Aggressive Fantasy Draft Strategy: Cutting The Fat From Your Draft Board

Avoiding Potential Fantasy Football Headaches in 2020

Sure, Antonio Gibson sounds like a spicy pick in the 8th round of your co-worker league. After all, he’s a pass-catching back with 4.4 speed playing for a coach who compared him to Christian McCaffrey. But a quick look at the depth chart for the Washington Football Team will reveal that maybe Gibson isn’t a very good pick after all. As great of an athlete as Gibson is, the rookie is set to compete for touches in a backfield that features living legend Adrian Peterson, 2019 fourth-round pick Bryce Love, former Buccaneers starter Peyton Barber, and receiving back J.D McKissic. With so many mouths to feed, this backfield is virtually untouchable this season, as there’s no way of knowing who the lead back is and what type of volume that player might even see. Unless you’re inclined to draft five running backs from a team that ranked second to last in the league in total offense last season, it may be best to avoid all of these players. While Washington’s backfield is a particularly egregious case of a toxic position group for fantasy football, there are quite a few others that you should avoid at all costs in redraft leagues. 

Bears QBs

Quarterback controversies are fun storylines. The narrative of two players duking it out for one role — in this case, the most important role in sports — will always make for great drama. However, in fantasy football, we don’t want drama; we want consistency. With Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles pitted against each other in a battle that will likely drag on for the entire season there will likely be multiple benchings and promotions in 2020. To have any stock in this situation would simply be unwise, as the Bears offense is already a rather low-ceiling one for QB outputs regardless of who the starter is. While Chicago is currently projected to have the second-most favorable schedule for QBs this season, it’s hard to say which of these two players will be the beneficiary of this potential exploitation. Both Foles and Trubisky are QB3 types on their best days, so it’s best to completely avoid these guys at all costs, though in SuperFlex leagues, stashing one of them could give your team a decent trade chip down the line. 

Chargers QBs

Regardless of who the starting quarterback is, the Chargers offense will almost certainly be pretty friendly for fantasy. With Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams in the fold, both Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor could have relatively high ceilings for fantasy. Unfortunately, timeshares at the position are often too unreliable to depend on in 1QB formats. Though Taylor is set to start this season, the investment made in Herbert as a top-ten pick suggests that he will be under center as soon as he’s ready. Unless you can lock down both players without sacrificing too much elsewhere, it may be a very bad idea to draft a Chargers QB this season, despite the potential dividends in the short term. 

Patriots RBs

With Sony Michel and Lamar Miller on the PUP list, clarity is hard to come by for this congested backfield. To make matters even more difficult here, we are talking about the New England Patriots, a team that operates in the most mysterious ways imaginable. One has to think that the team will move on from one or more of Michel, Miller, Damien Harris, or Rex Burkhead, all of whom will be competing for the lead back role in the offense. While James White is entrenched as the passing down back once more, even his workload could be cut into by a player such as J.J Taylor, a pint-sized undrafted free agent whose skill set has drawn comparisons to former Patriots back Dion Lewis. Simply put, there are far too many mouths to feed in this offense, which will be operating without Tom Brady for the first time in nearly twenty years. With so much uncertainty regarding the touch distribution, scheme adjustments, and health of guys like Miller and Michel, it’s simply not worth chasing any of the Patriots running backs this season. 

Seahawks RBs

Chris Carson has always been a dependable three-down back. For some reason, the Seahawks do not believe this to be true. Though Carson has rushed for over 1,100 yards in each of the past two seasons, Seattle felt the need to sign veteran plodder Carlos Hyde and draft DeeJay Dallas in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft. With 2018 first-round pick Rashaad Penny also on the roster, as well as 2019 draft pick Travis Homer, the Seahawks backfield has the potential to get extremely messy this season. Judging from the investment in Dallas, it seems as though the organization views the former Miami star as a capable rotation back at the minimum. As for Hyde, he’s coming off of a 1,000 yard rushing season with the Texans and looks to have plenty left in the tank. Once Penny returns to full health, he too will likely cut into Carson’s touches, leaving Seattle’s backfield in RBBC purgatory. Unless the team moves on from Hyde or Penny, this backfield is a complete no-no for fantasy. 

Eagles WRs

Philadelphia has proven that it is indeed possible to somehow overcrowd a receiving core with players who will also be ineffective. As of right now, the team is scheduled to sort through a group of pass-catchers that includes rookie first-rounder Jalen Reagor, 2019 second-round pick J.J Arcega-Whiteside, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery (if he returns from his foot injury), Greg Ward, John Hightower, and Quez Watkins. It’s entirely possible that the leading receiver from that group sees the fourth-highest target share on the team behind Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Miles Sanders, limiting the upside of that player. While Reagor and Jackson should have the best chance to assert themselves as the WR1 from this group, both receivers are rather one-dimensional deep threats at this stage in their respective careers, so counting on one of them to pace this offense is an iffy proposition. This is yet another case of a team having too many mouths to feed, though it is amplified by the fact that most of the candidates could easily prove to be ineffective even with a high snap share.

Jaguars WRs

As a rookie Gardner Minshew II was spectacular and his performance allowed D.J Chark and Dede Westbrook to establish themselves as the unquestioned WR1 and WR2 from this group. However, if we look a bit closer at Minshew’s rookie campaign, it’s evident that he benefitted tremendously from the play-action heavy offense used by former OC Jon DeFilippo. The rookie completed 71.6% of his attempts off of play-action, though his overall completion percentage was far less impressive (60.6%). These numbers tell me that Minshew did a lot of his dirty work on plays where the box was stacked to prevent RB Leonard Fournette from tearing through the middle, as Fournette saw a stacked box on 32.1% of his carries, the highest percentage of any back who saw 200+ carries. As defenses adjust to defend Minshew rather than allowing him to work them over in single coverage, his receivers will surely see a dip in their overall production. The addition of rookie Laviska Shenault only complicates things, as the former Colorado standout was seen as a first-round talent, and his integration into the offense could significantly cut into the target shares for both Chark and Westbrook. Though there’s a lot to like here, it’d be advisable to let someone else depend on this group of receivers.  

Washington TEs

I’ll keep this section short and sweet. You don’t want to be starting Logan Thomas or Jeremy Sprinkle or Thaddeus Moss as your tight end this season. If you’re scrolling through the tight end list in your draft room and see WAS next to a name then you’ve gone too far. It’s honestly impressive that a team could let their tight end room become so devoid of talent and experience—classic oversight from the Football Team. 

Buccaneers TEs

O.J Howard was nowhere to be found last season and now the Buccanneers tight end depth chart includes Rob Gronkowski on it. On an offense that already features Chris Godwin and Mike Evans as well as a third tight end who could start for half of the teams in the league (Cameron Brate), this position group could serve as a one-way ticket to frown town for anyone that decides to chase the Tampa Bay stack. We haven’t even mentioned the fact that Rob Gronkowski seems to suffer a potentially career-ending injury every other season. Though Tom Brady has shown love for tight ends in the past, the presence of Evans and Godwin could detract from his affinity for the position.