DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 10
The NFL Week 10 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With nine weeks’ worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 9 Results
Below are my cash game results in Week 9 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 8/2298
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 19/4597
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 44/8620
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 47/11494
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 78/17241
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 3/459
Week 9 cash games on DraftKings really came down to a difficult 2v2 question assuming you played all the best plays for the value in your other positions. With several players worth spending up on, Justin Fields was the clear choice at quarterback. Rhamondre Stevenson and Travis Etienne were too cheap for the bell-cow role they would both have. Foster Moreau was a cheap play with a lot of route participation after Darren Waller was ruled out. Josh Palmer at $5,100 was a lock with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out. And the defense is just what fit when you were finished with the rest of your roster.
That means the choice was Austin Ekeler and Chris Godwin versus Joe Mixon and Tyreek Hill. If you played the Mixon side, you ended up like I did, finishing near the top of every contest you played. If you played the Ekeler side, you finished with 161.62 points and likely chopped the winnings with a long train of other people. In the Massive $25 Double Up, the Ekeler-team train started at position #490 and lasted past the cash cut line at spot #1000. Those teams won only $35 on their $25 they invested.
I was very happy with both sides, but in the end I was much more comfortable with the passing role and production from Tyreek Hill than I was with Chris Godwin. Godwin keeps getting double-digit targets, but his yards per reception are way down this year and the Tampa Bay offense is downright awful. Hill is having a historic season and, while Mixon won’t get as many receptions as Ekeker, he is certain to get as many total touches. That swayed me to the Mixon side and ended up being the right call in the end.
Week 10 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($7,900) is the cash game spend up this week with Josh Allen’s injury uncertainty and Kyler Murray in a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Mahomes has been doing regular Mahomes things his last four games, scoring more than 30 DraftKings points in three of them (and 24 in the other). Against Jacksonville, he is just too cheap for the matchup. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most passing yards this season to opposing quarterbacks and Kansas City now has the third-highest passing rate in the league (653% of their plays).
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Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700) is on a three game streak of at least 30 pass attempts, at least 21 completions, and at least 260 yards per game. He has seven passing touchdowns to zero interceptions in that span and is averaging 315 passing yards per contest. But the best part about him playing Cleveland at home this week is that his $6,700 salary did not change after 27 DK points last week. For $200 less, I’m probably going back to the Justin Fields well in Week 10, but Tua and the Dolphins have been chucking lately – almost 63% of the time on the season.
Justin Fields ($6,500) could have passed for zero yards and zero touchdowns in Week 9 and still come away with 28.8 DK points. That’s because he ran for a regular-season record 179 yards plus a score in addition to his 123 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. His 45.72 DK points were a career-high and far and away the most by a quarterback on the slate last week. He is getting multiple designed runs per game now, will have a fully-up-to-speed Chase Claypool, and gets the league’s worst defense in Detroit this week. No real reason to look elsewhere on Sunday.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,600) is your most expensive running back on the week, outpacing Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. And he gets the $8,600 tag not because he is currently out-producing those guys, but rather because he has the best possible matchup at home against the lowly Houston Texans. The Texans allow three more DK points to running backs per game than any other team. They are the worst in yards allowed, touchdowns allowed, rushing first downs allowed, and a myriad other statistics. Barkley’s price may have shot past $8,000, but he looks to be worth it in this matchup.
Travis Etienne ($7,100) is just basically doing uncanny things right now. Just when I thought the usage couldn’t get any higher after 27 touches in Week 8, he comes out with 30 touches in Week 9, good for two scores and 29.6 DK points. These past three games are basically what guys like Barkley and Christian McCaffrey have done at their peaks, and we still are getting Etienne for just above $7,000. You can guarantee that Jacksonville will want to use as much of the clock against Mahomes and the Chiefs this week, so Etienne should be plenty busy. The Chiefs allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including the most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards. In a high-scoring game, the Jaguars are projected to trail, this sets up as the perfect spot for Etienne.
