DFS Cash Game Tips
As I start this article on Thursday afternoon, there is not a lot of clarity regarding which players may be activated from the Covid list and there have been a heap of recent injuries to add even more uncertainty. I’ll probably end up circling back to this on Saturday with some updates. For now, the state of the slate is among the worst of this season. There are three out of the 11 possible games with an implied total greater than 45 points. Six of the 11 spreads are greater than a touchdown. Lots of low-scoring, lopsided games with no beckoning game environments demanding we stack around them. That said, let’s have a look at what we can do.
Quarterback
Quarterback is thin again this week but we do have a few of the mobile guys on the slate to rely on for some floor. Kyler Murray ($7900) may be sharing the backfield with 3rd and 4th string running backs and has lost DeAndre Hopkins for the foreseeable future. If Conner or Edmonds can’t go, it’s possible Kingsbury just leans into the passing game in this spot and allows Murray to scramble around for yards if they set the defense up for that. The Lions can be beaten by the deep ball, which gives Murray some ceiling to go with his rushing floor. If they can set the defense up to play back to defend the deep ball, then Murray will be able to pick up chunks of yards on the ground or through the air. Jalen Hurst ($6600) isn’t throwing as much as he used to since Sirianni shifted the offense to a “run-more/throw-less” style starting in Week 8. Since then, Hurts has attempted just 21.8 passes per game and run the ball 11.2 times. Before that Lions game Hurst was passing 34.6 times per game and running 9.4 times. Hurts gives us the best chance at a high rushing floor and multiple rushing TDs and with the injuries and Covid-related issues on the other side of the ball, he may be able to pick the Washington defense apart after the extra week of rest to heal his ankle and recalibrate in the offense.
The QB most likely to have to continue to push on the gas might be Aaron Rodgers ($7500). He’ll travel to Baltimore to face a secondary that recently lost their top cornerback and is dealing with injuries all over their defense. The Ravens run defense has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game and have the lowest Adjusted Line Yards metric on Football Outsiders. As long as Baltimore can keep this game competitive, Rodgers will be firing away against a defense that has allowed the highest Yards Per Completion (12.3) at the fifth-highest aDOT (8.6) and the fourth-highest Yards After Catch per game (142.0). Baltimore is one of seven teams that have allowed eight multi-TD passing games, which are the most in the league. I’ll have some interest in the QB on the other side of this game for GPP/tournament play because the Packers should be able to force aggression from the Ravens’ passing game, too. As weird as this sounds, I’m slightly more interested in Tyler Huntley ($5400) than Lamar Jackson ($7200). Huntley has thrown 36 and 38 times in his two extended outings and completed 72% and 71% of his passes, all while running 7 and 6 times for 40 and 45 yards. Huntley would set up for the better price-considered score and allow us to get to some of the higher-priced receivers on the slate.
**SATURDAY UPDATE: Hurts is off the main slate now with the postponement of that game. I’m sticking with Rodgers as my top choice for QB this week in cash games. I’ve come around on Dak Prescott ($6500) as well. Murray is a bit pricy and with the top 2 RBs questionable or better, I’m less excited about playing him.
Running Back
The RB position is a disaster this week with all the injuries and Covid protocols. James Conner ($6400) is in one of the best spots against the Lions run defense, especially if Chase Edmonds ($5100) isn’t ready to return. This could give us a solid cheap RB play with Eno Benjamin ($4400) if both of these guys miss the game. I’d like to use D’Andre Swift ($6300) as Goff’s check-down weapon but he’s been out for the past few weeks with no indication he is set to return, yet. Eli Mitchell ($6200) is the 49ers bell-cow, when healthy. Is he ready to come back? If so, he’s a top 5 play and a fantastic price-considered option this week. I’m not as bullish on Jeff Wilson ($5000) to play the same role because we haven’t seen him fully healthy yet. The defense to attack whenever we see them on a slate is the Jets but the Dolphins’ top-3e RBs are on the Covid list. Myles Gaskin ($5600) was a bit of a let-down in this spot the last time around but this week Miami is coming off of a bye week and if he’s all they have, he’s among the best options on this slate. If Gaskins is out and Phillip Lindsay ($4600) is available, then he’s very interesting at that salary as a guy fighting for his career (he was cut from Houston, ouch) in the tastiest of matchups to resurrect himself in. There is a chance Malcolm Brown ($4000) returns this week and he would be very interesting if he’s the only one of the top-4 RBs to play. The RB I would guess most people are eyeing will be the recently emancipated James Robinson ($5400). The Jaguars have the fourth-worst Net Passing DVOA matchup but the fifth-best Net Adjusted Line Yards matchup and the second-best “RB Rushing Points” matchup for the week. Without Meyer messing with the offense, we should see Robinson get going again, assuming he’s healthy enough (heel/knee).
