DFS Cash Game Tips
The Week 13 eleven game slate doesn’t give us any spotlight games but there are a handful of game environments to work with and some plays to pull from the lopsided games to take advantage of those spots. This week has some obvious cash plays as well as some interesting ideas for smaller field Single Entry and 3-Max style tournaments. Let’s have a look.
Quarterback
For most weeks, it seems there has been a fairly solid mobile QB buried in the $5-6k area we could look to for some floor. There isn’t much in that regard this week. The top salaried QB for the main slate is Lamar Jackson ($7800), who is also the most mobile QB on the board. That game environment has some appeal for me even though Vegas has an implied total of only 44 on it. Per Sharp Football Stats, the Steelers defense has allowed 42 Explosive Runs this year, which is the third-most and they are being allowed at the second-highest rate. The Steelers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game at the highest Yards Per Att. Baltimore ranks sixth this week in NET Rush DVOA. The Ravens potentially getting Right Tackle Patrick Mekari back this week will be a boost to the run game that could take advantage of those explosive plays allowed by the Steelers defense. Other than Jackson, the only other reliable mobile QB on the slate is Jalen Hurts ($7000) who is nursing a sore ankle and may not need to do much to beat the Jets this week. Sirianni may choose to call more of the run plays for his RBs and let the defense and run game carry the team for as long as possible, which should be for the whole game. That being said, I’m a bit wary on Hurts but have him in my early week player pool. Justin Herbert ($6700) has shown some wheels lately and he’s a bit cheaper than Hurts and is in a game environment that should keep him engaged the whole way. Tom Brady ($7200) is the fourth of the “elite” QB options on the slate that I am looking at. Brady threw for FIVE touchdowns against Atlanta in Week 2. However, the Falcons defensive players is starting to grasp Dean Pees’ scheme a little more each week and could present a better challenge for Brady this week, making him more of a Single Entry/3-Max type of play.
If we’re looking at this slate and thinking we don’t feel the need to pay up so much to roster a running QB when this slate is more pocket QB heavy, then we have some interesting cheap options to work with that have just as good of a chance to throw for 300-yards and 2-3 TDs as some of their more expensive counterparts. My favorite of the lower-priced QBs this week is Derek Carr ($6000). Carr has attempted the most deep passes this season, although the Raiders offense sputtered a bit when they released deep-threat Henry Ruggs, they found a viable replacement that has got them back on track with the addition of Desean Jackson. The Raiders offensive design requires that lid-lifting presence to open up space for the rest of the players and if the shot is there, then Carr will take it. Washington’s defense has been a totally different animal coming out of their bye week, first beating Brady and the Bucs, followed by Cam and the Panthers, then Russ and the Seahawks. However, I will take my chances with Carr at home, even without Waller. This game environment looks ripe for a shootout and also gives us nice pieces to work with for late-swap action.
A bit farther down the salary sheet this week we can find Matt Ryan ($5600) and Ben Roethlisberger ($5000). The case for Matt Ryan starts with how solid he was in that first game against the Bucs. Ryan threw 46 times for 300-yards and 2TDs. The Vegas total for Atlanta is implying that the Falcons are not better than they were in Week 2, on the road versus the defending champs. They are down Ridley this time around but they’re at home and more adjusted to Arthur Smith’s system and being in a dome, there are no weather-related concerns with this one. He’s also facing a pass-funnel defense which will increase his volume. Roethlisberger is more for GPP play, and maybe 3-Max. However, his salary this week is only $5k and he will also be forced into a high volume passing game. The Ravens defense is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game and sixth-fewest DK points to RBs. Meanwhile, they are allowing the fifth-highest aDOT and third-highest Yards Per Attempt. Can Ben take advantage with his (re)tired arm? We’ll see. The Ravens have some CB injuries to monitor and if guys like Humphrey and/or Young miss this game, it will open things up even more for the Steelers passing offense.
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Running Back
Jonathan Taylor ($9200) is pretty hard to fade, especially in cash games. We should seriously consider plugging him in and working with some of the value plays elsewhere. Joe Mixon ($8100) finds himself in an almost identical game environment and one that could keep him on the field for all 60 minutes. Either of these guys represents the top two players on the slate for me this week. Moving onto the next tier, Alexander Mattison ($7600) against the Lions soft run defense makes a lot of sense. He did very well in this same spot the last time he subbed in for Dalvin Cook. Austin Ekeler ($8300) provides one of the highest floor options every week for the RB position and is in one of the better game environments for this slate. It’s the third guy I have in the second tier that I am most interested in. Antonio Gibson ($5700) is sure to be massive chalk this week but that means little when we’re looking at finding certainty in cash games. Gibson is coming off of a Monday night game in which he saw career highs in carries and receptions. Had J.D. McKissic not sniped him for two TDs Gibson would have had a career day all the way around. Since DK releases pricing on Mondays, they were not able to adjust for Gibson’s output and he is essentially our “free-square” this week. McKissic is in the concussion protocol this week and is in doubt for Sunday. Should he miss, we might be able to project a similar workload for Gibson this week as we saw him receive last week. He is also in one of the potentially explosive game environments and provides for late swap activity if needed.
