Why You Should Draft Cooks over Fuller in 2020
Using FantasyData’s Draft Kit 2020 and employing a value-based drafting approach is generally a successful strategy for compiling a playoff-contending fantasy roster. Of course, you need to differentiate your rosters and take some risks if you want to build a dominant championship squad, but knowing how to balance the risk/reward with the proverbial upside can make all the difference when the fantasy postseason rolls around.
The new-look Houston Texans offense gives us a great case to study this season, as newly-acquired Brandin Cooks and contract-year holdover Will Fuller will compete to be the Texans’ new No. 1 wideout in the wake of the baffling trade of DeAndre Hopkins. Both of these veteran wide receivers come with plenty of risks and neither is capable of replacing Hopkins alone. The question then is, which of these players should I target in the seventh round of my fantasy draft?
The Great Debate
From a pure data standpoint, the choice is quite easy for me but there was quite a bit of positive and negative sentiment when I first posted my thoughts on Twitter, which also led to a debate on the On The Clock Podcast.
Looking at the responses, there were definitely two camps- people that recognized Cooks as the safer option, and boom-or-bust drafters who think Fuller is finally ready to stay healthy and live up to that massive ceiling that he seems to display once or twice each season.
And there lies the beauty of this great hobby- so many different approaches and strategies to all come to the same final result, which is to win as many leagues as possible. I’m here to tell you that the way to do that the best way to do that in this crazy 2020 season is to not swing for the fences in the seventh round and take the safer bet, and that is Brandin Cooks.
Consistency
Both Cooks and Fuller are 26, with Cooks being six months older than Fuller, so there’s not a significant age difference. Cooks was a first-round selection by New Orleans in 2014, which gives him two more pro seasons than Fuller, who was nabbed by the Texans with the No. 21 pick in 2016.
Even though Cooks will now be suiting up for his fourth pro team, he’s been far more consistent. Cooks has already racked up four 1000-yard receiving campaigns and topped 114 targets in four consecutive seasons. Fuller, meanwhile, has a career-best 92 looks as a rookie and has yet to top 670 yards. While Cooks has had the advantage of playing with solid quarterbacks throughout his career, Fuller has had the luxury of playing with Deshaun Watson for three.
Fuller also had the luxury of playing a secondary role behind one of the league’s best receivers and will now be expected to take on more of an alpha role now that Hopkins is in Arizona. That and those huge one-game outings Fuller occasionally has are the main cogs in the hype. But looking at each wideouts’ skill set, who is more likely to emerge in that Hopkins role?
Versatility
This is an area that might actually favor Fuller. While he does most of his damage from the perimeter as one of the league’s premier deep threats, Fuller spends plenty of his snaps in the slot. In 2019, 26.9% of Fuller’s snaps came inside, which was a 20% increase over the 21.7% slot rate he posted in 2018. Meanwhile, Cooks’ slot snap rates (16.8% in 2018 and 23.3%) were lower. Houston head coach Bill O’Brien likes to move his receivers all over the field and will undoubtedly stick with that approach once again in 2020.
However, O’Brien also signed Randall Cobb to take the vast majority of the inside snaps for Houston. Cobb has logged 86.4% of his snaps out of the slot in each of the past two seasons, so that means Fuller’s role will mostly remain unchanged, while Cooks will have the added challenge of learning yet another offense- though his role won’t be much different than the one he played in New England, where Cooks posted WR15 numbers in PPR scoring.
O’Brien also loves to rely on his ground game to take play-action shots downfield. With Fuller and Cooks taking most of those snaps from the perimeter, it will come down to which player consistently draws lesser coverage in man-to-man situations.
FantasyData’s Metrics
Using FantasyData’s Advanced Metrics, Cooks outperformed Fuller versus man coverage in 2019, despite it being a season in which he battled injuries and an inconsistent Rams’ offense.
VS Man Coverage (2019)
- Bandin Cooks- 10 Receptions on 22 Targets for 174 yards and 1 TD
- Will Fuller- 8 Receptions on 15 Targets for 164 yards and 1 TD
Surprisingly, Cooks was also slightly better in air yards per reception, finishing 27th in the NFL with a 10.2 average versus Fuller’s 9.2 (37th). Fuller was better in terms of overall fantasy points per target (1.89 to 1.63 for Cooks) and also snagged 5-of-7 red-zone targets compared to 4-of-5 for Cooks. Cooks was also better at reeling in passes last season, finishing 15th in the NFL with an 87.5% True Catch Rate, compared to Fuller’s 84.5% showing, which was 20th.
Cooks also had fewer drops (4) on more targets and was quietly better in contested catch situations, where he reeled in 6-of-11 targets versus Fuller’s 7-of-13. While it’s good to look back at the most recent season to compare players, taking a bigger picture view actually favors Cooks even more.
When looking at the data from 2016-2019, which is the timeframe in which both player’s careers intersect, Cooks has been much more consistent and a better overall choice to be targeted as a fantasy WR2 or WR3 in season-long formats.
In those four years, Cooks has posted double-digit PPR scores in 68% of his games. Fuller, meanwhile, has topped 10 fantasy points just 38% of the time over the same stretch. It’s hard to consistently win if you’re utilizing a valuable starting slot on a wideout who scores single-digit points in nearly two-thirds of his starts, especially in PPR leagues. Just last year, 40% of Fuller’s total fantasy points came in one game, while he scored single-digit points in 7-of-11 starts.
Injury Concerns
Both Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller come with injury woes baked into their ADP. Cooks has been plagued by concussions and could be one hit away from a career-ending injury. Meanwhile, Fuller has bulked up lower-body muscle this offseason in an effort to avoid soft-tissue injuries that have derailed him each season. Generally, adding weight has not resulted in favorable outcomes, particularly for a player, like Fuller, who relies on speed and separation ability.
Cooks’ concussion history is certainly a concern, especially the more we learn about the brutal effects of CTE injuries. But despite the risk, Cooks has only missed two games in the past five seasons. Fuller, meanwhile, has missed 22 contests during his four-year career. In fact, Fuller has yet to miss fewer than two games in any one season and has missed time with shoulder, knee (torn ACL), and numerous hamstring ailments.
In fact, according to SportsInjuryPredictor.com, Fuller has a whopping 97% chance at getting injured in 2020, and is predicted to miss 5.2 games. Those are the second-highest rates among all NFL wide receivers. Cooks is only predicted to miss 0.1 games, with a low 13% chance of suffering an injury.
Conclusion
Decide what kind of approach you want to take in 2020. If you’re willing to take chances for upside and have already secured a strong receiving corps by the time the seventh round rolls around, you might want to consider Will Fuller’s significant week-to-week upside.
But for most of us, the seventh is far too early to start gambling when a safer and more consistent player from the same team happens to be on the board. While snagging players like Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, and Jamison Crowder isn’t risky, math dictates that they are generally the right call over a 15 or 16-week season.
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