Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 12
With the holiday weekend and three games on Thursday, we’ll highlight players as Week 12 fantasy football sleepers playing over the weekend. The high-powered offenses in Kansas City and Arizona have their byes in Week 12, so fantasy managers may have to dig a bit deeper into the player pool. Do we dare turn to Jets running backs? Go back to the well with Dan Arnold after zeroes across the board? We’ll review Week 11 and look ahead to the Week 12 sleeper picks.
Last Week Sleeper Review
Against the Jets, Tua Tagovailoa gave us the 13th ranked quarterback performance with 273 passing yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns with one interception. We have a couple of tough matchups for Tagovailoa in the Panthers and Giants coming up, but he’s a solid streamer moving forward. Unfortunately, Justin Fields stunk before the injury with 11 passing attempts, 79 passing yards, and no touchdowns or interceptions. Fields rushed for 23 yards, but somehow Andy Dalton lucked into 201 passing yards and two long touchdowns to Darnell Mooney and Marquise Goodwin. The ribs injury comes with poor timing for Fields since he played well in recent weeks.
With Miles Sanders back, the Eagles used another running back. However, the team used Jordan Howard, not Boston Scott. Jalen Hurts also garnered a team-high 18 rushing attempts, with Sanders (16) and Howard (10) combining for 26 carries. Scott led the backfield in rushing yards, rushing attempts, and snap-share the past three weeks, but the Eagles went in another direction. Of course, the Falcons used Qadree Ollison to lead the team with nine carries for 34 rushing yards. However, without Cordarrelle Patterson, it showed us that fantasy managers should stay away from all Falcons not named Patterson or Kyle Pitts.
From Week 8-10, Elijah Moore totaled the 7th-most fantasy points amongst receivers between Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb. Moore 📈📈📈
Side note – during that span, Moore has the lowest WOPR at 0.355. The next closest receiver in WOPR – Michael Pittman at 0.52. #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/tMJ1CsmiUP
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 21, 2021
Ty Johnson stunk in Week 11 as the Jets led by Joe Flacco kept it close up until the fourth quarter. Elijah Moore soaked up the production in Week 11, and the Dolphins defense held the Jets’ running backs in check. I expected a bit more of a negative game script and check-downs to the backs, but Flacco went the more efficient route with the receivers. Michael Carter suffered an ankle injury, which means Johnson moves up into the RB3 or flex spot as they face the Texans in Week 12.
Dontrell Hilliard earned a 19.2% target share in Week 11. Only Jeremy McNichols garnered a higher target share amongst Titans’ backs in any game. McNichols boasted a 24% share in Week 4.
With no Derrick Henry, this backfield remains frustrating. pic.twitter.com/acgdoy66nk
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 22, 2021
As expected, the Titans lost to the Texans and didn’t score until the third quarter. That’s not a typo. The Texans used a winning formula of 62 plays for 190 total yards. Meanwhile, the Titans ran 79 plays for 420 yards, but they gave up five turnovers. Without Jeremy McNichols, the Titans used Dontrell Hilliard, who led the team with ten total targets. That said, D’Onta Foreman once again chipped into the dreaded three-back committee. Overall, a terrible week with the Week 11 sleeper picks at running back.
The Ravens ruled out Lamar Jackson with an illness, plus Marquise Brown missed Week 11. That said, the Ravens’ offense squeaked out a close win against the Bears, and unfortunately, Rashod Bateman didn’t feast with three receptions on six targets for 29 receiving yards. With a backup quarterback in Tyler Huntley, that adjusted the game plan and passing expectations. However, the Brandon Aiyuk revival happened with an efficient game hauling all seven targets for 85 receiving yards and a score.
Brandon Aiyuk finds the endzone on 3rd and goal.pic.twitter.com/rrpjgEkUPI
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 21, 2021
Jamal Agnew suffered an injury, and like the Falcons, we don’t want to start more than one Jaguars player in James Robinson. Avoid the rest of the Jaguars now – lesson learned. For the Steelers, Chase Claypool played and performed well with 93 receiving yards, and they fed Claypool and Diontae Johnson in the passing game. With that, James Washington and even Pat Freiermuth took a backseat.
Fortunately, Adam Trautman finished as the fourth-best tight end in Week 11 with 16.8 PPR fantasy points. The TE barrage against the Eagles continued. On the downside, Trautman suffered a sprained MCL, so he’ll miss 4-6 weeks, according to Adam Schefter. Yikes, three out of 11 sleeper picks went well in Week 11. Let’s hope to turn that around over the holiday weekend, although we might have a wild ride to kick off Week 12 with the Bears and Lions.
Week 12 Sleepers
Carson Wentz vs. TB
It’s a risky play with Carson Wentz, who came off back-to-back performances totaling 17.1 fantasy points. In six games before that, Wentz averaged 20.4 fantasy points, yet 251 passing yards per game. Wentz relied on touchdowns, with 14 of his 18 coming during that six-game stretch. Since the Buccaneers typically play with a lead, their defense allows the fourth-most pass attempts, yet they rank middle of the pack with 243.7 passing yards per game (No. 16).
