DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 5
The NFL Week 5 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With only four weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results on DraftKings:
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 108/2298
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 282/6896
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 432/16303
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 298/9195
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 221/4597
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up – 123/2873
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 261/5747
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 100%
Winning percentage in Head-to-Head contests – 100%
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 4:
Late-breaking news turned this Week 4 slate on its head from a cash perspective, and how you chose to react to it determined your fate. When it was announced that Aiden O’Connell ($4,000 on DK) would start for the Raiders instead of Jimmie Garoppolo or Brian Hoyer, the cash game pool got severely different. A $4,000 quarterback who can walk and chew gum at the same time usually unlocks a plethora of options for lineups and the crowd normally jumps on him. But this time, I was not biting.
This was not some running dual-threat quarterback and O’Connell was a rookie making his first start on the road. I seriously thought the floor for O’Connell was about 2-3 points and the Raiders would just pound Josh Jacobs on every play. In the end, O’Connell got 12 fantasy points (which were lucky because of a Jacobs touchdown that was overturned because he was tackled at the half-yard line). My lineup ended up outscoring just about every O’Connell lineup because those also were able to jam in players like Ja’Marr Chase or Tony Pollard, who largely disappointed.
Will avoiding these cheap skeleton-key quarterbacks always work? Certainly not, and I consider myself lucky to have avoided a 20-point landmine that was played by 30% of the field. It made for a fun experiment and led to some lively debates on Twitter/X.
It also doesn’t always work this cleanly, but Christian McCaffrey was 50% rostered and had an ultra-elite ceiling game with 51.7 points. Considering that roster percentage, if you had CMC, you won. You didn’t, and you likely lost.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
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Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 5.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel: $9,200) could make it a long afternoon for the Vikings in this shootout projected for 52.5 points (moved up from 51.5 points) in the dome. The Vikings are bottom 10 in the league with 1.8 passing touchdowns allowed per game and that’s with Week 4 where they somehow allowed none through the air. As if you need more reason to start Mahomes, he is ninth among quarterbacks with 0.58 fantasy points per drop-back and his receivers have dropped the most passes in the NFL this year. I’m feeling one of those vintage 350-yard, four-touchdown games incoming just to remind everyone who is the best.
Josh Dobbs (DK: $5,200, FD: $6,600) has scored 23, 17, and 22 fantasy points in his last three games, starkly outplaying even the most optimistic projections anyone had on him entering the 2023 season. He now gets the struggling Cincinnati Bengals at home who are 25th in the league with 10.8 yards allowed per attempt to their opponents. Arizona passed almost 63% of the time in their last game, which – combined with Dobbs’ 146 rushing yards from the last three weeks – gives him a very safe floor at just $5,200.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson (DK: $7,700, FD: $8,200) is the lead back by default on a week where Saquon Barkley is coming back from injury and we have no Christian McCaffrey or Tony Pollard. He is underpriced for a matchup against the leaky Texans’ rush defense that has already allowed five rushing touchdowns through four games. Houston also has the highest rushing touchdown rate allowed this season at 77.8%. The next closest team is the Rams at just 62.5%. Robinson also ranks fourth among running backs in target share, second in routes run, and first overall in receptions. He should get the lion’s share of the work on Sunday and the salary doesn’t reflect that.
Alvin Kamara (DK: $6,300, FD: $7,100) set a strange record last week with 13 catches for just 33 yards. That’s a PPR dream for a site like DraftKings, and while he is unlikely to catch that many passes again, it shows Kamara is ready for a full workload after missing three weeks. Kamara immediately saw 75% of the snaps last week and he should be dialed up for a full workload once again against New England.
