DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 4
The NFL Week 4 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With only three weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results on DraftKings:
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 12.5%
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 3:
One of the prevailing theories in DFS cash games is that defense (DST) truly does not matter. There is little correlation t,o high salary and high performance, and the best course of action is to target a cheap defense in a game environment conducive to a lot of drop-backs (which lead to sacks and interceptions). And while I abide by that rule, defense mattered A LOT this week and was the difference between me sweeping all contests and only winning in 12%.
My last decision on Sunday morning was whether I wanted to try and get Christian Kirk in my lineup. My lineup that I was prepared to go to battle with was what you see above except for Michael Thomas and Bills DST. I thought Michael Thomas was a relatively thin play (he had 11 points at $5,300 so he was fine), and wanted to get up to Kirk in a better game environment. That was the right move in a vacuum, as it turns out, but I needed an extra $100 to do it. Believing that DST truly didn’t matter, I was happy to drop down $100 to get a strong Jets defense against a mistake-prone Mac Jones in a sloppy, wet game environment. That decision cost me more than 23 net points and ended up with my lineup slightly below the cash line (166 points) in contests $10 and above.
I can’t look at this and say it was a bad decision (playing Kelley and perhaps paying up for Tony Pollard were bad calls), but I would make that DST move 100 times out of 100 moving forward. At least other people took my advice from Week 3 and made money with Buffalo!
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update every weekend with new players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 3.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (DraftKings: $7,800, FanDuel: $8,600) is coming off a week where he was QB1 on the week, and while this matchup against the Raiders might not be quite as nice as the Vikings, there are still plenty of reasons to pay up for Herbert. First, with Austin Ekeler out in back-to-back weeks, Herbert has thrown more than 40 times each game. You lose Mike Williams? Alright, well we will just plug in Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston. The Raiders are 30th in the NFL with a 75% completion percentage allowed and they have given up the third-most passing touchdowns in 2023.
Anthony Richardson (DK: $6,700, FD: $7,600) will be back from his Week 3 absence due to a concussion. His salary is up only $400 from Week 2 when he scored almost 18 points in less than two quarters and was on his way to a monster game thanks to his rushing ability. Now he gets the Los Angeles Rams who are bottom 10 in the league with 4.5 rush yards allowed per attempt as well as rushing touchdowns allowed per game.
Brock Purdy (DK: $5,900, FD: $7,100) has led the 49ers to exactly 30 points in three straight games and Week 3 was his best showing of the season. He topped 300 passing yards and threw two scores against an egregiously bad New York Giants defense. Now he gets the Arizona Cardinals at home who give up 10.0 yards per completion. Below Purdy’s $5,900 on DraftKings, there are a whole lot of question marks, so he is the safest bet if you are paying down at the position.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (DK: $9,200, FD: $9,700) has become one of these players who we look at their 22.9 PPR points in Week 3 and we think, “Oh, well I guess that’s alright.” We’re spoiled! McCaffrey had an “off” game where he scored a touchdown, got almost 23 PPR points, and we were disappointed because it wasn’t the 27 points he averaged in the first two games. The Cardinals are bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs and have somehow given up three receiving touchdowns on just 15 total receptions by the position against them this year. Purdy and McCaffrey don’t probably belong in the same cash lineup, but either one looks good for this week.
Kyren Williams (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600) can claim to be one of the few players who has a bell-cow role in their offense and is getting McCaffrey-level workloads for a fraction of the salary. In Week 3, Williams logged 100% of the running back snaps. That’s right, the two backups the Rams have on the roster never saw the field. That means an easy 15 touches (what Williams averages this year) and some high touchdown equity. Williams already has four scores in three games this year.