In Week 10, Taylor Heinicke threw for 256 and one passing touchdowns. Heinicke added 15 rushing yards too. Then in Week 9, the Saints quarterbacks combined for 215 passing yards and two touchdowns. Both weeks, the Buccaneers defense didn’t record an interception. However, the week prior, they picked off Justin Fields three times. Expect Wentz to pass for 240-250 passing yards with 1-2 touchdowns while chipping in 10-20 rushing yards. Let’s see if the efficiency maintains with the 13-best Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (7.3) and +97.3 (No. 9) Expected Points Added.
Taylor Heinicke vs. SEA
The past two weeks, Taylor Heinicke boasted efficient passing production with 8.5 yards per attempt. However, it came with four touchdowns and 231 passing yards per game. Heinicke sneakily provides a rushing floor of 27.6 rushing yards per game that adds to his value as a Week 12 sleeper. The Seahawks allow the third-most passing yards per game at 279.6 with the 12th-highest adjusted yards per attempt (7.5). Oh, and they just gave up 328 passing yards and two touchdowns to Colt McCoy. Heinicke serves as a top-15 option with QB1 upside in Week 12.
Tyrod Taylor vs. NYJ
In Tyrod Taylor‘s second game back from the injury, he scored two rushing touchdowns on the ground. Taylor finished with 19.1 (No. 11) fantasy points due to the rushing touchdowns. However, Taylor only tossed 107 passing yards with 4.5 yards per attempt. The rainy weather in the Texans and Titans game in Week 11 likely impacted the passing game, but we expect Taylor to provide the rushing production.
The Jets allow the most passing yards per game (282.2) and the highest adjusted yards per attempt (9.0). Even though we’re relying on Tyrod Taylor for the rushing production, he could produce efficiently in Week 12. Week 12 gives us a matchup with two struggling offenses in the Jets and Texans, but Taylor should finish as a top-15 option.
Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman at HOU
Do we dare go back to the well with Ty Johnson? Knowing my luck, Tevin Coleman will come out from the grave and put up an RB2 performance. In four games (Week 5-9), Johnson averaged 14.1 fantasy points with added involvement in the receiving game. In Week 5-9, Johnson garnered an 11% target share, 15 receptions, and the 6th-most receiving yards (198). Michael Carter stole the show as he emerged as an RB2, but that changes with Carter injured.
Johnson should serve as the Jets’ third-down back with involvement in the two-minute drills. It’s worth noting his receiving efficiency with 10.8 (No. 3) yards per reception and 1.99 (No. 10) yards per route run amongst qualified backs. We don’t expect Johnson to take on most of the work, so he’ll need to continue his efficiency. Surprisingly, Johnson’s overall efficiency gives us optimism with 6.2 (No. 5) yards per touch and 4.21 (No. 3) yards created per touch.
It’s an intriguing list of players inside the top-10 in both yards per touch and yards created per touch. The players in green sit in the top-10 on both lists.
With Carter injured in Week 11, Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman split the snaps and opportunity. Johnson finished with an 18.3% snap share, one carry, seven routes, and 13 total yards. Meanwhile, Coleman ended up with a 43.3% snap share, five carries, 15 routes, and 18 total yards.
Advanced stats for Jets running backs:
YBC ➡️ YAC ➡️ Evasion%
👊Michael Carter (111 att)
1.3 ➡️ 2.6 ➡️ 17%📈Ty Johnson (42 att)
1.3 ➡️ 2.2 ➡️ 10%👀Tevin Coleman (30 att)
1.3 ➡️ 2.6 ➡️ 17%#FantasyFootball— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 25, 2021
In Week 11, Coleman saw his highest snap share and routes ran. The Texans allow the second-most rushing yards to opposing backs (117.1 per game) with the 7th-most fantasy points per game. Expect Coleman to take on the early-down work with production like Jordan Howard, where he averaged 12.8 carries and 68.5 rushing yards per game. Interestingly, Coleman’s profile looks similar to Carter’s with 2.6 yards after contact and a 17% evasion rate.
J.D. McKissic vs. SEA
Typically J.D. McKissic eats up production with a negative game script. The Seahawks allow the 7th-most targets and receptions to the running back position yet the most receiving yards (726). That’s where McKissic feasts. If the Washington Football Team plays with a lead, then look for Antonio Gibson to dominate the rushing attempts with an 81.1% rush share combined over the past two weeks. McKissic should finish as a solid flex option given the receiving efficiency evidenced by the 9.8 (No. 6) yards per reception and 2.07 (No. 9) yards per route run.
Boston Scott at NYG
Let’s go back to the well with Jordan Howard out. Boston Scott faces the Giants, who he historically plays well. In four games over the past two seasons, Scott averages 11 carries, 53 rushing yards, 4.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 52.5 receiving yards. The Giants allow the 7th-most rushing yards and the 8th-most fantasy points to the position. Miles Sanders will share some rushing production but look for Scott as a Week 12 sleeper at running back.