David Montgomery (DK: $6,600, FD: $8,500) has a wild discrepancy in his salary on DraftKings and FanDuel this week, and it’s certainly a moment to take advantage of his bell-cow type role in a game where the Lions are favored by 10 points. Montgomery touched the ball 34 times against Green Bay last week and now gets a much better matchup. The Panthers have already allowed the second-most rushing scores and third-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
Isiah Pacheco (DK: $5,700, FD: $6,600) is probably not a player to have in your lineups if you choose to also roster Patrick Mahomes, but who knows, it could work out just fine against a poor Minnesota defense. The Vikings are just middle of the pack with 365 rushing yards allowed in four games, but that’s because everyone keeps passing on them. Pacheco has taken over a workhorse role, playing 60% of snaps in Week 4 and handling 23 touches, his highest ever. He has even taken over in the passing game, as he out-targeted Jerick McKinnon three to one in their last game.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson (DK: $9,400, $FD: $9,200) averages over 105 receiving yards per game at home for his career and has scored 20 times in 27 career games in the dome he calls home. The Vikings are 3.5-point home underdogs on Sunday and already lead the league with a 69.6% passing play percentage. Minnesota should be throwing at least that amount on Sunday and Jefferson will look to keep his streak of four straight games with at least nine targets alive.
Garrett Wilson (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,400) led the NFL in targets last week with 14 in a game where Zach Wilson actually looked somewhat competent. But if Wilson is getting 14 targets per game at just $6,000 on DraftKings, it doesn’t matter as much what Zach Wilson does, but Garrett can get there on volume alone at this salary. The kicker this week is that the Jets play the Denver Broncos who have allowed the most passing touchdowns and the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Marquise Brown (DK: $5,000, FD: $6,400) has been better than advertised before the start of the season thanks to the aggressive play from Josh Dobbs and a top-12 target share over the last three weeks (27.4%). Only nine wide receivers have at least 10 targets in two of their last three games, and Hollywood Brown is one of them. He is now ninth in snap share at the position (92.6%) and that has led to the 10th-best fantasy points per game (23.4).
Wan’Dale Robinson (DK: $3,000, FD: $5,400) looks a LOT less attractive on FanDuel at $5,400, but for the increase in playing time he saw in his second game back from injury, $3,000 looks mighty nice on DK. He jumped up to 64% of snaps in Week 4 and led all Giants players in targets. This New York Giants’ offense might be in complete shambles right now, but that’s baked into the salary on DK this weekend.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (DK: $5,500, FD: $7,600) looks to be way too cheap on DraftKings a week after scoring two touchdowns and looking like Lamar Jackson’s number one guy again. Only Jake Ferguson has more receiving yards in the Red Zone (41) than Andrews does this season (28). In the three games Andrews has been active this year, he is third among tight ends with a 22% target share.
Zach Ertz (DK: $3,500, FD: $5,100) bailed me out with 11 DraftKings points so why not go right back to that well for just $300 more? Ertz has at least eight targets in three of four games this year. He dropped a touchdown last week, but with the way Josh Dobbs and this offense have been moving the ball, it won’t be long before he finds the end zone. The Bengals are allowing the fifth-most points to the tight end position through the first month of the season.
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City Chiefs DST (DK: $3,300, FD: $4,500) look to be mighty cheap on DraftKings considering their opportunity and the game total should not scare us off. What we want in DST are lots of drop-backs and opportunities for sacks and interceptions from our opposing quarterback. At almost 70%, no other team passes as much as the Minnesota Vikings and they are coming off a game where they let Kirk Cousins get sacked on 10% of his drop-backs.
Arizona Cardinals DST (DK: $2,800, FD: $3,700) are right about where I look to pay for DST, and they get a very vulnerable Joe Burrow at home in Week 5. Burrow is clearly hindered by his calf injury which has led to him not running at all (which equals more sacks). Minnesota is the only other team that throws at a higher rate than Cincinnati, so even if Joe Burrow is miraculously healthy, Arizona can rack up some points.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. This lineup does lean heavily on the Arizona Cardinals which is scary, but it allows you to get Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, David Montgomery, and Kyren Williams. Even if Cooper Kupp does come back in Week 5, he isn’t taking Williams’ touches.
