Fantasy Football RB Ready to Ascend
It’s been one of the most unpredictable years ever but there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon as we labor through a quiet summer. That glimmer is the upcoming NFL season, which means that fantasy football is right around the corner and we’ve reached what might be the best part of the calendar: draft season.
Like every other year, fantasy football enthusiasts spend a lot of time and effort preparing to assemble their championship-quality teams, and researching sleepers and values is one of the most popular strategies to achieve that goal. Knowing which mid-to-late round players have a chance to exceed their current ADP is one of the best ways to assemble the deepest roster and increase your odds of winning it all.
Here are some of those running backs that are being overlooked and might be the best bets to break out in 2020.
Kareem Hunt (Cleveland Browns)
ADP RB27 – Hunt actually broke out as a rookie back in 2017 but flashed some of that elite ability last year in Cleveland and could be ready to contend with top-15 fantasy numbers even with the presence of Nick Chubb. Hunt was suspended to open the 2019 campaign but looked like his old self in Cleveland’s final nine contests. During that stretch, Hunt took over as the main pass-catching back while also averaging over four yards per carry. But looking at FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiencency Metrics, Hunt may be a real threat to take some significant touches away from Chubb.
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Hunt finished fourth among all running backs with an outstanding 1.15 fantasy points per opportunity figure and also ranked fourth in breakaway run rate. He snagged multiple receptions in each of the Browns’ final eight games and racked up 44 targets during that stretch, which came at Chubb’s expense. With new head coach Kevin Stefanski in town and ready to establish a dominant ground game with Chubb and Hunt each playing significant roles, Hunt offers top-15 potential in PPR formats and would be a top-5 fantasy back if Chubb were to go down.
Ronald Jones (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
ADP RB29 –As soon as the Buccaneers selected dynasty-favorite Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Jones became the forgotten man in the Tampa backfield, despite being the veteran incumbent in an outstanding offense now led by QB Tom Brady. Between a stint on the COVID list and struggles in pass protection, Vaughn’s odds of contributing as a rookie are dwindling while Jones’ stock is back on the rise.
Bruce Arians has already anointed Jones as Tampa’s main runner after a solid sophomore season which saw him take over as the lead dog down the stretch. Jones scored four touchdowns from Weeks 9-16 and put up a solid six scores despite receiving zero carries from inside the 2-yard line. Now that Jones has bulked up to 225 pounds and made improvements as a receiver and protector, he’s got a solid chance of approaching 275-300 touches, with double-digit TD upside in a potent Tampa Bay offense.
Matt Breida (Miami Dolphins)
ADP RB35 – The Dolphins will almost certainly employ a two-man rotation with Breida and Jordan Howard, but Breida offers way more big-play ability and is more better as a pass-catcher. Per FantasyData’s Advanced Running Back Metrics, Breida finished ahead of Howard in yards created (216-157), breakaway runs, and was far more efficient as a receiver. With the Dolphins having one of the lowest over/under totals in the NFL and potentially employing a rookie signal-caller, Miami will be passing often and that come-from-behind approach favors Breida.
Breida isn’t just another one-dimensional third-down back. He’s averaged over five yards per carry in each of the past two NFL seasons and routinely broken off big-gainers. Early indications out of Miami are that Breida could receive 35%-plus percent of Miami’s totes in addition to 4-5 targets per game. Miami’s receiving corps has been hit hard by the pandemic, so it’s also feasible that Breida could see snaps out of the slot, with Howard in the backfield. 200-plus touches could easily be in the cards for Matt Breida in 2020, which makes him an excellent value and breakout fantasy candidate.
Damien Harris (New England Patriots)
ADP RB53 –Traditionally, having the Patriots’ starting running back has been a lucrative proposition- at least from a touchdown standpoint. Under Tom Brady, New England almost always finished near the top of the rushing score standings. But now that Brady is in Florida, we’re going to see an entirely new Patriots offense, presumably run by newly-signed Cam Newton. Newton himself is as likely as anybody to lead this squad in rushing touchdowns, but predicting who will lead the team in rushes is more difficult.
Sony Michel has been lackluster, is a poor receiver, and is currently on the PUP list with a foot injury that has been slow to heal. Satellite back James White has a locked-in role as the main pass-catcher but has only surpassed double-digit carries once in New England’s last 22 games. Rex Burkhead can do a little of everything but only played 23% of the team’s snaps last season and seems better suited in a part-time situational role. Maybe second-year former Alabama star Damien Harris has the right blend of size, speed, and receiving ability to emerge as the team’s main back in Week One. Harris has been plenty of run with the starters in camp, while Michel and newly-signed free agent Lamar Miller are sidelined. If Harris, who is currently going undrafted in many fantasy leagues, can continue to make the most of his opportunities in August, he’s got the chance to rekindle some of that magic he displayed at Alabama, where he posted consecutive 100-yard seasons and warranted a 2019 third-round selection from one Bill Belichick.
Bryce Love (Washington Football Team)
ADP RB55 – Derrius Guice has most likely seen his last NFL snap, which means there are plenty of snaps available for the new-look Washington Football Team. New head coach Ron Rivera believes in feeding his feature back, which is now expected to be 35-year-old Adrian Peterson. But considering his age and lack of pass-catching prowess, Rivera is going to have to move away from that three-down idealogy and mix in other, younger options.
Rookie Antonio Gibson is garnering all the hype and acclaim but Gibson had only 33 carries in two seasons at Memphis and has, predictably, really struggled in pass protection in camp. Second-year pro Bryce Love looked like a potential NFL star at Stanford before injuries derailed his final season and forced him to miss his rookie NFL campaign. But all indications are that Love is fully healthy and has been making a positive impression while pushing Peterson for first and second-down carries. Love also displayed decent hands in college and could even open the season as the preferred third-down back if Gibson isn’t ready. With almost no hype at all before the release of Guice, Love is going undrafted in the vast majority of fantasy leagues but could easily earn a double-digit weekly touch role, particularly if Peterson, who has over 3,300 career touches, shows his age.
