Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers

By Corbin Young | December 2, 2021

Week 13 NFL Fantasy Football Sleepers

Injuries were the big storyline last week, hopefully, we have less of that in Week 13. Thankfully, the Week 13 fantasy football sleeper picks turned out better than Week 12. As usual, we’ll review the Week 12 sleeper picks and look ahead to the Week 13 sleepers based on the matchups and advanced stats. 

Quick Recap From Last Week

Through Sunday, several of the Week 12 sleeper picks looked decent. Against the Buccaneers, Carson Wentz played well with 306 passing yards, three touchdowns, and 7.0 yards per attempt on 44 attempts. Wentz added 21 rushing yards for the No. 7 quarterback heading into Monday night. 

Tyrod Taylor threw a couple of touchdown passes with one interception on 26 attempts yet 6.1 YPA. Taylor added 30 rushing yards, but it’s another ugly offensive game with 202 total yards for the Texans. I had a feeling that Week 12 might be a Tevin Coleman game, and he led the Jets with 16 rushing attempts for 67 rushing yards. Coleman finished the game with 18 total touches and added two catches for three receiving yards. Meanwhile, Ty Johnson rushed efficiently with 42 yards on six attempts, yet he hadn’t caught his lone target from Zach Wilson. The target share from Wilson versus Mike White, Joe Flacco, and Josh Johnson looked drastically different. 

Boston Scott continued the success against the Giants with a team lead of 15 carries for 64 rushing yards and one touchdown. Scott also caught two receptions for eight receiving yards. Unfortunately, Scott scored the lone Eagles touchdown in a 13-7 loss to the Giants. Van Jefferson splashed against the Packers with nine targets. However, he only hauled in three for 93 receiving yards and one touchdown. Jefferson and Matthew Stafford connected on a deep pass and broke a tackle to take the 79-touchdown catch to the house. He almost hauled in a second touchdown catch from Cooper Kupp, but Jefferson stepped out of bounds. Stock up for Jefferson as a WR3 with upside. 

Unfortunately, Elijah Moore didn’t smash, but he led the Jets with eight targets. Moore reeled in four for 46 receiving yards, but Zach Wilson hasn’t performed well in the limited 2021 sample. It looks like Moore should be the top Jets pass-catcher moving forward. As I noted last week, the Titans gave up the most receiving yards to the wide receiver position. Thankfully, Jakobi Meyers came through with 98 receiving yards on five receptions with eight targets. Unfortunately, Kendrick Bourne hauled all of Mac Jones’ touchdowns, so Meyers came up empty and short of the 100-yard mark. 

Dan Arnold injured his knee against the Falcons, so he only caught one reception for nine receiving yards. The usage from Week 8-10 looked solid, so it’s unfortunate that Arnold couldn’t bounce back in Week 12. Evan Engram couldn’t feast on the Eagles as many tight ends did in the past five weeks. The Giants offense isn’t in sync and productive right now, so Engram and the pass-catchers look risky each week. 

In a narrow win against the Seahawks, J.D. McKissic scored the two team’s touchdowns, one in the rushing and receiving game. The Seahawks have given up a ton of production to running backs with the third-most fantasy points and most receiving yards to backs. Since the Washington Football Team dominated the time of possession with over 41 minutes, they relied on the run game in Antonio Gibson. Although McKissic scored twice, he, unfortunately, took a hit, and then the cart came out for him. Early reports seem like it’s a head injury for McKissic. It’s worth adding Jaret Patterson, in case he garners more touches. 

Taylor Heinicke didn’t produce much since they relied on their run game and dominated the possession time. Heinicke didn’t destroy fantasy squads, but 223 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception with only three rushing yards don’t wow us as a sleeper or streamer. With the typical rushing ability, Heinicke should give us sleeper appeal in the coming weeks. 

Week 13 Sleepers

Derek Carr vs. WAS

The Washington Football allows the most fantasy points to the position with 23.4 per game and the 8th-most passing yards. Derek Carr posted two top-8 performances over the past three games yet solid efficiency with 8.4 yards per attempt. During those three games, Carr averaged 283 passing yards, boosted by 373 in Week 12. Overall, Carr relies on volume with the 9th-most Team Pass Plays Per Game (37.5) with the 8th-best Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (7.6). Look for Carr to put up another top-10 performance as a Week 13 quarterback sleeper. 