In what could be a cold and wet game in a hostile environment, I’ll want to keep Eli Mitchell ($6000) on the radar this week. Like Gibson, Mitchell is coming off of a career-high workload and will be faced with finding running lanes without Deebo Samuel out there drawing attention to him. However, he is playing the same team that Gibson and McKissic just shredded and will be on a short week of rest. Mitchell was unable to play against Seattle in Week 4 and his backup (Trey Sermon) found 89 yards on the ground. With the 49ers commitment to the run, I would bet Mitchell can find more than 89 yards and his involvement as a pass-catcher last week adds another level to his game that his salary is not accounting for yet. Jamaal Williams ($5400) may see a heavy workload with Swift likely out, and with the Vikings defensive line losing three of their four starters and the fourth coming back from Covid (if he plays), we’re looking at a spot where the Lions could find similar success as San Francisco did on the ground against the Vikings and Williams could end up with the majority share of that success. The Rams RB situation is one to monitor this week. Darrell Henderson ($6100) is nursing an injury and should he miss this week, it sets up Sony Michel ($4300) as our top value play for the week.
Wide Receiver
The Wide Receiver landscape is a little rockier than usual with guys like Tyreek, Adams, Diggs, Deebo, and the Cowboys receivers unavailable. That leaves Cooper Kupp ($9000) and Justin Jefferson ($8200) as my top plays for the week. The Rams are in a game they can run the ball all day to win, so there are some concerns with Kupp hitting value at his price and Jefferson feels more like a leverage play to get off any Mattison chalk, if that even forms. This leaves me looking more at stacking receivers with the QB(s) I want to play. Mike Evans ($6700) and Chris Godwin ($6600) are easy plays to slide into a Brady or Ryan build. Diontae Johnson ($6800), Chase Claypool ($6000), and Marquise Brown ($6500) will be a part of any Jackson/Roethlisberger builds. Hunter Renfrow ($5800) and DeSean Jackson ($4200) are options in Derek Carr builds. Josh Reynolds ($3400) is starting to soak up the looks at WR in Detroit and provides a nice value play to go along with any Mattison, Jefferson, or Adam Thielen ($7300) correlated plays. The only WRs outside of the game environments I’ll likely build around that are piquing my interest will be the Cardinals guys. DeAndre Hopkins ($6200) is the cheapest he’s been all year and will face an awful (and likely disinterested) Bears secondary. The Bears are especially weak at defending slot WRs, so I’ll keep Christian Kirk ($5600) in mind as well. Finally, Jaylen Waddle ($6400) continues a string of guys coming off career days that find themselves right back in encore spots.
Tight End
Tight End seems pretty straightforward this week in a lot of the ways that the WR position does. There are only five game environments I’ll be targeting this week and will want to stack or correlate plays from those games. Rob Gronkowski ($5300) and Kyle Pitts ($5600) work for those Brady/Ryan builds. Pat Freiermuth ($4200) is n a fantastic spot to produce against a Ravens defense that has funneled a league-high 9.4 targets and the fifth-most DK Points per game to the TE position. Logan Thomas ($4000) returned from injury Monday night and played 79% of the snaps and saw 6 targets (only one behind McLaurin and Gibson’s 7 apiece). He was supposed to play limited snaps, so this is a great sign that he was healthy enough for that workload. He’ll likely be just as involved in the offensive game plan this week against the Raiders who have allowed the second-most DK points (17.7) to TEs at 8.5 targets per game (third-most). The value play at TE is Foster Moreau ($2700). Moreau filled in admirably for Waller in Week 7 by catching all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown.
Defense/Special Teams
Filling in our DST spot this week will cost a bit more than other weeks where there is an obvious pay-down play lurking about. I do not see a cheap DST I like for this slate so I’ll be looking to allocate a little more salary than I usually do to lock down one of the top two plays this week with either the Rams DST ($4000) or the Eagles DST ($3600), otherwise, the Dolphins DST ($3300) presents the best value for the slate and will probably where I settle in at the position. The others worth considering this week are the 49ers DST ($3000), the Colts DST ($3700), and the Cardinals DST ($3400).
Cash Game Core
Using the players listed above, you could construct something along these lines. However, keep in mind, I am not advising using this build. You should come to your own conclusions and build a roster you are most comfortable with for your style of play.
