DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 14
The NFL Week 14 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With thirteen weeks’ worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
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Week 13 Results
Below are my cash game results in Week 12 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 430/6896
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 259/3448
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 383/5747
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 660/11314
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 320/4597
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 468/6896
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 180/2873
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 379/7200
For my own personal cash lineup in Week 13, it was all about taking a risk. I REALLY wanted either Austin Ekeler ($8,500) or Josh Jacobs ($7.900) in my lineup. They both had matchups and roles that I thought would be quite easy to pay off their salaries in a PPR format, but I just could not make it work. I did not like what I had to sacrifice at wide receiver. I was not one of the many that were on board the Nico Collins hype train, so was very happy with the production I got out of my wide receivers. In hindsight, playing Travis Etienne along with Christian Kirk was a bad idea. He had the injury scare the week prior, and Detroit had actually been good against running backs lately. I should have probably gone up to Jacobs and gone down from Kirk to a $5,000 receiver, but Kirk’s big day made up for the mistake. The Hayden Hurst injury was a bummer since he had 3.2 points in the first half of the first quarter, but many were burned by the Kenneth Walker injury, so I won’t complain too much.
Week 13 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Joe Burrow ($7,000) was the key to cash games last week, as many expected him to be. After 30 DraftKings points including 332 total yards, two passing touchdowns, and a rushing score, the question is can he repeat the performance against Cleveland for just $100 more than Week 13? What is helping prop up Burrow’s production the last three weeks is the combination of 30+ pass attempts every game plus an average of eight rushing attempts and 28 rushing yards per game. At this points, Burrow should be $7,500 quarterback (or higher), but his salary has only gone up $500 since Week 8.
Jared Goff ($5,600) has some absolutely wild home-road splits this year. On the road, Goff averages just 227 passing yards per game and has thrown only two touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Compare that to 270 yards per game plus a 17:4 touchdown to interception ratio at home, and Goff basically is Joe Montana at Ford Field this season. We will certainly take those splits as he hosts the Minnesota Vikings in the best game environment of the week. This game has a 51.5 implied total and just a two-point spread. The Viking are now bottom-five against quarterbacks this year, so Goff is looking like the best cash game option at the position as we enter the weekend.
Tyler Huntley ($5,500) did make plenty of mistakes in his four starts last year (as we will see in the DST section), but he also did some very good things that help him fly past the value we need at just $5,500 this week. Huntley averaged 60 rushing yards per game, doing his best Lamar Jackson impression when he was out there. Huntley also had four total touchdowns in his four starts, so assuming one touchdown and 60 rushing yards you are already getting a 10-point floor. Start adding in passing yards and it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where he gets to 16-18 DraftKings points.
Running Back
Derrick Henry ($7,900) has really been a tamed beast over the last month, with three of his games checking in under 55 rushing yards and no touchdowns. But those games were against the Broncos, Eagles, and Bengals, three of this year’s toughest defenses. Now he gets the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, which should be a cause for a feast. In his career against the Jaguars, Henry averages 104 yards and more than one touchdown per game. He torches them for 5.37 yards per carry in those games. This year should be more of the same. The Jags allow the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs and have allowed 139 rushing yards per game in their last three contests.
Joe Mixon ($6,900) should be back from his concussion this week, just in time to face one of the best possible matchups in the Cleveland Browns. The Browns allow the sixth-most rushing yards, the third-most touchdowns, and the fourth-most DraftKings points on the season. Because of the concussion, his salary dropped from $7,400 since the last time we saw him. You’re likely not starting Mixon and Burrow in the same lineup, but it’s really the craziest idea in the world. With Burrow’s increased rushing share and Mixon’s increased role in the passing game, you could corner the market on both aspects of the game for the Bengals on Sunday. Monitor the health reports and the news on this backfield. There is a chance Samaje Perine still plays a big role after strong performances the last two weeks.
Miles Sanders ($6,200) doesn’t often get a DraftKings recommendation because he could clock in with a stone-cold zero in the passing game. But Sanders benefits from playing on an Eagles team that really is maximizing their offensive game plan to expose their opponents’ weaknesses. Against the New York Giants, the Eagles are likely to deploy more of a ground attack similar to what they did against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago. The Giants allow the fifth-most rushing yards this year while only seeing the tenth-most rush attempts. The G-Men are a top-ten team against wide receivers, so I fully expect this to be a Jalen Hurts/Miles Sanders game.
