Fantasy Breakdown: Is Todd Gurley Fools Gold in 2020?

Todd Gurley Fantasy 2020

Todd Gurley has no doubt helped plenty of people win Fantasy Championships the past few years. Unfortunately, even though he has moved on from LA and has a “fresh” start, he still has a chronic knee issue, and it appears Gurley’s best days are behind him.  Gurley was let go by the Rams this past off-season and has since signed a one-year deal with the Falcons to try and anchor their running back corps.  Last year was Gurley’s worst rushing output of his career, running for just 857 yards on 223 carries for an average of 3.8 YPC, which ranked 19th among running backs.  What kept him relevant and in lineups was the fact he finished with 14 total touchdowns good for fifth-best among the running back position, but touchdowns are too risky to rely on week in and week out.  One oversight that plagues Fantasy Owners is box score surfing, simply looking at the results of a player’s season as a whole instead of looking into the actual numbers each week.  In the 15 games Gurley played last season, he had eight games of 15 or fewer fantasy points, of which six totaled11 points or less.  We can break the numbers down even further to see just how inconsistent he was throughout the year, looking at it from a weekly basis using the table below.

For starters, he failed to rush for 100 yards in any game last year and had seven games of 50 or less rushing yards. In 2018 he had six games with 100 rushing yards or more, including one over 200 and had just three games where he accumulated 50 or less rushing yards.  His highest yardage accumulation was 97 yards in 2019, which he did on two occasions week one against Carolina and week eleven against Chicago.  He had 20 or more rushing attempts just three times and carried the ball 15 or fewer times in nine games, as opposed to 2018 where he had just five games of 15 or fewer attempts and six games of 20 or more carries.  Given his lackluster rushing totals, most Gurley defenders will point to his touchdown total of 14.  Which on paper looks great, after all, that’s almost one a game but we can uncover inconsistencies when you look at the weekly game logs.  We find that he had five games where he didn’t find pay dirt at all and four games where he scored multiple times.  If you had Gurley last year, you were playing him, but there were some weeks where it was painful.  The Rams were feeding him the ball once they got in close as all his scoring production came from inside the 20, particularly once they were inside the five yard-line, which is where most of his damage was done, scoring nine total touchdowns.   

Conversely, if we look at the Falcons team stats from inside the five, Qadree Ollison led the team with four and Brian Hill, Ito Smith, and Matt Ryan each scored once for a total of seven.  If we back it out to the 20 yard-line we will find that the Falcons mostly went to the air with Austin Hooper (6), Julio Jones (5), Calvin Ridley (4), and Davonta Freeman leading the way for the running backs catching four for a total of 19.  The Falcons were not nearly as dependent on the run inside the red zone as the Rams were.  Hooper is no longer in the mix, but Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are arguably as good a receiving duo in the league, so there’s no reason to think the formula changes at this point. Most of Gurley’s value last year was dependent on touches inside the five, which I don’t think he will see this year mostly because that’s not how the Falcons offense operates.  When they get into the red zone, they put the ball in Matt Ryan’s hands and let him air it out.

There’s also the fact of Gurley getting up to speed with a new offensive system.  It’s hard enough to pick up a new playbook during a regular off-season, nevermind a COVID shortened one.  Physically we know there are limitations, but mentally getting to know the offense is a whole different hurdle to get past.  His ADP currently is 23.9 RB15, which means he is being drafted as a fringe RB1 in most league formats.  With the running back position appearing to be as thin as ever this season, Gurley’s ADP is too high to take a chance on given all the question marks surrounding his health and usage.  There are plenty of other running backs being drafted after him that should be considered before taking the plunge with Gurley.  James Conner 25.7, Chris Carson 28.5, David Johnson 31.5, or even Raheem Mostert 51.7 are all players that should be considered.  There are rumors out of Falcons camp that he’s been seen with a noticeable limp already, and the real work hasn’t even begun.  There are specific player’s that get flagged with “DO NOT DRAFT” before every season, and as much as it pains me to say it, Todd Gurley is on that list this year. Todd Gurley was once Fantasy gold, but those days have passed.