DFS Breakdown: Thanksgiving Slate
Week 12 begins with our traditional Thanksgiving feast of football games. This year’s slate is the Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions, Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys, and the Baltimore Ravens vs the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.
With so many games on the slate for Thursday, this article will be a little bit different. I will bring you your best plays and your worse plays so you get a full understanding of the slate. First, though let’s break down the games quickly on how each game will play out from a football standpoint.
Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions
Spread: Texans – 3 | O/U 51.5
Right now the Detroit Lions are struggling with injuries. Stafford is playing through a thumb injury; D’Andre Swift is coming into this week hoping to make the lineup after missing last week; Kenny Golladay has been missing since Week 8. However, the Houston Texans are rolling into this week on the back Of Deshaun Watson and his 344 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 11. Neither team is a defensive juggernaut, so I expect a lot of fantasy points in this game and a victory for the Houston Texans over the Detroit Lions 28-20.
Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -2.5 | O/U 46.5
This game probably won’t be as exciting as the first game on the slate but it’s football on Thanksgiving and part of that tradition is watching the Cowboys play. For the Cowboys to pull this victory off, they will need a game from their star Ezekiel Elliot. Last week the ground attack had a great game as they had a season-high 180 rushing yards against the Minnesota Vikings. This run game will also allow for a way to neutralize the Washington pass rush. However, I trust Alex Smith under center for Washington. Surround him with stud players like Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic(Dallas has allowed 9 rushing touchdowns against backs this year). Washington pulls off the upset over the Dallas Cowboys 24-20
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -5.5 | O/U 44.5
After your Thanksgiving nap, you will wake up and watch the struggling Baltimore Ravens take on the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. One of the big storylines from this game is Covid-19. The Ravens are dealing with 10 positive cases of Covid-19 this week, which includes Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins. The Steelers have been rolling this season and facing a team that is missing some of their weapons I think the Steelers run away with this game 24-13.
Now Let’s break down the best plays for you in each position for your Daily Fantasy Sports lineups.
Quarterbacks
- Best Plays: Deshaun Watson ($7,400) / Matthew Stafford ($5,800)
- Value Play: Alex Smith ($5,400)
- Avoid: Lamar Jackson ($6,800), Andy Dalton ($5,600)
You should always look to attack the highest O/U of the slate when you play DFS. This makes Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford very attractive for your lineup. Watson is as consistent as you can get this year, and with a lackluster defense in Detroit, Watson could produce a stellar game. Stafford is a great, yet confusing, play. Stafford struggles against Carolina and Minnesota(two optimal plays), yet he throws three touchdowns against Washington and Indianapolis(two subpar plays). He has the talent and the ability, what he needs is his weapons. D’Andre Swift is trending in the right direction however Kenny Golladay is struggling at the moment. Keep this in mind if you play Stafford.
Alex Smith has 2 games of over 300 yards since Week 9. For his price point, he is a value play to allow you to pay up in another position.
This week Lamara Jackson and Andy Dalton hit the avoid list. Lamar has talent but this team is struggling. They are also struggling with Covid-19 issues(which anymore could postpone the game), and he is missing two of his star backs against one of the best defenses in the league. I would look elsewhere on this slate. Andy Dalton is a risky play this week with that Washington pass rush, I expect a lot of running for the Cowboys and to slow down that stellar pass rush of Washington, combine that with the low O/U you can find better plays in this slate.
Running Backs
- Best Plays: Ezekiel Elliot ($6,800)/ D’Andre Swift ($6,500)/ Antonio Gibson ($6,000)
- Value Play: Gus Edwards ($4,000)/ J.D. McKissic ($5,100)/ Duke Johnson ($5,700)
- Avoid: James Connor ($6,200)
As we spoke before I think playing Zeke in your running back slot is worth it to your lineup. I believe the Cowboys will run more to slow down that pass rush of Washington and to take the ball out of Andy Dalton’s hands to limit any mistakes. D’Andre Swift(as long as he plays is facing the second worse rushing defense in the NFL, they have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season. These two plays should be your RB slots. Antonio Gibson also has a stellar matchup as I stated before the Cowboys have given up 9 rushing touchdowns this season.