In 4 games over the past 2 seasons, Boston Scott avg 11 carries, 53 rushing yards, 4.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, & 52.5 receiving yards vs. NYG.
Miles Sanders played in 3 of those games. Sanders avg 13 carries, 60.7 rush yards, 5 targets, 3 receptions, & 11 receiving yards. pic.twitter.com/BbAEXfhKQW
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 25, 2021
Van Jefferson at GB
Heading into their bye week, Van Jefferson averaged just under seven targets (6.75) with 3.25 receptions and 56.5 receiving yards. If you believe in Air Yards, then have faith in Jefferson. From Week 7-10, Jefferson totaled 341 Air Yards (No. 11) between CeeDee Lamb and Jaylen Waddle. Jefferson ranked 24th with a 29.2% Air Yards Share yet only a 16.5% target share.
From Week 7-10, Van Jefferson totaled 341 Air Yards (No. 11) & ranked 24th with a 29.2% AY Share yet only a 16.5% target share.
Unfortunately, Jefferson hasn’t converted many Air Yards with a 0.655 Receiver Air Yard Conversion Rate (RACR).
🤔Positive regression incoming? pic.twitter.com/V7vhbElXzJ
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 25, 2021
Unfortunately, Jefferson hasn’t converted many Air Yards with a 0.655 Receiver Air Yard Conversion Rate (RACR). For context, Jefferson’s 12.8 average depth of target (aDOT) aligns with the air yards and role in the offense. Cooper Kupp boasts a 1.281 RACR with a 32.3% Air Yards Share and 381 total Air Yards. Positive regression should eventually favor Jefferson since Matthew Stafford rates as one of the most efficient quarterbacks, evidenced by 8.3 (No. 2) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and a 40.5% (No. 11) Deep-Ball Completion%.
Elijah Moore at HOU
With three weeks of data, Elijah Moore will make it four. The one caveat, Zach Wilson will start in Week 12. Oddly, Joe Flacco, Josh Johnson, and Mike White helped boost the receiving options in Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, and Elijah Moore. Over the past four weeks, Elijah Moore totaled the fourth-most fantasy points in PPR leagues behind Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Tyreek Hill. Interestingly, Moore’s .421 WOPR ranks the lowest amongst the top-12 in fantasy points over the past four weeks. That means Moore’s target and air yards share hasn’t rated highly compared to the top group of receivers.
Over the past four weeks, Elijah Moore totaled the fourth-most fantasy points in PPR leagues behind Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Tyreek Hill. Interestingly, Moore’s .421 WOPR ranks the lowest amongst the top-12 in fantasy points over the past four weeks. Overall, Moore 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/5qgEn7LT3N
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 25, 2021
On a positive note, Moore produced as a WR1 in two out of the past four weeks. He also reached a season-high 11 targets plus the highest snap share (80%) since Week 1. However, the opportunity and production never reached their peak like in recent weeks. Let’s hope Zach Wilson and Jets involve their best receiver in Moore against a Texans defense that allows the sixth-most receiving yards to the position.
Jakobi Meyers vs. TEN
On the season, Jakobi Meyers ranks 21st with 23.7% target share and 34th with 28.8% Air Yards Share. The tricky part with Meyers involves the team passing volume since the Patriots average 32.6 (No. 23) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Facing a struggling Titans team, who allows the most receiving yards to the position at 200.1 per game, Meyers should post a solid yardage game. The Titans also allow a league-leading 265 targets and 170 receptions, so it’s a fantasy-friendly matchup for Patriots receivers. We’ll see if the Patriots take advantage of the matchup since they leaned on the run, which led to Mac Jones averaging 190.5 passing yards and 7.47 yards per attempt over the past four games.
Dan Arnold vs. ATL
After three games where Dan Arnold averaged eight targets, 5.7 receptions, and 65 receiving yards, he finished with zeroes against the 49ers. However, the 49ers allow the fewest receiving yards to the position with 29.4 yards per game. Sure, there’s some noise with defense against the tight end position, but it seems the 49ers project looks like a tough matchup.
In Week 8-10, Dan Arnold ranked 6th with 21.9% target share, 9th with an 18.5% air yards share, and 2nd in receiving yards (195) behind Travis Kelce.
The 49ers have shut down opposing tight ends, so look for Arnold to bounce back in Week 12. pic.twitter.com/ZUuX0OHLZa
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 25, 2021
Arnold still boasted a 70.5% snap share with 22 routes in Week 11, similar to previous weeks. Look for a bounceback against the Falcons for Arnold. Although Arnold plays the tight end position, he ranks eighth with 148 snaps in the slot. That said, if we look at the receiver matchups against the Falcons, they allow the eighth-most fantasy points. They don’t allow many receiving yards (seventh-fewest), but the Falcons allowed the second-most touchdowns to the receiver position.
Evan Engram vs. PHI
The Eagles keep giving up receiving production and fantasy points to the tight end position. Adam Trautman provides another week of evidence with five receptions on eight targets for 58 receiving yards and one touchdown. Look for Evan Engram to continue that trend in Week 12 since the Eagles have allowed 7.6 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 78.2 receiving yards per game.
