It’s your fantasy draft day, you are a couple of rounds in, and it is your turn to pick. You are looking at your roster and realize you need a wide receiver. So you turn your focus to a wide receiver. You look at the board and see Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods as a few of your highest options, who do you pick? Both wide receivers are set for an uptick in production with Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley leaving the Los Angeles Rams. That’s 73 receptions and 1,583 yards vacant on the Los Angeles Rams offense for 2020. The Rams didn’t do much to replace this production as they decided to stick with veteran Josh Reynolds and drafted rookie, Cam Akers, for their backfield to pair with second-year player Darrell Henderson Jr. The ceiling could be very high for both Kupp and Woods who are being drafted extremely close to each other with their ADP’s(Average Draft Position/ADP is broken down below).
Let’s break them down and help you decide who should win this coin toss.
Cooper Kupp
Pros
Cooper Kupp has a knack for finding the end zone. Last year he had 10 touchdowns, and he finished last year with five straight games with a touchdown. He is one of Jared Goff’s favorite targets down in the red zone but here’s what he brings to the table:
- In the final five weeks of the season he was back in the top 10 WR’s in fantasy after an abysmal week 6-12(read below).*he finished 4th overall at years end.
- He averages a TD every 9.3 catches over his first 3 years in the league.
- He was 4th in league with touchdowns from the slot. He ran 305 routes and score 5 touchdowns from this position. The only players above him are Tyler Lockett(6), Marquise Brown(6), and Mecole Hardman(6).
Cons
Kupp, albeit an amazing player, does have his downfalls. One of those downfalls is he has a higher ADP. He comes in right now during drafts at 41st overall. This means you may have to reach to get him if your picking around his ADP. Kupp also has a couple more knocks against his name, for example:
- He had an up and down season for someone who finished WR 4 last year. This will make it harder to rely on him from week to week, especially at the beginning of the year when we are seeing if Sean Mcvay transfers over to more 12 personnel (two tight ends).
- Drafting a more volatile player will force your hand to be more cautious later in rounds with your sleepers when deeper in your rounds you should be aiming for the upside players.
- He had only five finishes in the top 40 WR from week 6-12. This is not something you are looking for from any player attached to his high of an ADP.
- There are concerns about his snap profile within this offense. Last year the Rams switched to a heavy 12 personnel towards the end of the year. This led to the breakout of tight end Tyler Higbee
- Can’t play an outside receiver role in this offense, as he is not built to be that type of wide receiver on the field.
Robert Woods
Pros
Robert Woods comes with the lower ADP out of the two players which is better for roster construction. His ADP is 43rd overall, even though that’s close to Kupp’s ADP his ability to slip into the end of the 4th, the beginning of the 5th round allows for the possibility of building a stronger core of players drafted in front of him.
He also has the safer floor of the two, which allows you to swing for the fences with a more explosive player in the earlier rounds, like Tyreek Hill. Woods also brings a lot more to the table, so let’s break down some stats on this Rams receiver:
- PPR Machine: At age 28, Robert Woods is coming off his second consecutive 1,000 yard season with the Rams. In 2018, he had 86 receptions, and in 2019 he had 90 on 139 targets.
- Most slot receiving yards per route in 2019: ranks third with a 2.6 only behind Michael Thomas(3.4) and Mecole Hardman (2.7).
- 8th most targeted WR in the league last season.
- Sean Mcvay designs play to get him open; for example, he puts Woods in pre-snap motion/ Jet Sweeps. This helps him avoid press coverage (only faced it on 12% of his routes.
- Without Cooks, he will be the top outside receiver.
- Weeks 10-17, had only one finished OUTSIDE of the top 24 WR with 11.4 targets per game in that stretch.
Cons
Like all players, Woods also has some downside. However, he has a safer floor than Kupp. Let’s break down the flaws in Wood’s game:
- Woods isn’t great against the press coverage(60.5 % success rate).
- He didn’t score a lot of touchdowns last season. He ended the season with only two touchdowns.
- He must compete in the red zone he with Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds Gerald Everett, Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown
- Week 1-8, he had one finish inside the top 24 WR. However, when the offensive philosophy changed(as we wrote above), this changed with it.
What is the tie-breaking stat?
Play Action Pass
Robert Woods had the third most receiving yard on play-action passes since 2017. The only receivers who beat him were Julio Jones(1,312) and Brandin Cooks(1,274).
Now that Brandin Cooks is gone, Robert Woods could gain even more yards within this system. This is a system that the Los Angelos Rams like to use a lot in their gameplay. The Rams play-action percentage of 31.7 percent is tops in the league over the last three years.
Coin Toss Result: Robert Woods
When drafting your fantasy team this year, Robert Woods provides you with a safer floor while also giving you the ability to have a high ceiling. Wood’s will be on the field regardless of the personnel, his coach schemes to get him open he will be used consistently.
