Fantasy Football Buy Low Sell High: Week 8
Well, folks, we made it to Week 8 of the 2021 NFL Season. Weeks 1-7 showcased a lot of important factors to consider for your fantasy team. It’s been a dreadful and confusing past couple of weeks for a ton of players. On the other hand, some players rode the first four weeks to perhaps the peak of their fantasy point season. SO MANY INJURIES. A lot of teams are barely holding on after injuries to JJ Watt (The Cardinals can survive, I have faith), Antonio Brown, Miles Sanders, and Darren Waller. Now, be sure to exercise caution. Don’t make knee-jerk reactions. Alright, it’s been 6 weeks, time to win. Although your team might have started not so great, your players might be primed for bounce-back weeks. The last thing you would want is to sell players who score a ton after you trade them. Additionally, you might have guys who scored a ton so far but don’t have the circumstances week-in and week-out to continue that high scoring (Cordarrelle). Whether your team has been beset by injuries or is the picture of health, you should always be trying to improve your team. It’s time to make the beginning push towards your championship.
This week only sees two teams on Bye: the Raiders and Ravens. The combination of 2 teams on BYE and all the injuries have decimated so many teams. Let’s survive the Bye-tragedies together and make some trades to get a win this week, and throughout the rest of the season.
Now, it’s always helpful to have people give you some advice on players that should only rise in value or have hit their peak. As such, that’s why I’m here. I’m here to help guide you through the fantasy football season and decide who you should go try to trade for or trade away. So that way you can keep on winning and hopefully win a championship. Right now, you’re still assessing your team. Thus, you don’t want to react too quickly to veteran players who have had a rough start to the season. If they keep struggling past this week, it might be time to make some team-changing moves. That doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of other people who want to get rid of them. Just FYI, the scoring is for PPR unless otherwise noted. FYI, all the stats come from our very own FantasyData. Here’s my opinion on who you should Buy Low/Sell High:
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Buy Low
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team, Running Back
Yes, Gibby has been banged up and dealing with a shin issue. However, he’s been able to play every game, and there are better fortunes ahead for the WFT offense. Not only should Fitzpatrick come back sooner than later, if they play him, but the schedule gets much better. They face the Seahawks, Raiders, Panthers, Cowboys, and Eagles still. Those are defenses that can be run on rather easily. We all saw what Kenny Gainwell and Leonard Fournette did against some of these defenses. You should have no worries about Gibson’s performance against them. If you can get him now, realize that he has two tough matchups with the Broncos and Buccaneers and a bye. After that, it’s clear sailing. He’s getting 54% of the snaps which isn’t great, but again, he’s got the potential to take it to the endzone on any play. What’s happy is that he is getting a 47% touch rate which means he’s getting his hands on the ball a ton. Yes, he’s not getting a bunch of targets, but he is getting the red-zone rushes. That’s where running backs make their fantasy money! With 14 red-zone rushes, he’s going to get even more as the season goes on, which means more touchdowns. Don’t be scared of the Gibson, if you can get him for cheap, like for Herbert and Moss, or MG3, DO IT RIGHT NOW.
