DFS Golf Tips
I have been an avid golfer and PGA Tour golf fan since I was a young teenager, for about 25 years now! I have been betting on golf for the last 10 years or so now, and really enjoy the weekly challenge where anything can happen and often does. Trying to figure out how a golfer is going to finish on any given week takes a lot of research, and of course some luck. I mostly play in daily fantasy golf contests these days, and really have fun putting together and editing my lineups from Monday to Thursday morning on a weekly basis. I look at various data points when conducting my research and due diligence – key stats for a particular course, ball striking, greens in regulation, short game, putting, current form, and previous year’s tournament results are all parts of my lineup building workflow process.
Many DFS users who compete in golf contests pay attention to player’s past results from the tournament of the week being played, but I would guess that most don’t pay attention to the context of those results – in this case I mean what was their form like leading up to that specific tournament result. For example, if I’m looking at Rickie Fowler’s past results for the Memorial Tournament – his past five years of results are as follows: T14th in 2019, 8th in 2018, 2nd in 2017, cut in 2016, and cut in 2015. Now let’s look at each of those years and how his past finishes were leading up to the Memorial Tournament.
In 2015 where he missed the cut, his five finishes before that tournament were 71st, 12th, cut, T9th, and 1st. Very interesting but not surprising to see that he finished 1st in his previous start and then missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament. I wrote an article about player’s patterns, and in it, I outline with supporting data, how players tend to do poorly the start after they won, and this is further proof of that.
In 2016 Rickie also missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament, and his previous five finishes before teeing it up there were T10th, cut, T20th, T4th, and cut. I’m often cautious in spending a good portion of my lineup budget on players who missed the cut the week before, as a cold streak may be developing.
2017 saw Fowler earn a runner up finish, and coming into the tournament in his five finishes before the Memorial Tournament he had a 12th, T3rd, T11th, cut, and 60th. This is an interesting frame of reference as he had a mini hot streak going where he finished from 3rd to 12th for three tournaments, but then got a cut and then a 60th to go on a short-term cold streak before his 2nd at the tournament which we are focused on. The week after he had a cut, then a T5th, and a T3rd. Very spotty play by him that year and those type of results were consistent throughout his 2016-2017 season.
Last year with his 8th place finish, he entered the Memorial Tournament with a T43rd, 2nd, T21st, cut, and a T14th. Nothing really notable in those five finishes to indicate an 8th was coming.
This year where he took home a T14th, his five finishes heading into the Memorial Tournament were T17th, T9th, T4th, T36th, and a cut. That cut was at the Charles Schab Challenge and it’s the only cut he’s missed this season. He was determined to get back to playing good golf again and grabbed his T14th. If he had other missed cuts this season then I think the probability would have been higher for him to miss the cut at the Memorial, but he didn’t so I would have viewed him as a safe bet to do fine.
So what does this all mean, and how can we use this thinking to our advantage for future tournaments? I believe that it’s important to look at what the golfer’s playing status was leading into a tournament where they got the result that you are focusing on. If a player missed the cut for three straight weeks the year before and missed the cut at the tournament you’re looking at then it shouldn’t come as a big surprise to you. If two years ago he was top 10 in his previous two tournaments and had another sparkling finish at the tournament you’re researching then that fits the mold of this article’s premise. Too often we just look at previous year’s results for a tournament but don’t understand what kind of form the player had at the time, which to me is just as important. Use this information to your advantage to draft players more effectively, as timing is everything.
All too often we are looking at the intersection between current form and previous year’s results, but that doesn’t tell the whole story – dig deeper into previous year’s results to see if you can see any patterns. If I see a player has made the cut the past five years at a tournament but some were great finishes and some were 50th or worst then I want to look at form leading into each event. I will often see scenarios such as this and when I look for connections between those results and how the player was playing each year prior to that tournament, I often see corresponding relationships. Typically, it’s part of a trend forming – so if the player earned a 3rd at the tournament that year then he was usually playing well leading up to it, and vice versa when his results were in the ’40s, ’50s, or ’60s.
When you see a player consistently having great finishes at a specific tournament then chances are he’s either a local who’s played the course many times, his stats are a great fit for the course, or for whatever reason his game shouldn’t fit well with the course but he still plays well there anyway. Two good examples can come from the most recent tournament, the Wyndham Championship. Webb Simpson is a local to the course and typically always finishes high at the tournament, and was coming in with great form – he’s currently in 2nd place after round three. Brandt Snedeker usually has great finishes at this same event and has even won it twice, but his stats don’t line up with the key stats for the course too well yet he finds a way to score well – maybe it reminds him of a course he played a lot growing up, who knows?!
There are times where I don’t even bother checking how a player had been doing leading up to a tournament where the finish was of importance to me. If a player has a solid track record on a course and is coming into the tournament with good, consistent form, then that’s all I usually need to bank on. Most of the time though, I’m intrigued about how the player’s story was unfolding leading up to a tournament, and I try to connect the dots. I’m not always right when I draw these conclusions of course, but more often than not I use this extra information to my advantage to win more contests more consistently, and the extra research time pays off in spades.
Go beyond what the average DFS user does for research to look for some context to support the finishes you’re examining – your bankroll’s performance will thank you!