Gus Edwards falls under the value plays due to his workload he will receive tied to his price. Due to Covid-19, he will be the lead back this week and only has to share the load with Justice Hill, who hasn’t shown anything since being drafted in the NFL. The only thing that keeps him from being a “best play” is that his opponent is the Steelers who are one of the best defenses on the ground. Last time against the Steelers, Edwards rushed for 87 yards on his 16 carries. He should be in your lineup to allow you to pay up elsewhere. Our other value play McKissic has a chance to have a decent game due to his PPR bump with catching the football out of the backfield. Alex Smith does like to check it down and Alex and McKissic seem to have a connection, however, sharing the backfield with Gibson makes it hard for McKissic to reach true potential in your lineup. Our final value play is Duke Johnson. If he doesn’t do it now while having the backfield to himself facing the worse rushing defense in the league, then it will never happen. Johnson is a high-risk high reward type play.
James Connor falls to the avoid list, before last week James Connor did rush for more than 50 yards from week 8-10. Last time against the Ravens he only had 47 rushing yards. You can find better plays elsewhere.
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Wide Receivers
- Best Plays: Terry McLaurin ($7,000)/ Will Fuller ($6,400)/ JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,900)
- Value Play: Brandin Cooks (5,300) / Marvin Jones (5,500) Marvin Hall ($3,900)
- Deep Value Play: Willie Snead($4,300)
- Avoid: Kenny Golladay($6,000)/ Marquise Brown($4,700)/ Michael Gallup ($3,500)
Lots of plays here with these teams playing Thursday, however one rule of fantasy this year is to put Terry McLaurin in your lineup. Terry is a stud wide receiver playing one of the worst defenses in the league. Last time ou he had a stat line of 7 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown, expect more of the same. The second rule of fantasy is, If Will Fuller is healthy you must play him. Deshaun Watson loves to connect with Fuller for touchdowns(Fuller has six on the year). They are also facing the woeful Lions defense and this game could be a shootout. Stack Watson and Fuller and expect a big day in your lineup. JuJu is one of my better plays because I don’t expect shots down the field for either offense and that falls into the gameplan of JuJu becoming a bigger weapon in the offense this week. Last time out against the ravens, JuJu produced to the tune of 7 catches for 67 yards. Any of the Steelers’ wide receivers could take over the game, however, for his price point, JuJu is my favored option.
My favorite value play is Brandin Cooks. Combine his price point with the highest O/U of the week and I expect another good game for Brandin Cooks. He is coming off four catches for 85 yards last week and he can outproduce those stats this week. My next value play is either Marvin from the Detroit Lions. Marvin Jones and Marvin Hall could have good games if Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola both sit(or are hampered). Finally, my deep value play is Willie Snead. Lamar is struggling to hit his wide receivers. However, since week 8 Willie Snead’s receptions are 5,4,5,3. He is a cheaper player and can outproduce his price point.
My avoid list is Kenny Golladay and Marquise Brown. Kenny is struggling with injury and is missing practice on a short week, so most likely he will not play. However Marquise Brown has been playing and just does not factor into the outcome of any games. I would avoid Brown until he proves his worth in this offense. Michael Gallup is also an avoid as this has been a down year for the Cowboys wide receiver. He is another player you avoid until he proves himself.
Tight Ends
- Best Play: Mark Andrews ($5,200)
- Value: T.J. Hockenson ($4,700)/ Eric Ebron ($4,100)
- Avoid: Everyone Else
Tight end is usually a position I punt in my lineup and if you decide to do that and take someone like Darren Fells($2,700) to save money and just hope for the touchdown, be my guest. However, if you are looking for the best play of the slate it’s quite easily Mark Andrews. This is the only player Lamar Jackson seems to feel comfortable with within the passing game and the Ravens will need him to move the ball to keep up in this AFC North battle.
The value plays are T.J Hockenson and Eric Ebron. Hockenson is a good play especially if Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola sit(even more so if for some reason Swift is not ready as well). However Ir early like Eric Ebron this week. His targets since week 7 are 6,4,3,2,4. I’ll take the cheaper option with the consistent targets to possibly fall in the endzone.
As for everyone else on the tight end radar, they are all dart throws. As I said to begin this section. You can punt the position and hope for one to fall in the endzone, so you can save money for your other positions.
Defense
- Best play: Washington ($3,700)
You can pay up for the Steelers if you like, however, the Washington defense has 10 sacks in the last three games. I’ll take that upside with the cheapest price point every week.
Free DFS Lineup For Thanksgiving Slate
- QB: Watson ($7,400)
- RB: Ezekiel Elliot($6,800)
- RB: Antonio Gibson ($6,000)
- WR: Brandin Cooks ($5,300)
- WR: Marvin Hall ($3,900)
- WR: Terry McLaurin ($7,000)
- TE: Darren Fells ($2,700)
- FLEX: Will Fuller ($6,400)
- DST: Washington ($3,700)
