 4 games against the Falcons, he attempted only 33.5 passes per game (High = 49, Low = 22 – both from last year). The Falcons are easier to beat through the air as the Falcons are allowing opposing QBs a 177 passer rating, second only to the team the Saints just beat (Arizona). If Atlanta can keep pace in this game, then we should see the Saints continue to keep the foot on the gas, which will likely be how they start the game and would result in Brees throwing closer to 40 times. If Atlanta completely craps the bed then Brees will only throw those 33.5 passes he’s averaged in the last 4 games of this series. When Brees throws, he only throws to 3 guys. Michael Thomas ($8300) is his clear favorite an possibly the most unguardable receiver in the league. Thomas leads the league in target percentage, receptions, and yards – and there are some teams/receivers who haven’t had their bye week yet. Thomas is 3rd in our Hog Rate metric and second in true catch rate. If Brees throws 40 times and Thomas gets his typical 32.5% target share, then he’ll see 13 targets and likely catch 10 or more of them, making him an elite play in that scenario. Even at the low end of 33 passes, he’ll see around 11 of them. The next guy we should look for, as always with the Falcons, is the pass-catching RB of the opposing team. Alvin Kamara ($8200) will be ready to go in this one and is the next best, if not equal play to Thomas for this match-up, and is second only behind CMC for top plays at RB for the slate. In Kamara’s 5 healthy games this year he was seeing 21% of the team’s targets, including 18.6% in his only game that he and Drew Brees completed together. Using the 40/33 pass attempt parameters he could see 7 or 8 targets here unless they decide to go after the Falcons poor RB coverage and bump him up to 10. The third wheel of this offense has been Jared Cook ($4100), who has seen a decent amount of targets but failed to get anything going until the two weeks before he got hurt where he scored 14.1 and 12.7 DK points. Those numbers are probably his ceiling in this game as well. With Tre’Quan back it’s hard to know how much he’ll take away from Ginn’s limited role making both risky plays but also MME punt options in case one of them hit a big play.
New York Giants (23.75/-3) at New York Jets (20.75/+3) [44.5]
In what amounts to a home game for both these teams in Met Life Stadium we get to see two young QBs trying to find their footing and a former employer narrative (Leonard Williams) play out. The advantage in this game should fall to the Giants offense, but Daniel Jones ($5700) continues to find ways to keep the other team in the game by giving the ball away 7 times over the last 3 games. What will help for the Giants is the massive injury list the Jets are posting. The Jets have 13 guys either listed as didn’t practice or limited practice and sent Trumaine Johnson to IR ahead of that. The Giants are a bit banged up on offense themselves with Sterling Shepard likely out with lingering concussion symptoms and Evan Engram already ruled out. What this does is gives us a clear picture as to what the best plays are for the Giants this week. The Jets are pretty stingy against the run, but Saquon Barkley ($8800) should see a ton of touches one way or another. Golden Tate ($5900) should see a ton of targets as well. However, a guy I’m bit excited about in this match-up is Darius Slayton ($4200) against Roberts and the rest of the outside corners. Darryl Roberts is allowing a whopping 14 points per game to receivers in his coverage. Slayton has yet to receive heavy targets but at $4200 he’s worth the gamble in a few builds.
Similar to the Jets, the Giants are bad in coverage and this should give Sam Darnold ($5800) a chance to get things going…if only he wasn’t on an Adam Gase team. Gase is going to slow the tempo to protect his defense and have Sam checking down with his 6.2 YPA. Darnold is playing a lot like Trubisky this year, yet for some reason, DK thinks he should be $700 more expensive than Mitch. There is a chance he could have a good game year, but it will be relative to his prior performances an not a slate-breaking score. Robby Anderson ($4700) let a lot of people down last week, including myself who rostered him on my only two builds of last week. He’ll be hard for people to trust in this spot which should create an opportunity for him to bounce back at low ownership. Jamison Crowder ($5000) seems to be the guy Darnold looks for the most, so he should have a fairly high floor. The last two teams to face the Giants have targeted their slot receiver 8 times apiece. Le’Veon Bell ($6900) is a risky option this year. He could see 5-9 targets to boost his floor but he offers very little in the run game behind the Jets offensive line.
