Dallas Cowboys first team to ever lose to #7 seed in playoffs in Packers
This past Sunday the Dallas Cowboys saw their promising season crumble in stunning fashion. After earning the No. 2 the Cowboys welcomed the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers to town and were outmatched the entire game. Although the final score was a more respectable 48-32, Dallas trailed 48-16 early in the fourth quarter. Jordan Love & Co. was able to pick apart the Cowboys’ top-5 ranked defensive unit constantly finding holes, getting open, and creating chunk plays. Love threw for 272 yards, three touchdowns (each to a different player), and zero interceptions. Aaron Jones added three touchdowns of his own and the defense even got in on the action when safety Darnell Savage returned an interception 64 yards for a touchdown. It was a surprising outcome and a disappointing showing from a team that many had high hopes for going into the playoffs. While nothing can be taken away from the Green Bay Packers (they played excellent) it is a reality that the outcome of this game will lead to many questions and possible changes for the Cowboys organization. No one knows exactly what Jerry Jones might do after seeing his team go down in such epic fashion, but I can’t imagine that much is off the table as Jones tries to find a way to fix what appeared broken. Below are, in my opinion, five of the most possible changes we could see.
#1. Fire head coach Mike McCarthy
When the Cowboys hired McCarthy the hope was it would take the Super Bowl fortunes of the team. Yes, Super Bowl, not just playoffs. In McCarthy, they were getting a head coach with a Super Bowl pedigree having won a championship in 2010 with the Green Bay Packers. But 2010 was a long time ago and in a league that tends toward the “What have you done for me lately” mentality, coaches (and players for that matter) can coast on their past successes for only so long. To be fair to McCarthy it’s not like he hasn’t had any success as the head coach of the Cowboys. Dallas has reached the playoffs in three straight seasons, going 12-5 each season, with two division titles. He also enjoys the second most wins (36) during that span, behind only the Chiefs. But with “Super Bowl or bust” expectations that may not be enough to save his job. Jerry Jones has to at least entertain the idea of finding someone new who could inject fresh life into the team. He has to ask himself “Can we ultimately get where we want to go with McCarthy?” Some would argue that McCarthy and the system he runs is too old school to be any more than simply competitive in today’s NFL. They may say it lacks creativity, explosiveness, and is too antiquated for a league whose entire identity is changing every single year. As the league becomes more and more pass-heavy and fast-paced, the old-school, hard-nosed style of football that used to win championships can’t keep up with some of the teams who have adapted to the new style of play. McCarthy is not a bad coach and he had a solid season, but the playoffs are such a huge stage and when you are the head coach of a team that simply did not look ready to play you’re going to be on the hot seat and questions are going to be asked about your future with the organization.
#2. Hire Bill Belichick or Mike Vrabel
If Jerry Jones does decide to move on from McCarthy this offseason then that means he’ll be looking for someone to replace him. Who he chooses will rely on several factors, chief among them is will the new head coach fit the culture and have the requisite tools to convince Jones he can lead this team to a championship. Out of the likely candidates, I think Belichick and Vrabel would be the most attractive to Jones. Some analysts or experts may throw Jim Harbaugh in here as well but I think that’s unlikely. He will have any number of suitors and if he does jump ship and head back to the NFL, I don’t think the Cowboys are at the top of his list. That leaves me with Belichick and Vrabel, with Belichick slightly higher. After the Patriots and Belichick decided to part ways some speculated that the 71-year-old coach may retire, but that does not appear to be the case. While teams like the Falcons and Chargers have expressed an interest in him I can’t imagine Jones wouldn’t take a look if he is in the market for a new head coach. With a team that is capable of winning now, Jones will not want to take a wait-and-see approach on a young, exciting new coach. He’ll want a coach that can win now. No candidate has Belichick’s history of winning and bringing him in would make sense for a team that doesn’t have any glaring holes to fill on either side of the ball. For Belichick, I would imagine the Cowboys would be an intriguing option. Both the Falcons and the Chargers are likely a couple of seasons (at least) away from a deep playoff run, let alone being able to compete for a championship. Going to a team that has all the tools to win it all would be enticing for a coach who would love to get back to his winning ways.
If they pass on Belichick then Vrabel could be another solid option. Few moves in this year were as shocking as the Titans’ decision to let go of Mike Vrabel. Tennessee consistently overachieved under Vrabel and even reached the conference championship in 2019 and the No. 1 seed in the AFC in 2021. With only two losing seasons under the talented coach, it surprised everyone when he was relieved of his duties. Vrabel is a defensive-minded head coach, and after what we saw from the Cowboys against the Packers that may be just what they need. Tennessee has also had just two seasons ranking in the bottom half of the league in scoring average. What makes Vrabel’s success all that more impressive is that he did all this without the presence of a quarterback that anyone would call elite or even close to elite. He never had a franchise quarterback with whom to work. Ryan Tannehill resurrected his career in Tennessee but is not a top-tier quarterback. Vrabel will be heavily pursued as a head-coaching option this offseason, but combining his coaching style with the Cowboys’ dynamic roster could force Jones to throw his hat in the ring.