Miles Sanders (DK: $5,800, FD: $6,600) is getting some high-value work that was missing from his time on the Philadelphia Eagles. Now with Carolina, the coaching staff said they were going to involve Sanders in the passing game, and they were right. Sanders recorded nine targets in Week 3, the highest number of his career. He has at least 14 touches in every game, has seen his snap rate go up each week, and now faces the Vikings who allowed 259 rushing yards the last time they played a road game.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (DK: $9,200, $FD: $9,600) really has no more superlatives that can be used to describe his game anymore. Before the game against the Denver Broncos was four minutes in, he had a 50+ yard touchdown in the 70-20 rout. This matchup against the Bills will be a much tougher test, but Hill is on another level right now. To put it in some comparison, Hill is averaging 1.75 more yards per route run (5.09) than Justin Jefferson (3.25) who is often considered the best wide receiver in the league. If you’re worried about Tre’Davious White, just remember there were people who thought Patrick Surtain might slow down Hill last week.
Keenan Allen (DK: $7,900, FD: $9,500) might not be able to withstand this kind of workload all season, but for now, he is in about the best possible scenario. Austin Ekeler likely plays this week, but might not be 100%. Mike Williams is out for the year. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston are unproven. And the Chargers under new OC Kellen Moore want to play fast and aggressively. The FanDuel salary is getting way up there, but he is simply way too cheap on DraftKings.
Adam Thielen (DK: $4,500, FD: $6,800) showed he still has a lot of gas left in the tank on Sunday, but the question will be can he repeat that with Bryce Young under center instead of Andy Dalton? Thielen saw 14 targets in Week 3, or three more than he had in the first two weeks combined. He turned that into 145 yards and a score. He also had 138 air yards which was double his total from Weeks 1 and 2. He showed enough that the Carolina coaching staff should be telling Young to pepper Thielen with 10-yard slants up-field on Sunday. Thielen is another player going up against Minnesota in Week 3, so the Carolina passing game should stay rolling. And one more thing: #RevengeGame.
Tank Dell (DK: $4,600, FD: $6,200) got a 28% salary bump on DK after his explosion in Week 3 against Jacksonville, but I fear even that might not be enough to keep him from being mega chalk. He is becoming a more integral part of this C.J. Stroud and may also be evolving into their best receiving option. According to Fantasy Points Data, Dell’s first-read target share was 14.8% in Week 1, 21.2% in Week 2, and 31.6% in Week 3. Pittsburgh will be a tougher test than last week, but we know speed always wins in the end.
Tight End
George Kittle (DK: $5,100, FD: $6,300) is coming off his best game of the season, but was it just a product of Brandon Aiyuk being out, or indicative of what is to come? Even though they haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end yet this year, the Cardinals have allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position and allow 10.0 yards per completion through the first three weeks of the season. Kittle may not be the tight end with the world-famous girlfriend right now, but he is set up in a great spot against a weak Cardinals’ secondary.
Pat Freiermuth (DK: $3,400, FD: $5,500) hasn’t produced at the level DFS and fantasy managers have wanted this year, but he did finally get back on track in Week 3. His three catches for 41 yards and a score were all season-highs and he will play this game once again without Diontae Johnson hogging targets. Freiermuth just played his most snaps of the season at 79% last week and is the clear top of the heap for the low-priced tight ends in Week 4.
Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans DST (DK: $3,600, FD: $4,500) is a little bit pricier than I like to pay for DST, but if the build works I am fine with them taking on Baker Mayfield this week. Mayfield ranks 28th in clean-pocket completion percentage and is only 16th in expected points added per play. Traveling to New Orleans, the Buccaneers are only projected to score 18.5 points as New Orleans holds opponents to just 0.27 points per play this year (seventh in the NFL).
Cleveland DST (DK: $2,800, FD: $4,300) may be facing a very strong offensive force in the Baltimore Ravens, but they have been just as much of a force on defense this season. Cleveland ranks seventh in sack rate (9.4%) and allows the fewest passing yards per game (112 per game, 18 fewer than the next team). They have given up one passing touchdown in three games and have been the best team against third downs this season as well (allowing a 19.5% success rate).
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. I really want to try and find a way to get up to Tyreek Hill again this week in a projected shootout, but am finding it difficult to do so. Hopefully as we the weekend progresses we will get some value open up at various spots that will allow it.
