DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 13
The NFL Week 13 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With twelve weeks’ worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Quick Links
Week 12 Results
Below are my cash game results in Week 12 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 555/6896
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 269/3448
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 436/5747
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 548/6896
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 359/4597
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 874/11494
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 194/2873
The Week 12 plays were fairly straightforward for about half of DraftKings lineups on Sunday. Everyone had Rachaad White, Jeff Wilson, and the Chiefs defense. Half of the teams had Geno Smith at quarterback and Keenan Allen at wide receiver. Every roster had one of Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, or Foster Moreau at tight end. The decision then became did you want to go with the more expensive Kenneth Walker or the cheaper Samaje Perine as a third running back. (Some teams were successful with a four-wide receiver build) That running back decision led to various wide receiver decisions such as having to play two value wide receivers or being able to get up to a high-dollar one like Davante Adams or DeAndre Hopkins. In the end, I thought Perine’s every down role was worth much more at $5,600 than Kenneth Walker’s at $6,900. Even despite the high projected total in the Seahawks-Raiders game, I felt confident that Perine could get more than 80% of Walker’s fantasy points at just 80% of the salary. But in hindsight, Hurst, Walker, and Tee Higgins would have been a great lineup as well.
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Week 13 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) is probably not necessary at this salary considering the strong floor of other quarterback options, but there is no denying his ceiling is as high as any player on this slate and the game environment is elite. The Chiefs and Bengals are currently projected for an implied 52.5 total on Sunday, with the Chiefs checking in as the highest team total (26.8). Last week’s 22.4 DK points were the first time since Week 6 that Mahomes did not have at least 30 fantasy points in a game. The Bengals are the third-worst matchup for quarterbacks this season, but this is Patrick Mahomes after all. It’s an upset if he doesn’t have the most raw quarterback points this week.
Joe Burrow ($6,900) is in line to be the most popular quarterback in cash games this week considering he is in the same game environment as Mahomes, has a strong team total (25.8), and Kansas City allows the ninth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year. The Chiefs rank 26th in opponent’s completion percentage over the last three weeks (70.2%) and that’s with the 58% Bryce Perkins game thrown in from Week 12. Conversely, the Bengals rank eighth in pass play percentage this year and Burrow will finally have his full arsenal of weapons back with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase scheduled to rejoin the team in Week 13.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) looks to be way too cheap considering the matchup against the Detroit Lions and the massive fantasy performance he put up against the Ravens last week. After 29 points in Week 12, Lawrence’s salary rose only $400 despite the fact that he has a dome matchup against the absolute worst defense in the league. Against quarterbacks, the Lions allow three more fantasy points per game than any other team. They allow the fourth-most passing yards per game and are 31st in opponents’ yards per completion this season. As the weekend begins, Lawrence is locked into my cash game lineup.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler ($8,500) is the name to pay up for this week if you’re going up to the top at running back or wide receiver. The skill set of Ekeler and how he excels in the passing game matches perfectly with how abysmal the Raiders are against pass-catching running backs. Las Vegas allows the third-most receptions, most receiving yards, and third-most receiving touchdowns to running backs this year. As a result, they allow the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Ekeler has seven games with at least seven receptions this season, but it’s not until you start comparing him to other elite receivers that you see the magnitude of what he brings to the table. Ekeler has 25 more targets (98) than any other running back. His 80 receptions this year would rank fourth among all wide receivers, behind only Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Stefon Diggs. This is the perfect spot and perfect game environment for Ekeler to thrive and he can easily pay off even an $8,500 salary.
David Montgomery ($6,200) really looked good against a very tough New York Jets rush defense last week. He rushed 14 times for 79 yards (5.6 per carry) and caught three balls for 34 yards. This week, the rushing lanes should be even wider for him against the Green Bay Packers. You may remember that the Eagles run over, around, and through the Packers on Sunday night, totaling 364 rushing yards in just that one game. The Packers have allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs this year (1,525 through 12 games) with only Houston giving up more. With no Khalil Herbert, Montgomery is the solo man in the backfield (80% and 68% snaps the last two weeks) and even with Justin Fields expected back, the rushing yards should be easy to come by for Montgomery
Travis Etienne ($6,400) is one of many, many Jaguars players who will show up on this list today. That’s what happens when you travel to a dome to play the Lions defense. And while I prefer the Jacksonville quarterback and pass-catchers to Etienne this week, I still find tremendous value in the Clemson running back product. On the season, the Lions allow the third-most rushing yards per game at 154.6 and that number has jumped up to over 170 in the last three weeks. Etienne has been limited in practice this week, but all indications are that he will play and carry a normal load. The good news for Week 12 is that he is now $700 cheaper than he was just two weeks ago.