#3. Fire defensive coordinator Dan Quinn
So this one could end up being a bit of a cheat because it may take care of itself. There are reports that Dan Quinn is in the running for several head coaching jobs and could start interviewing as early as this week. Still, if he doesn’t land any of these gigs he could find himself without a job after an embarrassing showing against the Green Bay Packers. If I’m being honest, Quinn is a very talented defensive coordinator and it’s hard to imagine firing him after one bad game, even if that game was the most important game of the season. Quinn did lead a top-5 defensive unit throughout the 2023 season. The fact that they chose not to show up in the playoffs is troubling but likely doesn’t speak to any ability on Quinn’s part. But if Jerry Jones does decide to reset with a new head coach then it stands to reason that the new coach would have a say in staffing the other coaching positions, which would include defensive coordinator. Every owner and general manager would love a championship, but few seem as hungry for one as Jones is, and it would not be beneath him to make rash, impulsive decisions if he believed it was going to improve this team and put them in the best position to win now. After seeing how poorly his defense played in the playoffs Jones may not believe that Quinn is the best man to continue leading this squad. I still think it’s more likely that the Cowboys lose Quinn due to him landing a head coaching job somewhere, but after such a lopsided loss for a team that seems to be able to make it to the playoffs consistently but not do much once they’re there I would expect every option to be on the table. If Quinn is let go, the interest he is already generating suggests he will have no trouble landing on his feet, but it’s a pretty disappointing way to end his time in Dallas.
#4. Give up the win-now mentality and instead plan for the future
From everything we know about Jones this one seems a bit unlikely, but Jones will have to ask himself why have the Cowboys been unable to get over the playoff hump. If he concludes that certain pieces are good, but not championship good, then he might try to get out from under them and reset the clock. Chief among these would be Dak Prescott. Prescott (who will turn 31 years old this summer) is signed through 2024. If Jones were to decide that he is not the type of quarterback he can win a championship with then trading him wouldn’t be completely off the table, but it’s likely that due to the salary-cap hit, including dead money, trading him would be too expensive of an option for Jones. It would be much easier, and financially feasible, to see him become a free agent in 2025 ahead of his 32nd birthday and allow him to sign somewhere else. Prescott has had some great moments as a Cowboy and has managed to lead them to the playoffs five times in eight seasons. But Prescott’s 2-5 record in the playoffs leaves a lot to be desired. This could lead Dallas to move on from him after one more season since Prescott has failed to prove that he can get them over that playoff hump. If indeed Prescott isn’t in the plans after 2024, then they will have to address the position prior to the season. They did trade a fourth-rounder to the 49ers for Trey Lance but he seems more like a developmental backup than a true successor. So if Jones decides to move on from Prescott it should become clear once we start to see how he attacks the offseason and this year’s NFL Draft.
#5. Nothing
Unfortunately, as much as Cowboys fans are calling for big changes, the most likely outcome is that Jones does incremental ones but nothing that is headline news. While I’m sure he’ll have to entertain the idea of hiring a new coach, McCarthy has had success with this team and has probably bought him a bit more time as the coach. While the defense did let the team down in the Wild Card round, no one is really blaming Dan Quinn. In fact, not only is he not being blamed but teams are wanting to interview him for head coaching vacancies. So while a new defensive coordinator could be in the cards that will most likely be because Quinn wants to move on, not Jones. As for Prescott, if he had played abysmally against the Packers I would see moving on from him as a possibility, but he didn’t. Yes, he did throw two interceptions (one of which went for a touchdown), but when your QB accounts for nearly 450 total yards and throws three touchdowns it’s hard to say he’s the reason you lost. This is especially true when your defense allows a first-year starter to throw for 272 yards and three TDs and allows 143 yards and three TDs to the run game. The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and their offense managed to put up 42 points against one of the best regular season defenses in the league. To turn around and lay the blame at the feet of Prescott seems unlikely. Plus, from everything we know about Jones, he isn’t a “reset the clock” type of guy. This team has enough talent to win now and that is exactly what he will want to do and what he will expect, so he’s not going to make too many huge changes that could keep them from accomplishing that goal. So while he could clean house, that just isn’t the Jerry Jones way.