Darrel Henderson, Los Angeles Rams, Running Back
Hendo has been a revelation for fantasy players and the Rams this year. He’s exceeded everyone’s expectations. He struggled unexpectedly against the Lions, but that’s potentially because he wasn’t needed and the game script wasn’t favorable. The Lions surprisingly kept it close the first three quarters or so which meant the Rams needed to keep passing. Regardless, Hendo still got 18/20 rushes and dominated the playing time, as per usual. He’s averaging 81% snaps per game and hardly leaves the field. He’s had 5 out of his 6 games with over 15 PPR points. That’s a beautiful floor. Henderson’s averaging 4.3 ypr and is the #14 overall RB in terms of fantasy points. Now he faces the Texans, who are awful against the run, and well everything else. Plus, he still has to face the Titans, 49ers, Packers, Jags, Cardinals, and Vikings. The Rams are playing for the #1 seed in the NFC. They will be ahead a bunch, which means Hendo’s going to get to run the ball a ton. That’s evident as he has at least 13 rushing attempts every game this year. Look to trade Aaron Jones, or any of the RB10-15 range for Henderson, as I have a feeling he outperforms them all.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders, Tight End
Fortify the Wall! Waller the Baller hasn’t been balling much lately, or has he? Well, he’s not balling to the degree that he established he could last year. Of course, last year the Raiders had no wide receivers, and this year they do. Yet, the bigger worry was that he missed last week with an injury and is on bye this week. If a team is in a must-win game this week, make an offer for Waller. He’s playing on 89% of snaps and has a QB that loves him in Derek Carr. Don’t forget how in Week 1, he targeted Waller roughly 18 times or so which is insane. Waller has gotten 53 targets. He’s 6th in TE receptions with 33 and in PPR ppg with 13.8. Additionally, the fantasy gold is getting touchdowns. The best spot to do that is in the red zone. Therefore, the more red-zone targets a player gets, the more chance of a touchdown. Well, he already has 9 such targets, 5 receptions, and 2 TDs. Those numbers will grow as the Raiders play for the playoffs! He has a terrific 20.6% target share which is tops on the team. Plus, he’s a downfield threat as he has 6 receptions of 20+ yards. Did I mention his schedule is easy? He’s going to play the Giants, Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys, WFT, and Colts. Go get some Waller the Baller before he balls all over your team.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons, Wide Receiver
Alert, this is your last chance to buy-low on Calvin Ridley! He’s about to blow up and rise in price. You can buy him as a WR3 and watch him become your WR2. Yes, he’s that cheap. People see the Falcons, and his “low” point totals and think Ridley is a ghost in the fantasy world now. Only, he’s not. He’s the #1 WR for a pass-heavy team that will be forced to pass a ton due to game script. Already, he’s gotten 52 targets and has had 10+ targets in all but one game. The targets are there, he’s going to catch them. The yards will come with the more he catches. Not to mention, with Patterson, Pitts, and others raising their play, teams can’t just funnel their defense to preventing Ridley. Do you want players who get targets in the red zone? Well, Ridley’s one of them as he’s gotten 22 targets there. He’s caught 12 of those targets and will catch more soon. His price is rising as people come to realize that he’s healthy (87% snap share), the alpha on the offense, and has an easy schedule coming up. He faces the Panthers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Bucs, 49ers, and Lions. Talk about a cake-walk schedule. The Falcons are fighting for the playoffs surprisingly, and Ridley’s going to be a huge part of that. Go get him before the time is up!
Other Buy-Low Targets: George Kittle (Coming back from injury), DJ Moore (QB play can only go up), Brandin Cooks (Tyrod Taylor back @QB)
Sell High
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears, Running Back
Herbert’s time as the RB1 in Chi-Town is almost up. David Montgomery should be back after their bye-week. When that happens, you can kiss Herbert’s fantasy relevance goodbye unless Montgomery gets hurt again. Don’t forget how non-existent Herbert was before David’s injury. He was basically only a punt-returner and special teams player. That’s not helpful in fantasy. Now, yes he should be the backup running back going forward, but that doesn’t mean much in the horrendous Bears’ offense. He’s a great dynasty player to hold, but in redraft, not so much. While he’s averaging 4.8 yards per rush, he’s not getting enough due to the tremendous negative game-script for running backs in Matt Nagy’s sad offense. The Bears look like they would rather be knitting sweaters than playing. They’re falling behind early and often. This means that they have to pass the ball even more, but the o-line isn’t able to block, and Fields can’t stop turning the ball over. Herbert’s 41% snap share is going to go down. Don’t get caught holding the sunk cost. Sell him for Moss, Darrell Williams, or even Gaskin. SELL HIM NOW.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Wide Receiver
Mike Evans is the “WR1” for the Bucs offense. Of course, that depends on how Brady’s feeling. Any one of the WRs or Gronk could be the preferred target for Brady at any time. Due to that, Evans is going to blow up and sink at random times. Last week he exploded for three touchdowns, which isn’t something you can rely on. Perhaps he did so well because the team was missing Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski due to injuries. When those two return, Evans’ snaps, targets, and yards are going to dwindle. We saw at the beginning of the season how much Gronk and AB were being targeted. Don’t disregard their impact. Evans is just too high-low for me. He’s the WR7 overall in PPR, but this week is a horrible matchup. He faces the Saints, but more importantly, he faces Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore has consistently locked Evans down. Plus, Gronk should be back. Mike’s been a good red zone presence with 12 targets and 5 touchdowns, but with Gronk coming back, those numbers should decrease. His 13.4 yards per reception leave plenty to be desired too. One last thing, he’s top-10 in targets among WRs, but his target share on his team is only 19.7%. That’s the lowest by multiple percentage points when compared to any of the other top-10 targeted WRs. Go trade Evans for Diggs or someone of that caliber right now!