Tyrod Taylor vs. IND

If you have Aaron Rodgers or relied on Cam Newton, take a chance on Tyrod Taylor in Week 13 against the Colts. The Colts have forced the most turnovers at 27 in front of the Buffalo Bills and Patriots at 25 each. Taylor ranked No. 11 and No. 14 over the past two weeks, boosted by the rushing ability. Although the Colts force turnovers, they’re still allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to the position. In Week 6, Davis Mills played awful with 243 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and two picks for 8.2 (No. 27) fantasy points against the Colts. It’s a risky play with Taylor against the Colts’ defense, but hopefully, Taylor gives us the rushing floor to keep the production afloat. 

Boston Scott at NYJ

We need to monitor the Miles Sanders injury because that will impact the ceiling for Boston Scott. Although Jordan Howard missed Week 12, there’s a chance he returns in Week 13. Regardless, let’s keep this simple – the Jets give up the most fantasy points and rushing touchdowns to the position. The Jets also allow the third-most rushing yards. Even with either Sanders or Howard back, Scott should garner enough work with at least 12 carries in four out of the past five games. Scott provides efficient production as a rusher, evidenced by 4.5 (No. 15) True Yards Per Carry with a 67.3 (No. 2) Run-Blocking Efficiency. If both Sanders and Howard miss Week 13, value Scott as a high-end RB2 with upside.

Tevin Coleman vs. PHI

There’s that Star Wars scene where it goes, “It’s a trap!” That might be the case with the veteran Tevin Coleman. When Michael Carter suffered an injury in Week 11, Coleman, not Ty Johnson, garnered a higher Snap Share at 43.3% compared to Johnson’s 18.3%. Coleman ran a season-high 15 routes in Week 11 compared to Johnson’s seven. Then in Week 13 against the Texans, Coleman led the Jets with a 46.8% snap share, 16 rushing attempts, and 70 total yards. Meanwhile, Johnson received a 32.3% snap share, six carries, and 42 total yards with zero receptions. However, Johnson barely edged Coleman in routes (9-8). 

That said, Coleman serves as a Week 13 sleeper assuming the early-down rushing role remains against an Eagles defense giving up the 10th-most rushing yards to the position. There’s a chance where Johnson garners more opportunities with a negative game script against an Eagles team that should win. However, don’t sleep on Coleman, who boasts 2.5 yards after contact with a 15% evasion rate similar to Michael Carter’s 2.6 YAC and 15% evasion rate. 

Devonta Freeman at PIT

In another divisional matchup, it’s probably a close matchup like the Ravens matchup against the Browns on Sunday night. However, the Steelers’ defense isn’t great like in years past. The Steelers allow the 5th-most rushing yards and the 9th-most fantasy points to the position. In Latavius Murray’s second game back from the injury, Devonta Freeman continued to lead the Ravens backfield with a 51.4% snap share, 16 carries, and 60 total yards. 

Over the past four games, Freeman averages 13.8 carries, 13.5 routes, 3.5 targets, three receptions, and 70.3 total yards. Freeman bests Murray on the season with a 51.9 (No. 12) to 47.6 (No. 17) Run-Blocking Efficiency, which indicates Freeman uses his run blockers more effectively. Even Freeman’s 2.7 YBC compared to Murray’s 1.7 aligns with that. Look for Freeman to lead the Ravens backfield again as an RB3. 

Jaret Patterson at LV

It’s a bit riskier here with the deep-league back in Jaret Patterson. Assuming J.D. McKissic’s neck injury keeps him out, Patterson could garner more work in Week 13. Or there’s a scenario where Antonio Gibson adds more to his plate, although we’re only a few weeks removed from news of Gibson’s shin issue limiting him in practice. Although Patterson didn’t pop in any workout metrics with an 84.1 (12th-percentile) Speed Score, 109.5 (11th-percentile) Burst Score, and 11.38 (53rd-percentile) Agility Score, he boasted a 43.4% (93rd-percentile) College Dominator. In Patterson’s peak season in 2019, he totaled just under 1,800 rushing yards (1,799) with a 5.8% target share.

