A.J. Dillon Fantasy 2022
Breakouts are one of the greatest aspects of fantasy football. Sure, having a player on your squad that has proven their worth year over year is fine. But being among the initial group of fantasy managers to own a player in their first year of truly elite production is a feeling that can’t be beaten. With so many possible breakouts being debated over the course of the offseason, it may be best to focus on one at a time to avoid information overload.
In this article, we’ll be going over a running back that has been making a name for himself by trucking minor league baseball mascots and who many have pegged as a possible breakout for 2022. Some refer to him as Quadzilla or the Quadfather, but today we’ll just refer to him as A.J. Dillon of the Green Bay Packers.
A.J. Dillon’s Career Recap
A.J. Dillon had an uneventful rookie season. He only made it on the field for 16 percent of the Packers’ snaps while receiving just under 50 total opportunities in 2020. Due to that lack of involvement, Dillon was not a player that many were talking about heading into the 2021 season. While his tree trunk legs were popular on Twitter, he was recognized as a nice handcuff due to the departure of Jamaal Williams. But what people didn’t know was that there was more to Dillon than just being an insurance policy for Aaron Jones.
On paper, his 2021 statistical totals looked solid. His rushing numbers racked up to 187 carries, 803 rushing yards, and five touchdowns. In addition to his ground game, he made a surprising impact in the receiving game as he finished with 34 receptions, 313 yards, and two receiving touchdowns. That combination of production made Dillon the RB21 on the season.
However, all of his production wasn’t evenly distributed. A.J. Dillon had a major tale of two halves during the 2021 season.
A.J. started out the season looking like the player that many were expecting to see. Through the first nine weeks, he only had a 33.5 percent snap share, averaged 7.4 PPG, and ranked as the RB42 in fantasy. While he had a couple of solid outings here and there, the majority of his early performances didn’t move the needle much for fantasy purposes.
Then once Aaron Jones started to get hobbled as the season moved along, A.J. Dillon was able to truly show what he was capable of. From weeks 10-17, Dillon took off. His snap percentage went up to 51.7 percent, his PPG was 14.8, and he ranked as the RB9 during that stretch.
Even when Aaron Jones returned in Week 12, A.J. Dillon maintained his usage as he received 70.9 percent of the Packers’ red zone opportunities and out-carried Jones 65 to 48.
So while Jones’ end-of-season ranking (RB13) topped Dillon, A.J.’s usage was a strong sign of possible change for this Green Bay backfield in 2022.
A Change in Team Identity?
The Packers are going through some significant changes on offense in 2022. Sure, they still have their back-to-back MVP, Aaron Rodgers. But they’ll be missing Rodgers’ go-to option in Davante Adams because he forced his way out to find greener pastures in the Las Vegas desert. Without Adams, the Packers are left with a receiving corps that is largely unproven and their best offensive weapons being a running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay is expected to boast one of the more feared defensive units in football this season.
Btw, Packers base defense on Day 1:
OLB
Rashan Gary
Preston SmithDL
Kenny Clark
Dean Lowry
Jarran ReedILB
De’Vondre Campbell
Quay WalkerCB
Jaire Alexander
Eric StokesS
Adrian Amos
Darnell Savage Jr.Rasul Douglas later came in for Walker.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) July 27, 2022
With a slew of talent and depth at every position while playing in one of the least welcoming climates in the NFL, the Packers should be shutting down opposing offenses for the majority of the season.
Now, you might be asking yourself, what does the defense have to do with a change in the Green Bay offense? To put it simply, if you have a great defense that can shut down opposing offenses, you don’t have to pass the ball nearly as often because you’ll be ahead and in positive game scripts. In the Packers’ case, this development would result in more touches for their backfield duo.
If that game plan is implemented, then a lot of the weight would be taken off of Rodgers’ shoulders. He won’t have to win games on his own, the talented backfield tandem will keep the clock moving, and the defense will slow opposing offenses with their stacked unit.
What Can We Expect For Dillon in 2022?
A more active backfield is most likely on the way for Green Bay, but with two strong options, could a committee cap A.J. Dillon’s production? Well, it certainly would but only to a point. I think there is a decent chance that Jones and Dillon excel through their involvement in different aspects of this offense.
Jones is currently Aaron Rodgers’ most tenured receiving option so he could be seeing receiver-like usage while also taking on a piece of the rushing totals.
As for Dillon, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take and even expand upon the rushing work he had down the stretch of last season. As mentioned earlier, Dillon took on the majority of the rushing load and handled 70.9 percent of the running back red zone opportunities after Jones returned to the lineup. With that kind of usage, Dillon could have a hold on most of the rushing opportunities while also handling touchdowns as the Packers’ go-to red zone back.
A.J. Dillon is currently ranked as the RB23 on FantasyData, behind running backs like Antonio Gibson and Josh Jacobs. That may be the safest spot to rank him prior to the start of the 2022 season due to Aaron Jones still having a major role in this offense. But with the possibility of his usage improving, I’d be more than happy to take a shot on Dillon at that price.
If you want to check out more on A.J. Dillon and other player outlooks, take a look at the FantasyData player forecasts page to prepare for your 2022 season.