Dameon Pierce ($6,300) shares the field with Saquon Barkley this week and is seeing just about as much usage for $2,300 less. Pierce has not seen less than 20 opportunities (rush attempts + targets) since Week 2 and is averaging 18.0 PPR points per game since that streak started in Week 3. Part of this success is due to the usage, but part of it is Pierce is evolving into an important role as the back Houston uses at the goal line. Only eight running backs have more than Pierce’s 21 rush attempts inside the red zone, but those touches have only turned into two scores, the fewest in the top 14. With some touchdown luck on his side, Pierce could start seeing more end zone spikes as soon as this week.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill ($9,100) finally gets the salary bump we have been waiting for considering he is basically peak Cooper Kupp and peak Jerry Rice all in one player this season. He torched the Bears for another 143 yards, one touchdown, and 30.3 DK points last week. Overall the Browns are just middle-of-the-pack against wide receivers this year, but they do allow the fifth-highest opponents’ yards per completion (11.1 yards) in 2022. You may have heard this before, but Tyreek Hill has a knack for catching long passes. His yards per reception have been over 10 for four weeks in a row. Sounds like a match made in heaven for Hill.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900) has certainly seen the right level of opportunity since he returned from injury, but it’s the level of consistency and efficiency that has been missing. Ten and nine targets in his last two games are elite, and he has a crazy 83% of his team’s air yards against the Packers last week. The Bears have been giving up fantasy points to anyone with a Wide Receiver designation on the depth chart lately. In the last three weeks, they have the 31st-ranked yards per completion allowed (12.4 yards) and the 25th-ranked completion percentage allowed (69.4%). With T.J. Hockenson gone, and Josh Reynolds and DJ Chark still hurt, this is going to be the St. Brown show the rest of the year.
Christian Kirk ($5,900) should probably be above $6,000 in this projected shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs, but we will take the discount given the recent production. Kirk has 26 targets, 212 yards, and a touchdown in his last three games. Kirk leads the Jaguars in target share over that span but he is also seeing the most valuable targets on the team. Kirk has moved up to seventh among all wide receivers with 11 red zone targets this year, tied with guys like Cooper Kupp and A.J. Brown. Relying on Trevor Lawrence has been a dicey proposition lately, but Kirk is the pass-catcher you want if you think this game hits the over.
Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,300) and his salary will be an interesting case study this week. Despite some good performances and usage, DPJ remains at $4,300 because of a heavy rushing attack deployed by the Browns and because Jacoby Brissett is still under center. Next week, Deshaun Watson returns and I’m interested to see what his presence does to their receivers. But even with Brissett throwing passes, Peoples-Jones is too cheap this week. He has 12 DK points in four of his last five games and at least 70 yards in those four games as well. He has no touchdowns, but that should regress positively soon. Against a Miami secondary that was just walloped by the Bears, this is a good week for DPJ as a cheap wideout.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($7,800) is back on the main slate and appears to be slightly too cheap for his last five games’ worth of production. He has more than 20 DK points in four of his last five, including 53 targets and four games of at least 90 receiving yards. We already know that Mahomes is an elite option this week, so it stands to reason that his number-one pass-catcher would be as well. Jacksonville has only allowed one touchdown to tight ends this year, but I will bet my paycheck that goes up this week. No other tight end is within $2,500 of Kelce.
T.J. Hockenson ($5,300) is that tight end within $2,500 of Kelce, coming off a week where he had surprisingly great usage in his first game on the Minnesota Vikings. His nine receptions were more than any other game this season and his nine targets were second-most. Kirk Cousins is quite a fan of throwing to tight ends and with Adam Thielen getting old and not much production coming from K.J. Osborn. Hockenson has the opportunity to keep up this big role. With not much value on the slate, however, Hockenson doesn’t neatly fit into mid-range builds.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400) looks like the best cheap tight end option even though his salary went up by $1,000 over his last two games. But that’s what happens when you earn 14 targets, 138 receiving yards, and back-to-back games over 11 DK points. In his last two weeks played, Dulcich is top-three in air yards among all tight ends on that slate.
Defense/Special Teams
Arizona DST ($2,700) could be facing a Los Angeles Rams team without Matthew Stafford (injury), which would immediately give a huge boost to their pass-rush and potential for interceptions. Even in three shootouts the last three weeks, the Cardinals averaged almost 11 DK points per game, primarily because their defensive line has been able to create pressure and get the opponent for five sacks.
Minnesota DST ($2,200) looks a lot more appealing if we get Case Keenum instead of Josh Allen in Week 10, so monitor that injury news before Sunday. But in a vacuum, the Vikings have been a good place regardless the last three weeks. They average almost 10 DK points per game and have an astounding 13 sacks in that three-week stretch. As the bottom-of-the-barrel defense this week, this is exactly what we are looking for to make the rest of the roster work.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. As I mess around with builds on Friday, roster construction is tight and tough this week. There are no real punt-value plays outside of Tight End and Defense. I am hoping something opens up at running back or wide receiver over the weekend so I fit in either Barkley or Hill in this lineup.