DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 6
The NFL Week 6 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With only five weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results on DraftKings:
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1662/2298
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 4735/6896
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 8867/16303
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 5935/9195
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 3236/4597
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up – 1998/2873
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 3949/5747
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 0%
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 5:
This week came down to a simple equation in cash games: “No Chase? No cash.” If you did not have Ja’Marr Chase and his 19 targets, 15 receptions, and three touchdowns in your cash lineup this week, it was going to be very hard to get above the cash line as the rest of your lineup needed to be close to perfect. In this contest above, the $25 massive double up on DraftKings, he was about 32% rostered. Those teams auto-cashed if they rostered eight other players who were breathing. The rest of us had to fight for the other 18% before you found the cash line.
Since I was prioritizing Mahomes, Bijan Robinson, and Tyreek Hill, I did not have room for Chase. My only real decision that I struggled with before lock was Devon Achane or Alvin Kamara. Achane would outscore Kamara by seven points on the day and had a MUCH higher roster percentage. In the end, it did not matter for my lineup. In hindsight, I should have gone with Sam LaPorta at tight end since Amon-Ra St. Brown was out and paid down for someone like Achane or Joe Mixon in my other running back spot over Bijan Robinson. That might have gotten me to the money even without Chase.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 5.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (DraftKings: $6,100, FanDuel: $7,300) is in a magnificent situation here with his top two receiving weapons now available to him against the Cardinals. Arizona allows top-five numbers in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Joe Burrow just torched them last week with Ja’Marr Chase and now they go on the road to the house that Cooper Kupp built.
Gardner Minshew (DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500) may not be able to add the rushing upside and goal-line equity that Anthony Richardson could for the Colts, but he is a much more accurate passer and should help continue the resurgence of Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. The Jaguars have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and rank 26th with just nine sacks on the year.
P.J. Walker (DK: $4,000, FD: $6,100) at $4,000 on DraftKings means we have another Aiden O’Connell decision to make this week. Deshaun Watson will miss this game with a “shoulder injury” and the team has indicated that Walker will pick up the start. At the bare minimum salary for a quarterback, all we really need for Walker to do is throw for 150 yards, pass for a score, and rush for 25 yards and he easily pays off the price tag.
Running Back
David Montgomery (DK: $7,300, FD: $8,100) is seeing such massive workloads now in the high-powered Lions’ offense that anything below $8,000 on DK and $9,000 on FD feels like great value. The Buccaneers are middle of the pack against running backs this year, but that’s because they somehow have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. David Montgomery is third among all running backs in red zone touches (24) so he might be the guy to break that streak in Week 6.
Travis Etienne (DK: $7,100, FD: $7,700) has absolutely no concerns about Tank Bigsby stealing his work anytime soon. He saw 31 opportunities against Buffalo in London last week and demolished them for 184 total yards and two scores. Etienne is in the top six among running backs in both rushing yards and receiving yards this year and is now second overall in carries (95).
Raheem Mostert (DK: $6,400, FD: $8,500) might have a more massive share of the Dolphins’ rushing game coming his way after the Devon Achane injury, but we have to be somewhat cautious that Mike McDaniel might think Jeff Wilson Jr. deserves 60% of the snaps for some reason. I don’t think that’s happening this week, and one of the top playmakers in the game this year gets Carolina who allows the fifth-most yards per carry to opponents this season (4.9 yards).
Chuba Hubbard (DK: $4,300, FD: $5,500) might be the running back value piece we need since Miles Sanders will miss this game and the Panthers’ coach stated Hubbard would get the “bulk” of the carries. Hubbard can play the pass-catching role or the two-minute role, which both might be heavily in play for the underdog Panthers against Miami. Even with Sanders playing recently, Hubbard has out-snapped him in each of the last two weeks.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (DK: $9,300, $FD: $9,800) is the undisputed champion of the high-end wide receivers this week with no Justin Jefferson around. Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) is also anabsolutely phenomenal play and a lock again if Tee Higgins is out, but Hill is just on another level with this Dolphins’ offense right now. Hill has a target share over 30% now and leads the entire league in air yards share. Hill’s 273 yards after the catch are 40 more than the next-closest receiver.
A.J. Brown (DK: $7,800, FD: $8,200) may have a “tough” matchup against the Jets this week, who have been stingy against wide receivers, but look at the volume he is seeing over the last three weeks. He has 35 targets, 24 receptions, and is averaging over 140 receiving yards in his last three games against Tampa Bay, Washington, and the LA Rams. Only the Commanders are in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. With Dallas Goedert emerging to draw defenses and the Eagles defense not quite at the level of years past, Brown has a sage floor moving forward.
Marquise Brown (DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000) was once again the focal point of the Cardinals’ passing attack last Sunday. He got another 10 targets which resulted in 61 yards and a touchdown and he now has at least 16 DK points in four straight games. Only Brown and Puka Nacua have at least 10 targets in three of the last four games.
Christian Kirk (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,600) also has become the primary weapon on the Jaguars’ passing game after compiling eight targets against the Bills to bring his four-week total to 40 targets and 29 receptions. Christian Krik is one of eight players to have at least a 30% target share over the last three weeks, and now he gets the Colts who allow the ninth-most DK points to wide receivers this year.
Josh Downs (DK: $4,100, FD: $5,600) shouldn’t see much of a change with the Colts having to pivot to Gardner Minshew at quarterback. If anything, he now has a more accurate passer getting him the ball just as he is emerging as a powerful weapon for Indianapolis. Downs is showing he has uncanny abilities to gain yards after the catch, and now ranks 18th among all wide receivers in that category (116 yards) despite a part-time role to start the year.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (DK: $3,600, FD: $5,200) makes this list for the third week in a row because DK refuses to bump him up more than a couple of hundred dollars each week. Ertz saw his first touchdown fall into his arms last week which means he either has a touchdown or at least six receptions in four of the last five games. As an added bonus, the Rams allow the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Logan Thomas (DK: $3,500, FD: $5,400) exploded against Chicago last week with 11 targets, nine receptions, 77 yards and a score. He has become a favorite of quarterback Sam Howell and after last week has a target share that is approaching the same number as Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin. Thomas also finds himself in a good spot against a Falcons squad that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Defense/Special Teams
Houston Texans DST (DK: $2,900, FD: $3,700) still struggle to stop the run (although they improved last week versus Atlanta), but they have been very stingy with their passing defense. They have the lowest passing touchdown percentage allowed in the league and have only given up three scores in the air all year. In their last three games, Houston ranks second behind only Baltimore in opponents points per play.
Detroit Lions DST (DK: $2,700, FD: $4,400) has been playing lights-out defense, especially against the run this year. They allow the third-fewest rush yards per attempt to opponents in addition to their ferocious front seven which has a 10% sack rate over the Lions’ last three games. If MIke Evans misses the game for Tampa Bay, fire up this defense with confidence.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. These two builds show what it can look like to have either Matthew Stafford or Gardner Minshew in your lineup at QB. These cheaper quarterbacks allow you to roster several mid-price running backs and get up to Tyreek Hill if you want to.