Zonovan Knight ($4,600) will be the running back value play du jour should Michael Carter miss with an injury against the Vikings (Carter did not practice Thursday). In his first big role last week, he rushed 14 times for 69 yards (4.9 per carry) and also caught all three of his targets for 34 yards. Below $5,000 is a veritable wasteland of running backs this week, with the likes of Damian Hillard, Eno Benjamin, and Alexander Mattison living in that area. Knight will be about the only option below that threshold if he gets the starting gig again, and after blowing up in Week 12, why not give him another shot?
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100) could very well be the gift that keeps on giving this holiday season, Clark. Just like how he finished the 2021 season with six straight games with at least eight catches and 73 yards, St. Brown could be a late-season smash play over the next six weeks as well. That starts in Week 13 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Only the Vikings have allowed more receiving yards to wide receivers and only the Chiefs, Steelers, and Titans have allowed more wide receiver touchdowns than the Jaguars. St. Brown averages 10 targets per game over his last five and he finally had some positive touchdown regression come his way in Week 12. Expect more of the same coming up at a salary that is still less than it was in Weeks 3-5 this season.
Keenan Allen ($6,500) and the rest of the Chargers should have a massive game against Las Vegas considering what Geno Smith and the Seahawks just did to them last week. Justin Herbert is quite a bit better than Geno Smith, so I have full faith in Keenan Allen again this week, especially with Mike Williams continuing to be out. Las Vegas allows the highest opponents’ completion percentage this season by a wide margin (71.6%) but has somehow been even worse over the last three weeks (75%). Add that to Allen’s large target share and sure hands, and it’s a recipe for a nice fantasy outing for a player whose team total is now up to 26 points.
Christian Kirk ($6,300) and Zay Jones ($4,900) both have dream matchups this week against the hapless Detroit Lions and their weak secondary. They are both viable individually in cash games, and make for a nice double-stack with Trevor Lawrence in tournaments. After Kirk’s poor showing in Week 12 (8.1 DK points), the site actually dropped his salary by $200 despite this being the nuts matchup for wide receivers. The Lions have morphed into a bit of a pass-funnel defense over the last 10 Weeks, meaning they remain competent against the running game so opponents are beating them through the air. They rank 16th against opposing running backs for fantasy points allowed but rank just 31st against wide receivers. Don’t expect a repeat of Zay Jones’ career day in Week 12, but for the salary tag, it’s hard to go wrong with either of them.
Garrett Wilson ($5,300) must have loved seeing quarterback Mike White trot onto the field in Week 12 instead of Zach Wilson. It allowed Garrett Wilson to have a full-on breakout performance with eight targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Under Mike White, the Jets led the league in average yards per target last week (10.9 yards), which means White was able to lead Wilson well beyond the low 7.7-yard average depth of target the rookie wide receiver was forced to endure with Zach Wilson. The Vikings’ rush defense has been average this season, but they allow the fifth-most DK points to wide receivers, including the most overall receiving yards.
Tight End
Foster Moreau ($3,600) fits the bill for the types of builds that are available to us as the weekend draws near. We don’t have massive running back or wide receiver value available yet, so getting up to Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews hasn’t given me a lineup I love yet. But why pay $7,900 for Kelce when you can pay more than $4,000 less and get a guaranteed three catches for 40 yards!? Moreau does have at least five targets in three of his last five games and a touchdown in two of his last three. Plus, the Chargers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this year and Moreau still has no competition with Darren Waller out.
Hayden Hurst ($3,500) was the key to unlocking the best teams in cash this week. For Week 13, he gets a downgrade with Chase coming back, but a huge upgrade with the game environment, pace of play, and the fact that Hurst has at least four targets in four of his last eight games. Below Hurst, things really start to get dicey at tight end so he is about as low as I am willing to go this week. But Hurst has less than eight fantasy points just once in five games, so the floor is solid for $3,500.
Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh DST ($2,600) gets to tee off against an Atlanta Falcons team that is 21st in turnover committed per game (1.3) and 29th in quarterback sack percentage (8.9%) this year. At just $2,600, the price is right for allowing you to fit multiple other high-salary pieces in your lineup. With T.J. Watt back in the lineup, this is a much more formidable team up front, and they will be able to prevent the Falcons from running all over them as well.
New York Jets DST ($2,600) has under-the-radar scored at least eight DraftKings points in eight of their last nine games. They now get a Minnesota Vikings team that ranks third on the season in pass play percentage (63.8%). More drop-backs against this fast, hard-nosed defense mean a greater opportunity for sacks and interceptions at a very low salary considering their recent successes.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. If Michael Carter and James Robinson are out for this week against the Vikings, I have a feeling this build (with maybe a slight variation) will be very popular. A more balanced approach at running back instead of cheap Knight and expensive Ekeler would be a way to get slightly different.