Arizona Cardinals (24.0/+4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.5/-4.5) [51]
Tampa is most vulnerable through the air and the Cardinals have a couple of backs they can throw target in the passing game to avoid having to run the ball. David Johnson ($5700) has been priced way down this week. Johnson makes some sense here as we look at what some other backs have done to Tampa through the air: Week 6 McCaffrey had 12.6 DK points, Week 5 Kamara had 10.4 points, and Week 4 Gurley had 12.4 points. Gurley also scored two rushing TDs that game. So, while the Tampa run defense may scare some folks away from rostering a RB against them, there are paths for a RB to score a solid amount of points here. Carson ran for 105 yards last week against them, which further indicates we do not have to be scared off of DJ, especially at that price. The thing that would scare me off is if there is a reason to believe Kenyan Drake ($5500) will cut into DJ’s production. Two roles that DJ has secured will be passing game work and goal-line work, making him valuable enough to use if you’re scratching for some salary relief at RB. Christian Kirk ($5200) came back from injury two weeks ago and saw 11 and 5 targets in the 2 games upon his return, both totals led the Cardinals in those games. He’s the #1 WR in this offense and has mainly run routes out of the slot until last week against the Niners. Hard to know if he’s going to play mostly on the outside going forward but it won’t matter much for this week against the Bucs abysmal pass defense. Pairing Kirk with Kyler Murray ($6500) and running it back with a Tampa receiver looks like a strong start to a roster construction his week. Given that these are the two worst teams in the league against tight-ends, I’d be remiss if I didn’t throw Charles Clay ($2900) out as a risky punt option.
This game has the other implied total over 50 points and the way the two defenses allow yards and points through the air has to have us on the passing attacks from both sides. Jameis Winston ($6800) went up to Seattle and limited his turnovers to one lost fumble. If he’s able to keep possession, then he has a shot at being the top-scoring QB on the slate (so does Murray). Stacking the Bucs pass-catchers with Winston is going to be expensive as Mike Evans ($7600) and Chris Godwin ($7400) come in as the third and fifth most expensive WRs on the slate. OJ Howard ($3300) intrigues me here given the match-up against the worst defense against the TE. He’s hasn’t been used as the receiving threat he should be and there’s no indication it will change this week, but Arians and Leftwich need to take advantage of this match-up to get him some production. He’s worth a shot on a couple or few rosters this week if you’re building several.
Kansas City Chiefs (27.5/-6.5) at Tennessee Titans (21.0/+6.5) [48.5]
Some people are going to look at the raw numbers for points allowed to RBs by the Chiefs and want to roster Derrick Henry ($6400), and some people (who played Cook last week) are going to have a recency bias and avoid playing a RB against this defense. The Titans best opportunity to stay in this game will be to use their imposing OL and Henry to control clock which could lead to a solid game from Henry that could be really good should he punch in a couple of TDs. Henry is the top play from this offense, but if game-script works against him he’ll be dust. The Titans passing attack has improved with Ryan Tannehill ($5100) taking over and at his price, he is an interesting punt. If the Chiefs get out to a quick lead and force the Titans to throw to stay in the game then Tanny should be able to easily pay off that low price. It’s hard to trust any of his receivers individually, so if you play him you’ll want to look for better receiving options and don’t stack with him. However, keep an eye on Corey Davis’s ($4400) status, because if he misses, then AJ Brown ($4300) does have some punt appeal.
Miami Dolphins (16.25/+11.5) at Indianapolis Colts (27.75/-11.5) [44]
The Dolphins offense doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Colts defense. With Preston Williams out, the best bet for a contrarian play here would be with Devante Parker ($4800), but it’s hard to find imagine him putting up a high enough score to use him other than for salary savings.
