DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 12
The NFL Week 12 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With eleven weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results in select DraftKings contests:
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1644/5747
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 2617/11494
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1915/6896
- NFL $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 871/2298
- NFL GIANT $2 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1357/4825
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1777/5747
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up – 918/2873
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1226/3448
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 100%
Cash line in DraftKings Massive $25 Double-Up contest – 156.62
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 11:
This was a pretty straightforward week for me in cash, and it was certainly one of the chalkiest weeks of the year. My last decision before lock was a 2-v-2 between Kyler Murray and Aaron Jones or Brock Purdy and Tony Pollard. Clearly, Purdy/Pollard was the smash and was one of the best (and most popular) lineups in cash. But based on my experience the last few weeks, I declared Tony Pollard dead to me and I had a brain-lock on not rostering him. That was a bad call, and thankfully the rest of my lineup was able to carry me past the cash line despite the Aaron Jones injury.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 12.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (DK: $8,300, FD: $8,800) is the highest-salary quarterback on the slate and his performances of late back it up. His 20 fantasy points in Week 11 were the first time since Week 1 that he did not have at least 21.8 in a game and now he gets Buffalo with the second-highest implied team total on the slate. This game against the Bills is also the highest game total of the Week 12 slate at over 48 points.
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Trevor Lawrence (DK: $6,400, FD: $7,800) had his best game of the season in Week 11, throwing for two scores and rushing for two more. That’s now three out of the last four games with Lawrence hitting the 70% completion rate and he is also rushing the ball more over the second half of the season. This matchup against the Texans has sneaky shootout potential and Houston has allowed the seventh-highest yards per completion over the last three weeks.
Baker Mayfield (DK: $5,500, FD: $6,800) is a strong salary-saver option on both sites with week as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get what could be a track meet game in the dome in Indianapolis. The Colts play at the fastest rate in the league and are bottom 10 in the league in opponents’ yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks.
Running Back
Travis Etienne (DK: $7,100, FD: $8,600) saw 23 touches for 138 yards the last time these two teams played and he scored 17.8 fantasy points without getting in the end zone. Etienne’s usage this year has been elite and the end zone should be easier to find this week with Houston allowing 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game (26th in the NFL).
Jonathan Taylor (DK: $6,900, FD: $7,500) is no longer in any type of timeshare now that he cracked 85% of the running back snaps in his last game. Fresh off a bye week, this is the healthiest we have seen Taylor all season and he should have a big workload as a home favorite against Tampa Bay. The Bucs have yet to allow a running back to score a rushing touchdown this year, but I am betting that changes this week in a heavy-usage Jonathan Taylor game.
Bijan Robinson (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,400) finally got the usage lid taken off in his last game and saw 24 total opportunities, far and away his most of the season. The tea leaves from the Falcons are saying that Robinson is going to get a lot more usage going forward, especially in a game against the Saints that will help decide who wins the division. Over the last three weeks, New Orleans is 29th in the league, allowing 5.0 yards per rush attempt.
Rachaad White (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,000) had his early-season struggles with efficiency, but the Buccaneers kept the faith and are now being rewarded with some massive production. White hasn’t seen fewer than 16 opportunities since Week 6 and has five straight games with at least 16 fantasy points. I don’t like Baker Mayfield and White together, but White’s salary has not kept up with how productive he has been.
Devin Singletary (DK: $5,300, FD: $7,300) is also in play just like the last two weeks if Dameon Pierce should happen to miss again in Week 12.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown (DK: $9,000, $FD: $8,800) saw his salary go up by $500 despite getting only 1.8 fantasy points in the Monday night game last week. That is certainly a decision point in a slate without too much obvious value, but it’s clear that no one on Sunday has Brown’s upside for 150 yards and multiple scores. The numbers are skewed slightly because of the Bills allowing just 6.1 yards per completion to Zach Wilson last week, but on the season, their defense has allowed almost 10 yards per completion.
Puka Nacua (DK: $7,600, FD: $8,200) has dropped down to a much lower salary on both sites after his uber-production early in the season without Cooper Kupp. If Kupp should miss this game due to injury, Nacua would be a smash play again at this salary. Arizona has allowed the sixth-most yards to wide receivers and the 10th-most receiving touchdowns this year. Just check the reports on Kupp’s health before he is locked in.
Michael Pittman (DK: $6,800, FD: $7,600) has seen at least eight targets and at least eight receptions in four of his last five games as Gardner Minshew has been keying in on him more than any other receiver. He has a five-game streak with at least 14.4 fantasy points and is walking into a matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Tampa Bay has given up 2.7 passing touchdowns per game over the last three weeks and is second in yards allowed and sixth in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers this year.
Justin Watson (DK: $3,000, FD: $5,100) has the trust of Patrick Mahomes, as we saw on Monday night (11 targets, one touchdown), and is just way too cheap on DK for the role he has in a powerful Chiefs option. As a way to fit in a stud or two this week Watson helps make everything work. Even if he gets five points in cash games, you’re fine with that at $3,000.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (DK: $8,200, FD: $8,300) is, of course, the ultimate security blanket for Patrick Mahomes, and he took his 4.4 fantasy point game from Week 9 and shook it off (obligatory Taylor Swift joke) for nine targets, a touchdown, and 16.4 fantasy points last week. No other tight end is within $2,800 on DK and Kelce might be worth spending up on against an abysmal Raiders’ defense.
Dalton Kincaid (DK: $5,300, FD: $6,000) keeps getting mega targets from Josh Allen and has seen fewer than seven one time in the last five games. He has double-digit fantasy points in all five of those games and Philadelphia has actually allowed the most touchdowns to the tight end position this season (six).
Trey McBride (DK: $4,700, FD: $6,100) may have “only” seen seven targets last week against Houston, but his usage still remains elite in this improved offense with Kyler Murray. The Rams have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, including more than 11 yards per reception and five total touchdowns.
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City Chiefs DST (DK: $3,100, FD: $5,000) is the most expensive defense on FD, but just 12th on DK this week. Against an Aiden O’Connell defense averaging 0.7 passing touchdowns per game over the last three and giving up two sacks per game, $3,100 is way too cheap on DK.
Denver Broncos DST (DK: $3,200, FD: $4,100) have averaged over 11 fantasy points per game the last three weeks while playing Kansas City, Buffalo, and Minnesota. In a home game against third-stringer Dorian Thompson-Robinson, $3,200 on DK seems too cheap.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build.
