Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Packers – 5.5 | O/U 49.5
Week 9 begins with a rematch of the NFC Championship game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. This matchup however has a completely different look due to one main factor, injuries. The 49ers will be coming into the game with a backup quarterback and missing their star Tight End, George Kittle. The Packers are entering this game with their running back room in shambles with the injury to Aaron Jones, who is questionable to play this week combines with the pairing of AJ Dillion(Covid positive) and Jamaal Williams(close contact) out for the game. With so many variables brought to this game, how do either of these teams walk away with the victory? Let’s break it down below.
How Do The Green Bay Packers Win The Game?
It seems a bit simple to say that Packers will lean on Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams, but you know the old saying “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it”. This is especially true if Aaron Jones misses this game and limits Green Bay’s running attack. The San Francisco passing defense is one of the best in the league only giving up 209 yards per game, and 198 yards on average over the last 3 games. However, Aaron Rodgers has proven time and time again he can take over a game, and the Packers will need this talent this week.
How Do The San Francisco 49ers Win The Game?
For the 49ers to win this game, they need to lean into Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and produce in the running game. The Packers run defense is a weakness within that unit. They have allowed on average, 119 yards per game. This includes 136 yards in their last three games, with Dalvin Cook enjoying 163 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground last week. With Raheem Mostert and possibly Tevin Coleman out in week 9, the running game will be handed to Jamycal Hasty and Jerrick McKinnon.
How does this game break down for your daily fantasy sports(DFS) lineups? Let’s break it down below.
Aaron Rodgers ($11,000)
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for at least three touchdowns in five of the seven starts this season. He has a 20:2 TD: INT ratio and even though he has a stiffer opponent, this game script calls for the team to lean on his stellar arm. Don’t let the 49ers defense scare you off, play your studs.
Nick Mullens ($9,200)/ C.J. Beathard ($6,000)
Nick Mullens was amazing in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo in the Niners loss to the Seahawks last week. He threw for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns in just a quarter of action. Let’s keep in mind Seattle defense is one of the worse in the NFL and the last time Mullens saw action(week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles), he only had 200 yards and a pair of interceptions and was eventually replaced. This could easily happen again this week especially since they are missing Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. For $9,000 I would pivot away from an inconsistent quarterback.
Why did I include C.J. Beathard? Well as I stated earlier, Mullens could come out flat and you may get a switch I at that quarterback position. On the year he has thrown for 232 yards and 1 touchdown on 37 attempts(he completed 23 of those passes). Beathard would be the ultimate high-risk high reward in a tournament lineup, however, priced at $6,000 the risk is not worth entering this player into your lineup.
Aaron Jones ($9,800)/ Tyler Ervin ($200)
If Aaron Jones sits in week 9, with Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillion on the Covid19 list, Tyler Ervin becomes a play at $200. This low price player allows for flexibility in your lineup elsewhere and he may get the lion share of the backfield carries for this game against a defense giving up over 100 yards in their last 3 games to running backs.
Jerrick McKinnon (8,000)/ JaMycal Hasty ($7,200)
JaMycal Hasty led the backfield with 12 carries last week. With Tevin Coleman questionable this week, he could be leading this backfield again. However, between the two backs, the pass-catching back is McKinnon. With the Packers run defense being their weak point this year I would lean towards Hasty in this game.
Devante Adams ($12,400) / Marquez Valdes -Scantling ($3,400)
Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers is as safe as a bet for your lineups as any player in the league. he was given 12 targets last week and he caught 7 of them for 53 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 5 games played this year he has 7 touchdowns, as Rodger’s top option, Adams is a plug and play this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is technically the number 2 option on the Packers however he hasn’t done much with the opportunity as he has only totaled 96 yards receiving since Lazard went down with an injury. He would be a home run play at best, and I would pivot away from this option.
Brandon Aiyuk ($8,600)/ Kendrick Bourne ($6,200)
With the quarterback change in San Francisco, playing a Niners receiver comes with some risk. However, with Samuel and Kittle both missing time, Brandon Aiyuk becomes a worthy option. Last week he had 11 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. That is two strong weeks in a row for Aiyuk. This team does not have many options as therefore may lean heavily on their rookie to produce.
Kendrick Bourne had 8 catches for 81 yards last week, and with limited options could be a strong play again this week, especially in tournament play.
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Kendrick Bourne tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, according to a source. It means that Bourne will not play on Thursday night against the Packers. Any players deemed to be high-risk close contacts of his will also be ruled out, assuming the Week 9 game goes on as scheduled on Thursday night. It’s a tough break for Bourne and the Niners offense, as the 25-year-old posted season highs in targets (10), catches (eight) and receiving yards (81) in the Week 8 loss to the Seahawks. With George Kittle (foot) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) out, the Niners will lean on rookie Brandon Aiyuk, Richie James and Trent Taylor in three-receiver sets.
Robert Tonyan ($6,400)/ Jace Sternberger ($1,800)
Robert Tonyan finally came back to life last week after a few dud performances. He caught 5 of his 7 targets for 79 yards. The 49ers are one of the best against tight ends this year, giving up only 1 touchdown and 300 yards on the season. For his price point, Tonyan may not be the correct play this week. This goes for Sternberger as well, even if his price point after a 46-yard performance is intriguing.
Jordan Reed ($5,800)
Geroge Kittle is now out for the foreseeable future and this brings us back to Jordan Reed. The issue here is Jordan Reed was limited in practice on Tuesday. For his price point, I would pivot away and look elsewhere to build your lineup.
Mason Crosby ($4,000)/ Robbie Gould ($3,600)/ Packers D( $5,600)/ 49ers D ($3,800)
You could play the Packers defense this week and hope to cash in on a few turnovers, however, if I am picking anyone from this pack, it’s Robbie Gould. Mason Crosby hasn’t had a field goal attempt in the last two weeks and Robbie Gould team is fielding a backup quarterback. This could lead to drives stalling out and the team having to rely on the veteran leg to produce points.
Prediction/ DFS Head To Head Cash Lineup
Green Bay Packers defeat the San Francisco 49ers 34-13
- Aaron Rodgers- $16,500 *Captain*
- Davante Adams- $12,400
- Brandon Aiyuk- $8,600
- Tyler Ervin- $200
- Robbie Gould- $3,600
- JaMycal Hasty- $7,200