One of the most interesting things I am finding on this slate is the lack of “pay-up” RBs to go after. Najee is in a bad spot unless he sees 19 targets again, Mixon was crushing that string of soft run defense he was facing but his schedule has hardened up. Aside from Ezekiel Elliott ($7300), all the other RBs are below $7k. Of the three that are $7k or more, I’m liking Zeke the most. The Giants have been stingy with rushing TDs but the rest of the metrics look pretty solid for Zeke. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most DK points to the RB position, the Cowboys have the sixth-best Net Rushing DVOA matchup, and they have the top Net Adjusted Line Yards matchup. Still, with his knee injury and the possible return of Tony Pollard, he’s not a smash play – but there really aren’t any of those anyway. If injuries and Covid stuff open up cheaper RBs with similar workloads, we can ignore Zeke, except for in GPP/tourney play where we’re looking for ownership leverage. Sony Michel ($5800) might fall somewhere in between Zeke and the cheap options that may emerge and provide another option. He’ll need Henderson to remain on the Covid list to fill that value. D’Onta Foreman ($5200) looks interesting at his salary. If the Titans can play their game, which is to run the ball as much as they can, and the Steelers are still unable to stop opposing rushing attacks, then we could see the Titans put up 30-35 rush attempts with Foreman handling 20 (or more) of them. Foreman has a 100-yard bonus and a touchdown in his range of outcomes this week.
**SATURDAY UPDATE: James Robinson and Myles Gaskin are in the top spots for me at RB at this point. With Chase Edmonds getting activated, I like his chances at being leaned on more to relieve James Conner from his heavy-load the past few weeks and because of Hopkins going on IR. The matchup is favorable against the Lions and he could catch enough passes to keep his floor raised.
Wide Receiver
The top two WR plays this week are Cooper Kupp ($9000) and Davante Adams ($8900) and these two are likely where I’ll start my roster construction for cash games. We’ve already discussed the Packers and the way that game sets them up for more passing, and with Cobb and Tonyan on IR, Adams is the last of the receivers in Rodger’s circle of trust. They will scheme Adams open all game for as long as they need to. Seattle has allowed the third-most Slot WR targets in the league and the fifth-most Slot WR PPR points for the main slate. If OBJ isn’t able to get off the Covid list, the Rams targets will be concentrated on Kupp, Van Jefferson ($5600), and Tyler Higbee ($4000). Kupp has commanded 10+ targets in every game and Seattle has no one to stop him.
If not paying up for Kupp or Adams, there are a bunch of receivers in the tier below that deserve our attention. CeeDee Lamb ($7400) has played 42 and 45 of his snaps over the last two games in the slot. With the Giants recently losing slot corner Darnay Holmes to IR, they’ve been splitting Logan Ryan’s reps as the nickel corner and free safety making him an easy target for opposing offenses. The two games since Holmes went out of the line-up have seen the Giants allow 17.1 and 23.0 PPR points to Slot WRs. Jaylen Waddle ($6600) could help make up for the lack of RB depth by being an extension of the run game as a pass-catcher in the slot. The Cardinals will be without Hopkins for a couple of weeks (at least) leaving A.J. Green ($4900) and Christian Kirk ($5300) to soak up the field stretching targets against a defense that has been repeatedly burnt by the deep ball. Brandin Cooks ($5800) was moved into the slot last week as the Texans tried to find a way to get their best receiver the ball. Cooks saw 11 targets, catching eight of them for 101-yards. If this new role sticks, it should help him produce like that moving forward. It’s also interesting to see Nico Collins ($3500) with 10 targets last week. Fellow rookie Davis Mills is back at QB and they might have built some rapport going through rookie camp and practicing on the second team offense together. It’s not the worst way to spend $3500 this week if we need to save some salary for the big dogs. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5200) is starting to carve out a reliable role with the Lions as he’s seen 12 targets in each of the past two games scoring 15.3 and 24.8. With so many injuries to the skill position players, this type of volume should continue and his salary is still very modest for this role.
**SATURDAY UPDATE: Rams are off the main slate leaving Davante Adams as the top WR for Sunday. Lamb and Diontae Johnson are my next two favorite plays. DeVante Parker ($4300) getting cleared opens up some salary relief with Waddle now on the Covid list. Gabriel Davis ($3700) is also cheap and will be on the field a lot more this week with Sanders out. Marvin Jones ($4600) is another cheaper play to consider.
Tight End
If Eli Mitchell is out, then George Kittle ($7500) should continue to be the primary focus of the 49ers offensive attack. I mentioned Tyler Higbee ($4000) in the WR section, and I really like his potential bump in targets if OBJ is out. Zach Ertz ($5400) is also interesting depending on the RB situation in Arizona this week.
**SATURDAY UPDATE: Higbee is off the main slate. Kittle is still the top TE and I’m less excited about Ertz with the RB situation looking better. Mark Andrews ($6400) and Mike Gesicki ($5000) are now my second and third choice at the position.
Defense/Special Teams
I’ll likely be looking for value at the DST spot this week so I can get both Kupp and Adams in. Two of the better choices in the mid-value area are the Bills DST ($3100) against the Panther clunky offense and the 49ers DST ($3100) against the Falcons. With the cheapest DST this week being $2400, the Panthers DST ($2400) is on my list as a punt. Perhaps they can do something similar to what Jacksonville did to the Bills a few weeks back. The Panther have talent on defense. The Jaguars DST ($2800) seems like a solid bet from the remaining “cheap” defenses to grab a few sacks against the Texans.
**SATURDAY UPDATE: All these defenses still stand for me. The Panthers DST ($2400) are one of the healthier teams in the league and are the cheapest defense on the slate. I won’t mind punting with them if I need to.
Cash Game Core
Using the players listed above, you could construct something along these lines. However, keep in mind, I am not advising using this build. You should come to your own conclusions and build a roster you are most comfortable with for your style of play. NOTE: I might have a new roster here on Saturday, once there is more clarity (hopefully) for this slate.