Marlon Mack ($7000) is in a smash spot this week and DK priced him up for it. The Dolphins are the third most generous defense to RBs on the slate and if Brissett misses (or even if he plays) Reich’s opponent specific game plans should lead him to run Mack at this front seven quite often. Mack seems to be capped at a 3 target max, so we’re going to need the 100-yard bonus and at least one TD for him to pay off his price tag this week. He should be good for it, but if he looks like he’s going to be mega-chalk, it might be wise to lower your ownership percentage on him a bit. Pivot over to some passing game pieces like Zach Pascal ($5300) who is the de facto #1 WR. Or take a long shot on squeaky wheel Eric Ebron ($3900) even though he is still being priced like he’s been producing, which he has not.
Carolina Panthers (21.0/+5) at Green Bay Packers (26.0/-5) [47]
The Panthers have been weaker against the run this year than past seasons and will face a pretty strong one-two combo of Aaron Jones ($7400) and Jamaal Williams ($5200). Williams has caught a TD in 4 straight games and has averaged 16.2 DK points over his last 3 making him a nice value play. Jones only has 3 TDs over his last 4 games but has had some monster games this year. Either guy is in play an needs to be in multi-entry pools. Davante Adams ($6900) saw 11 targets in his return last week. His price dropped from $7100 on the road versus the Chargers to $6900 at home against the Panthers. It’s not a drastic price cut, but interesting nonetheless. Adams at a sub-$7k price is something we haven’t seen this year and I will take advantage of this misprice, regardless of the perceived tough match-up against the Panthers secondary. Chris Godwin (twice) and DJ Chark have been able to overcome this match-up and post great scores. Godwin runs more from the slot than Adams does, but Adams still has a 20% slot rate which would be wise of LeFleur to increase this week to allow him the mismatch of going against Cockrell there. Aaron Rodgers ($6600) is always capable of a big game, but with this one set up as a better spot for the run, he may not reach the level we would want from a $6.6k QB here.
Los Angeles Rams (24.0/-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (20.0/+4) [44]
The Rams are coming off of their bye week to face a tough and aggressive defense in Pittsburgh. They will also be down a WR with Cooks rehabbing from a concussion. That narrows down their top play-makers to Cooper Kupp ($7300), Robert Woods ($5600), and Todd Gurley ($6100). Gerald Everett ($4500) makes for a reasonable play as well. Kupp should be the top play from this offense this week though. McVay will scheme up ways to get Kupp matched against the Steelers linebackers and safeties enough times to get him some easy targets. This is where he will have Everett and Gurley getting matchups as well, which makes all three of them viable. Gurley is a tougher buy with how well the Steelers play the run, but a few extra targets and a couple of TD plunges as we saw from him against Tampa will more than pay his lowest price tag of the season. The Rams DST ($3000) against Rudolph could be a solid play as well.
Aaron Donald has a hometown narrative on defense for the Rams and should bring his usual disruptiveness upfront making it challenging for Mason Rudolph ($4900) to find time in the pocket or for Jaylen Samuels ($6300) to find room to run. Jalen Ramsey has not spent much time in the slot this year but could be asked to shadow JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5800) this week, who lines up primarily in the slot. Samuels is the best bet among the Steelers offensive piece just due to the role he should have. Conner and Snell will miss another week all but securing a majority share of snaps and opportunities for Samuels. Vance McDonald ($3800) at TE is another piece that could beat the Rams coverage, as they tend to funnel targets away from the corners and into the TE spot. FRIDAY UPDATE: Ramon Foster has been ruled out on the Steelers offensive line putting a small dent into Samuels’s value. Also, JuJu popped up on the injury report with a foot injury, which is what slowed him down earlier this year. He’s an avoid for me with that foot.
Final Thoughts
After working through each game it seems like we’ll see the usual suspects at RB reflecting high ownership while the rest of the positions should be fairly spread out. There isn’t a ton to punt with, which is fine since they tend to be lower probability plays anyway, but there does appear to be some value on this slate to work with and create several solid builds. The field will likely be into stacking heavy from the Falcons/Saints and Cards/Bucs games, so find some differentiation pieces if you’re going to stack those games and realize that the pieces you find from the other games are likely what you competitors have landed on as well, so look for some interesting pivots for those builds. Good luck this week, and as always, thanks for reading!