D’Andre Swift ($5,800) represents the salary floor for running backs this week unless we get some unexpected value open up over the weekend. Swift is priced lower than guys like Perine and Isiah Pacheco who have been value running backs over the last couple of weeks, but the usage in Week 13 was back more in line with Swift’s best days. Swift saw 14 rush attempts for the first time since Week 1 and six targets for just the second time this year. His 51% snap share was his second-highest on the year and he even saw a goal-line attempt for a score. The Lions have been signaling that Swift is back to full health and he will be used more. We should take advantage this week before the salary shoots back up.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson ($9,000) gets the high-priced nod at the position this week, not just because of the game environment, but because Detroit has morphed into a pure pass funnel as of late. The Lions are now a top-12 defense against running backs on the season, but that is far from the truth against wideouts. Detroit allows the fourth-most DK points to the position this year, and they allow 252.5 passing yards per game, the sixth-most this season. At home in the dome, it’s even worse. The Lions give up 275 passing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL. It will be tough to fit Jefferson into many lineups this week, but if value opens up over the weekend, he is a top priority in the upper range.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) will be in this article from now until the day he retires, apparently. He continues to pile up targets, receptions, touchdowns, and fantasy points yet is still not above $8,000. This game environment on Sunday, as we know from Swift and Goff, is elite, but for Detroit wide receivers, it may be even better. The Vikings allow the most receptions and receiving yards to the position, as well as the second-most DK points. Over the last three weeks, only the Chargers and Jaguars allow a higher yards per completion rate than Minnesota. We need to just keep playing St. Brown until he reaches $9,000.
Garrett Wilson ($5,900) needs to take some of that first-round rookie contract and buy Mike White a nice watch or something. White is earning Wilson even more money in the future with how they are connecting over the last two weeks. Zach Wilson was swapped out two weeks ago, as you may have heard. In the Jets’ seven games prior to the change, Wilson averaged just 3.7 receptions and 45.6 yards per game with zero touchdowns. In the two games Wilson has had with Mike White under center, Wilson has 6.5 catches, 128.5 yards per game, and two scores. It’s uncanny how much better Wilson has been, and he is worth much more than $5,900.
D.J. Moore ($5,500) also has a little bit of that Garrett Wilson situation going on. Right before the Panthers’ bye week, they made a quarterback change to Sam Darnold and straight up waived Baker Mayfield. Moore took notice of this clearly. In his first game with Darnold this year, Moore led the league in the share of his team’s air yards and posted 103 yards and a score on six targets. That came on the heels of three straight games averaging three catches and 25.7 receiving yards per game under Mayfield. We know Moore has way more talent than his $5,500 salary suggests, and now he might have a (somewhat) competent quarterback throwing him the ball.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson ($5,100) gets all the standard caveats about the Vikings-Lions game environment, but then also can throw a little revenge game narrative on top for good measure. I still don’t understand why the Lions traded him in their own division, but all I do need to understand is that Hockenson has been killing it since he arrived. He has at least six targets and four catches in five straight games. For the Lions, they are just flat-out terrible against tight ends, allowing the second-most touchdowns and fifth-most fantasy points to that position this year.
Pat Freiermuth ($4,500) has seen quite the uptick in usage ever since Chase Claypool left town at the trade deadline. In his last six games, Freiermuth averages seven targets, five receptions, and 60 yards per game. He also has seen over nine yards per reception in each of those games. None of those catches have resulted in him visiting the end zone, but that regression is coming and one of these long passes is going to find him in the end zone soon.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400) is getting close to last-man-standing status in Denver with Courtland Sutton doubtful and unlikely to play in Sunday’s matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. Jerry Jeudy has also been a limited participant in practice this week and carries a Questionable tag ahead of Sunday. With the lack of bodies around, Dulcich crushed last week with eight targets, six catches, and 85 yards. The Chiefs are now tied for last in the league, allowing two passing touchdowns per game to their opponents, so here is hoping Russell Wilson remembers how to throw a football this week and can connect with Dulcich in the end zone for one.
Defense/Special Teams
Tampa Bay DST ($2,900) is about to find out whether Brock is Purdy, Purdy good or if he is a third-string quarterback for a reason. The last three regulation games Tampa Bay has played, they have held their opponent under 17 points each time (they also held Cleveland to 16 points in regulation, but that game went into overtime). Also in their five games, the Bucs have 16 sacks and two takeaways. The 49ers could just give Christian McCaffrey the ball 30 times in this one, but the salary here is cheap enough to bet on Brock Purdy making a couple mistakes in his first-ever NFL start.
Pittsburgh DST ($2,800) was the chalky DST last week and now that they are matched up against backup Tyler Huntley this week, they likely are headed in that direction again. In Huntley’s four starts last year, he threw four interceptions and took a whopping 15 sacks. Huntley will of course run from time to time, but he is inexperienced enough as a passer that the pocket can quickly break down around him.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. This sample lineup gets pieces from the best DFS game of the day in Minnesota-Detroit. I wish I could get up to Jefferson or Hockenson here, but with running back prices so tight, it’s tough to find a spend-up this week from the Vikings. I don’t absolutely love Sanders here, so I will be shopping around for some potential swaps there.
