DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 11
DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 11
The NFL Week 11 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let's think about how to react to last week's DFS slate. With ten weeks of data under our belts, it's hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Previous Week's Results
Results in select DraftKings contests:
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] - 3347/5747
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] - 6251/11494
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] - 4017/6896
- NFL GIANT $2 Double Up [Single Entry] - 3058/4825
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] - 3431/5747
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up - 1760/2873
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] - 2141/3448
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests - 0%
Cash line in DraftKings Massive $25 Double-Up contest - 145.14
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 10:
I only have two things to say as I mourn my DFS cash season that has gone down the toilet. First, Tony Pollard is dead to me. If you can't get more than five fantasy points when your team puts up seven touchdowns, including three rushing touchdowns, then you're done. Second, one decision cost me 10 points and a win this week. Staying with Ja'Marr Chase instead of dropping down a couple of hundred to get to Amon-Ra St. Brown will haunt me. I legitimately thought about that decision all weekend.
Be sure you're following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let's look at which players make good selections in Week 11.
Tua Tagovailoa (DK: $7,700, FD: $8,400) leads the offense with the highest implied total on the slate (29.5 points), and they are more than two points ahead of the next closest team. With the entire offense now fully healthy (including Devon Achane), Tua is slightly too cheap on DK considering the potential for 30+ points in this game. Las Vegas is bottom-10 in the league with a 67.3% completion percentage allowed to opponents.
Kyler Murray (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,600) looked fully healthy last week and is in the game with the highest overall implied total, with the Cardinals and Texans projected to combine for 48.5 points and both teams clearing 22. Houston is bottom-10 in the league with 246.3 passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Brock Purdy (DK: $5,800, FD: $7,500) is a big 11.5-point favorite over Tampa Bay this weekend, and the Buccaneers have been absolutely gashed by opposing quarterbacks recently. In their last three games, Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL with over 307 passing yards allowed (they also rank 31st on the entire season). With Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all healthy, Purdy has all his weapons and a healthy team total at a low salary on DK. He is my preferred spend-down option at the position.
Christian McCaffrey (DK: $9,300, FD: $10,000) gets all the same caveats as Brock Purdy about a good game environment, and he has the highest usage plus snap rate of any running back in the league. He failed to score a touchdown for the first time in 19 games last week and he still scored 20.2 DK points. He is back to seeing massive targets as well, with an average of 8.5 over the last two games.
Austin Ekeler (DK: $8,600, FD: $8,800) had his highest rushing attempts and second-most targets of the season last week against Detroit in the shootout, so there are no more concerns about him returning from injury. He has three straight games with more than 21 fantasy points and how gets Green Bay who allows 4.2 yards per rush to running backs and the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
Tony Pollard (DK: $6,600, FD: $6,900) won't be in my lineup (probably). But maybe if he hasn't destroyed your soul, he could be in yours. The matchup against Carolina is sublime, but that's what we said last week against the Giants.
Rachaad White (DK: $6,000, FD: $6,600) enters a tough matchup in this game against San Francisco, but his great volume from early in the season has entered elite territory, He has back-to-back games with 20 rush attempts and at least 40 receiving yards. Week 6 was the last time he didn't score at least 16 fantasy points and the touchdowns have finally started to come. He has three in his last two games and can make value at these salaries just by enormous volume against the 49ers.
Devin Singletary (DK: $5,300, FD: $6,500) bounced back after being a bust in Week 8 to rush 30 times and score 26 fantasy points against the Bengals. Houston's passing offense is (rightly) getting all the hype lately, but the Texans are still running the ball 43% of the time and Dameon Pierce continues to be out with an ankle injury. The Cardinals allow the fourth-most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns to opponents this season.
Tyreek Hill (DK: $9,300, $FD: $9,800) gets back on the main slate and is cheaper than his last two slates on DK even though he is facing a very poor pass defense. Hill now ranks number one in the NFL in target rate (35.9%) and is fourth in air yards share. Even with Devon Achane and Jaylen Waddle active for this game, he should be smothered in targets. He hasn't seen fewer than nine targets since Week 4.
Brandon Aiyuk (DK: $7,200, FD: $7,800) makes sense this week if we like Brock Purdy against the Buccaneers. Aiyuk has been the most consistent receiver on the 49ers and has at least 10.7 fantasy points in four straight games. He finally got back in the end zone last week and will look to get the ball in positions to use his elite yards after the catch ability against this overmatched Tampa Bay secondary.
Tank Dell (DK: $5,900, FD: $7,000) is once again in play and too cheap on both sites if Nico Collins sits out again with injury. All Tank Dell has done the past two weeks is score more than 50 combined fantasy points including 170 yards and three touchdowns. Arizona ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt and Dell should have no problem blowing the top off this defense for big plays.
Michael Wilson (DK: $3,400, FD: $5,400) and Rondale Moore (DK: $3,300, FD: $4,900) might be the cheap pieces at wide receiver you need to make the rest of your lineup work this week. Robert Woods also qualifies if Nico Collins is out again, but this is the game environment to target for potential cheap points. Arizona threw the ball 57% of the time in Kyler Murray's return last week and Rondale Moore got eight of those targets.
Evan Engram (DK: $4,300, FD: $5,700) is one of the top options in projections and salary this week with no Kelce, Andrews, or Hockenson on the slate. Engram has at least seven targets in five straight games and has at least 10 points in three of those games despite Trevor Lawrence's struggles.
Trey McBride (DK: $4,400, FD: $5,900) has been battling T.J. Hockenson for the best tight end title over the last two or three weeks. And even with a $1,000 salary jump on DK, he still might be too cheap. McBride averages over nine targets per game over the last three weeks and has scored more than 24 fantasy points twice. What makes it even better, the Texans allow the most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Chig Okonkwo (DK: $3,200, FD: $4,800) is a very cheap way to get a good matchup if you can't afford McBride or Engram at their salaries. The Chargers are the fourth-worst team against tight ends this season and have allowed the second-most receiving yards to the position. After a few down weeks, Okonkwo has at least six targets in three of his last nine games.
Pittsburgh DST (DK: $3,500, FD: $4,000) gets a Cleveland Browns team that will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson and is way too cheap on both sites for the what that downgrade in quarterback can offer in terms of potential fantasy points. In his only start this year, Thompson-Robinson threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. A supercharged Steelers pass rush should be all over this inexperienced quarterback on Sunday.
New York Jets DST (DK: $2,600, FD: $3,700) are priced down because of the perceived bad matchup against the Bills, but we all saw on Monday night how Josh Allen can be very prone to turnovers and sacks. The Jets have at least three sacks in three straight games and also have six interceptions + fumble recoveries in their last four contests.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build.
Ryan is a 20-year veteran of fantasy baseball, football, and basketball leagues. He has been writing about fantasy sports, sports betting, and DFS since 2018 and is a member of the FSWA and IBWAA. A native of Houston, he is a die-hard fan of the Astros, Rockets, and - reluctantly - the Texans. When he is not buried under sports analysis and TV show recaps, he works full-time in higher education and can be found pursuing his other passions: drinking coffee and writing about comic book investment and speculation.