CJ Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals, Tight End
Look, yes, he’s been a wonderful feel-good story as he has blossomed since returning from a torn Achilles. However, he’s not reliable. He’s only gotten above 3 receptions once this year, which isn’t good for even tight ends. In fact, last week’s massive game was done on only 3 catches. 3 catches. He’s not a speedy WR that can average 30 yards per reception. Despite that, he’s had 5 touchdowns over the last four weeks. Yet, he’s barely had any red-zone targets as all his TDs have been scored on busted coverages. Granted, defenses are determined to stop the Bengals trio of WRs, but you can’t be hoping for a busted coverage to occur so you can win your week. That’s a recipe to lose. His 19 targets on the season showcase how he’s the #5 option in the offense. I don’t want the #5 option when I could be getting more reliability from a position you desperately need consistency at. He’s been great so far, but count me out on the roller coaster. He still has to play the Steelers, Browns, Raiders, Ravens, and others. If you can trade Uzomah for Ertz, Higbee, or Henry do it. Push how he’s the TE11 overall right now in PPR.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos, Wide Receiver
I love Sutton and think he’s a great receiver. Yet, I’m not a fan of this Denver offense. It’s too messy and doesn’t know what it wants to be. Do they want to feed Fant and be reliant on the run game? Are they a deep-ball offense? Who knows? Now, Jerry Jeudy is coming back from injury and should take over as the top WR in this Broncos offense. While this should open more routes for Sutton, his targets will go down. Jeudy is a target-hog due to his spectacular route running whereas Sutton is a deep-ball threat. Despite being a deep threat, his 14.2 ypr leaves a lot to be desired. Perhaps it will rise as he can now run deeper routes thanks to Jerry being back. But, don’t forget that this offense is crowded too. They have to feed Tim Patrick, Jeudy, Fant, Javonte Williams, and MG3 besides Sutton. Teddy’s a fine QB, but he’s not one that’s going to be able to throw the ball all over the field. Yes, the team will be behind a bunch. However, they can’t rely on the pass to catch up. One final thought, Sutton’s got 9 red-zone targets, but only 2 TDs. That’s not the kind of stats you’re looking for. His schedule only gets harder too as he faces the WFT, Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers, and Raiders. The Broncos are preparing their team for the QB of the future, whenever that is. Sell Sutton for any of the WR2/3s out there. If you can get Ridley for him, DO IT. Stop reading this article, go trade Sutton now!
Other Sell-High Targets: Tua Tagovailoa (QB trade, Miami discord), Dalton Schultz (Michael Gallup coming back), Christian Kirk (too many mouths, TD-reliant)
As always, I’m more than happy to talk on Twitter and Discord. Let me know your thoughts on these players if you managed to trade for/away from them. If you need thoughts on any trade, my DMs are open 18/7. I respond to everyone. Hope you win your week this week. Let’s have a successful fantasy football season this year. We are about to be two weeks into our Championship winning season! Let’s go win Week 5!
Of course,
May the Force be with You…