Take it for what it’s worth, but Patterson garnered a decent role in the rushing and receiving game in the preseason. The Raiders allow the 5th-most fantasy points to the position yet the 13th-most rushing yards. However, offenses target the Raiders defense with the 11th-most targets (83) to the running back position. Patterson serves as only a deep-league desperation sleeper with the chance to take on the role of passing downs like McKissic. 

Van Jefferson vs. JAC

Last week, we referenced Van Jefferson as a Week 12 sleeper, and he came through with one touchdown. Jefferson almost caught a second from Cooper Kupp and inches close from stepping out of bounds. He reached season highs in several categories with nine targets, 170 Air Yards, and 93 receiving yards. 

Since Week 7, Jefferson edges Kupp in Air Yards (509 – 472) and Air Yards Share (31.6% – 29.3%). However, as we noted last week, Jefferson hadn’t converted those Air Yards with a 0.627 Receiver Air Yard Conversion Rate (RACR) compared to Kupp’s 1.237. It seems the Rams want to use Jefferson in a deep-ball role with a 14.1 aDOT. The Jaguars’ defense looks sneaky solid with the 13th-most receiving yards and the 19th-most rushing yards to the receiving position. However, they allow the 4th-highest net yards per attempt. Look for the Rams to bounce back after three straight losses and value Jefferson as WR3 with upside. 

Christian Kirk at CHI

Some of Christian Kirk‘s value depends on DeAndre Hopkins’ availability. Hopkins hasn’t played since Week 8, but he put in a limited practice session while dealing with a hamstring issue. Surprisingly, Kirk isn’t as inconsistent with an average of 14.5 fantasy points in five out of the past seven games. Although the season-long usage doesn’t look great with a 17.7% (No. 48) target share and 24.5% (No. 49) Air Yards Share, Kirk performed efficiently with 10.3 (No. 12) yards per target and 2.19 (No. 24) Yards Per Route Run. 

Kirk also ranks 9th with a +12.8 Production Premium and 9th with 51.6 Expected Points Added (EPA). The Bears allow the 9th-most receiving yards and the 5th-most fantasy points. Kirk ranks as a Week 13 sleeper in the WR3 range even when Hopkins returns, given the recent consistency. Throughout the entire season, Kirk looks like the most consistent and efficient receiver for the Cardinals. 

T.Y. Hilton at HOU

We’re going with the historical narrative here since T.Y. Hilton typically feasts on the Texans. Throughout Hilton’s career with the Colts, he averages over 18 fantasy points per game against the Texans compared to under 13 points per game. Hilton averages more targets, receptions, and receiving yards with an average of 5.3 targets and 94.6 receiving yards per game.

In Week 6 against the Texans, Carson Wentz barely needed to throw with only 20 pass attempts. However, in Hilton’s first game in 2021, he reeled in all four targets for 80 receiving yards. Look for that trend to continue for Hilton even though he averages an awful 6.9 fantasy points per game in five games played in 2021. 

Foster Moreau vs. WAS

In Week 7, with Darren Waller sidelined, Foster Moreau caught all six targets for 60 receiving yards and one touchdown. Moreau ranked 4th at the position that week against an Eagles defense, allowing the most receptions and receiving yards. As of Wednesday, Waller hasn’t practiced, and the Raiders him listed as doubtful for their matchup against the Washington Football Team (WFT). Although the WFT only allows 8.0 (No. 15) fantasy points to the position, Gerald Everett just reeled in five of nine targets for 37 receiving yards and one touchdown. Moreau should slide into the Waller role as a touchdown-dependent sleeper in Week 13. 

Jack Doyle at HOU

It feels gross recommending Jack Doyle as a Week 13 sleeper. However, Doyle averages 5.7 targets, four receptions, and 47.3 receiving yards, with a season-high 81 in Week 12 against Tampa Bay. Doyle ranks 12th with 1.89 fantasy points per target and looks quite efficient with 24.4 (No. 13) EPA. The Texans allow the 6th-most fantasy points to the position, but Doyle lacks the upside of Moreau, so value Doyle as a touchdown-dependent streamer in Week 13. 

Corbin Young
Corbin is passionate about fantasy baseball and football. He loves diving into and learning about advanced metrics. Corbin is a Mariners and Seahawks fan living in the Pacific Northwest. Corbin's other hobbies are lifting weights, cooking, and listening to fantasy sports podcasts.
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